Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kelleys Island, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Primarily light snow showers will persist across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania into Thursday night with minimal impacts expected.

2) A more prolonged period of above average temperatures will return this weekend and continue into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1

Regional satellite and radar observations reveal mid-level moisture returning across the region, resulting in drizzle transitioning back to generally light snow showers across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. The 850 mb air mass will gradually become colder over the next 12 hours, dropping from about -10 degrees C this afternoon to near -15 degrees C by early Thursday morning.

Although Lake Erie remains ice covered, lake-induced moisture from Lake Huron should allow snow showers to persist across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through much of Thursday. At least initially, poor moisture within the DGZ should largely limit efficient snow processes into this evening. As the air mass cools overnight, DGZ moisture will increase, particularly across inland Northwest Pennsylvania where 1 to 2 inches of snow could fall by Thursday morning.
Otherwise, generally limited accumulations are expected as temperatures remain rather marginal amidst weak snowfall rates.

KEY MESSAGE 2
Above average temperatures are poised to return by Saturday as a large upper-level ridge begins to take shape across much of the Central and Eastern CONUS. This upper-level ridge will likely remain in place into Tuesday, though may begin to briefly break down as a strong trough approaches the Midwest by Wednesday.

In terms of temperatures, highs in the low to mid-40s for the weekend will increase further into the upper 40s to lower 50s by early next week. Minimal precipitation is expected through Tuesday which does bode well for a gradual thawing of ice on area rivers and a melting snowpack.

AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/
MVFR will be pretty prevalent through Thursday afternoon as clouds hang tough before gradually improving to VFR from west to east as high pressure builds into the region. KTOL and KFDY have the best chance to see VFR by mid to late afternoon, but the other sites may stay mainly MVFR until after the TAF period.
Light lake-effect snow showers will continue in NE Ohio and NW PA tonight and Thursday morning, gradually diminishing through the afternoon. These could bring brief IFR visibilities, with the greatest potential for this occurring at KYNG. Otherwise, it will mainly be nuisance snow.

NW winds will diminish to 5-10 knots tonight, with NW winds then continuing to average 5-10 knots Thursday.

Outlook...Non-VFR is possible with rain on Sunday.

MARINE
Lake Erie remains mostly ice-covered. West-northwest winds of around 15 to 20 knots will gradually diminish to less than 10 knots by Thursday night as high pressure to our west gradually builds in and becomes centered over the area. High pressure departs to the east on Friday, allowing southwest winds of around 15 knots to develop.
There are a few models that depict stronger winds of 20 to 25 knots, which could increase the risk of cracks developing in the ice on Lake Erie and shifting northeastward away from the shoreline. Winds generally weaken over the weekend, with westerly flow on Saturday changing over to easterly flow on Sunday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.