Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kelleys Island, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Weak ridging quickly exits, giving way to southwesterly flow aloft, a trough axis moving southwest to northeast, and positive vorticity advection into the western zones after 15Z Tuesday. This will start the first of the POPs into the CWA with the patchy vorticity aloft.
A well defined area of frontogenesis will develop with the trough axis itself a few hours later and becomes the primary source of forcing for shower activity after 18Z. With the track of the associated surface low west to east south of the area, the main thunderstorm threat should stay south with the warm sector that will not make it to our CWA Shower activity will become more scattered beyond 06Z Wednesday with another upper level trough axis in the area and the surface low departing to the east. Total QPF through Wednesday pushes an inch and a half in the southeastern zones. This low pressure system will also reinforce the northerly winds in the region with high pressure moving into western Lake Superior and the cooler temperatures. Temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s Tuesday into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A surface low will continue to meander across the area Wednesday night into Thursday, eventually settling near the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday. Once the low shifts towards the coast, a surface trough is expected to linger across the area through the remainder of the short term period. A series of shortwave upper-level troughs will move along the periphery of the larger trough, bringing additional support across the area for widespread showers to persist through Friday. There will likely be periodic breaks in precipitation Thursday night as the center of the low and areas of subsidence progress east directly over the area. By Friday night, models are in decent agreement that the center of the aforementioned low will shift east of the area, allowing for a surface trough to linger. As a northwest flow develops with this trough, 850mb temperatures of -1 to 0C will push over a relatively warm lake (14 to 15C) will result in weak lake induced instability and allow to a transition of lake enhanced rain showers Friday night. When all is said and done, most of the area should see between 0.25-0.5" of new precipitation during the short term period, with higher totals across the eastern portion of the area. Locally higher amounts are possible where persistent lake enhanced showers occur or within any convection that develops. Overall, little to no impacts should be observed from these showers. High temperatures through the period will be below average, climbing into the 50s both days. Overnight lows will gradually cool from the upper 40s to low 50s Wednesday night to the low to mid 40s Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
On Saturday, lingering showers are possible, especially across the eastern portion of the CWA as a surface trough slowly drift east.
Overall moisture this weekend will diminish, allowing for any showers activity to dwindle to isolated to scattered showers at best. Not expecting a complete wash out this weekend unless the aforementioned low pressure system slows its progression east. By Saturday night into Sunday/Monday, models continue to suggest a weak high pressure system and associated ridge building over the area, allowing for a period of predominately dry conditions. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty on the timing of the high settling over the area, so opted for some slight chance to chance shower mention through Monday, with highest probability focused in the afternoon hours. Highs over the weekend will gradually warm from the low to mid 60s on Saturday into the upper 60s to low 70s on Monday.
Overnight lows will linger in the 40s.

AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
A warm front to the west will continue its push towards the southern Great Lakes today, bringing showers along with lowering ceilings through the forecast period. TAF sites in the western areas will see shower activity and lowering ceilings first, and be the terminals that get down to IFR cloud bases as far east as CLE and MFD. Shower coverage will increase substantially across the area and winds will be primarily easterly around 10kts.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic rain showers and isolated thunderstorms later Tuesday night through Saturday.

MARINE
Low pressure currently centered over the Midwest will gradually push east into the Ohio River Valley today and linger into Friday. The initial positioning of the low will allow for increase winds from the northeast today to 15-25 knots. These winds will result in waves building to 4-6 feet, with the highest waves across the central and western basins. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued through Wednesday for the western basin and with this update has been expected to include the central basin as well. As the center of the low becomes centered near Lake Erie, winds will gradually weaken and rotate to become sustained from the northwest by Thursday morning. Winds will gradually increase to 15-20 knots late Thursday into Friday. This period will be marginal for any headlines needed, although given the onshore flow, cannot rule out the need of a short duration Small Craft Advisory late Thursday through Friday. A trough will linger into the weekend before high pressure builds across the lake sometime this weekend. Expect winds of 5-10 knots to persist across Lake Erie through this weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142>144.