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LMZ046 Expires:202310040215;;439895 Fzus53 Kiwx 031933 Nshiwx
nearshore marine forecast national weather service northern indiana 333 pm edt Tue oct 3 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
lmz043-046-040215- new buffalo mi to st joseph mi-michigan city in to new buffalo mi- 333 pm edt Tue oct 3 2023
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 49 degrees and at michigan city is 48 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 031854 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 254 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Dry and warm for one more day until rain approaches the area Wednesday night. Periods of rain, and perhaps a rumble of thunder prevail through Thursday night. This tapers off to lake effect rain showers later Friday and through the weekend. Notably cooler starting Friday as well.

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Near-record high temperatures again this afternoon (less so Fort Wayne where the record is 91 in 1898) beneath high pressure centered over western PA. Patchy fog was only noted over Angola this morning, with other sites reporting visibility generally greater than two or three miles. Therefore, will omit fog from the forecast tonight with continued drying.

Remaining dry and warm again Wednesday afternoon, though high clouds will likely sneak into western Indiana late in the afternoon. The in- house blend seems too aggressive with this cloudiness when compared to operational runs. So, I did temper this down a bit.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

A period of rainy and cooler conditions lie ahead. The upper-level trough responsible is currently swirling just north of the Great Basin with an excellent moisture stream from the eastern Pacific.
Rain arrives from west to east near or just after daybreak Thursday.
There is a low chance of thunder on Thursday; instability is weak as are lapse rates. Rain along the cold front exits the forecast area late-morning Friday, but the upper-level low wraps up and crashes through the region beginning Friday night with additional rain chances and perhaps an improved chance of thunder. Notably colder on Friday with high temperatures in the 50s.

This upper-level low brings a reinforcing shot of cold air over a mild Lake Michigan resulting in high confidence lake effect rain showers Friday night through perhaps most of Sunday until low-level flow backs.

Forecast rain totals through Friday vary notably with some guidance favoring a heavy rain axis near Lake Michigan, while others favor the US 24 corridor. Periods of heavy rain look favorable based on boundary-parallel flow, small dew point depressions aloft, and 90th percentile precipitable water values. The latest WPC QPF forecast is picking up on this with a wide area of rain totals generally near an inch. Lake effect rain that follows will increase totals in northwest flow regions of Lake Michigan.

Temperatures look to trend closer to normal (though still shy of the 65 degree normal high) early next week as 850-mb temperatures warm and the broad trough aloft lifts northeast.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

VFR conditions for both sites persist through the evening and overnight. There may be a few high clouds at or above 25 kft tonight. No fog is expected. Clouds move in from west to east on Wednesday, as winds shift to become more southwesterly. Winds will be sustained at 12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt by the end of the TAR period.



IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

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Northern Indiana, IN,