Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Long Beach, IN

UPDATE
Issued at 745 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Fairly complicated set up here in the short term for here in northern Indiana. Which is probably not so much for forecasters for locations across the High Plains in which these very dry low level convective events are more commonplace. We have the synoptic winds from the southwest being amplified by convective outflows. These winds have then been kicking up dust/dirt back over central IL and has pushed this dust into northern IN with even some additional dust being added locally. Did address the wind/dust potential initially with an SPS but with the increase in wind speeds/dust decided to go with a combination of Severe Thunderstorm warnings for the winds and a blowing dust advisory for of course the dust. This is one event that will stand out in the future for sure.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

A shortwave, 70-80 kt 500 mb jet, and an attendant cold front track through this evening into the early overnight through the base of an Upper Midwest upper low. The associated shot of deeper ascent and some low level moisture return with a developing low level jet should bring a period of scattered showers/storms to most of the area this evening. Still cannot rule out a few strong to severe storms, mainly south of US 24, as shear profiles are favorable for organized convection. Instability is the limiting factor however with MLCIN and dry air to overcome, though incoming height falls/cooling aloft, and some last minute low level theta-e advection, should eventually allow updrafts to break the cap with MLCAPE potentially surging into the 1000-1500 j/kg range (highest southeast of US 24). High DCAPE with steep 0-3km lapse rates favor a downburst wind threat if any multicell clusters/lines emerge. Overall confidence in anything more than isolated strong to severe cells is low, with greater probs for severe storms off to the south near the primary moisture/instability axis.

Cold advection on the southern fringes of a stacked low moving east through the Great Lakes region will provide significantly cooler and breezy conditions post-frontal later tonight into Saturday. Cyclonic flow around the low will also allow stratocu to build in for a time, especially north of US 30 where non zero chances for a rogue sprinkle/shower will exist. Sunday is definitely the preferred weekend day weather-wise as high pressure nudges in from the north with sunshine, lighter winds and slightly warmer temps.

Next week continues to look wet at times as an upper low cuts off and slowly tracks east through the Central US and Great Lakes. The greatest chances for rain are the Tuesday through Thursday periods, with temperatures generally below average for mid-late May.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 757 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Complicated TAF period at least in the short term with southerly gusty winds being amplified by thunderstorm outflows and also kicking up dust and locally dropping vsbys due to the blowing dust. This will be expected through 03z Sat for KSBN and 04z KFWA. Will continue to monitor as this may take a bit longer to push through. Wind gusts up to 35 kts expected with slightly higher gusts possible at times through 04z Sat. South to southwesterly Winds back to more westerly late in the period and slightly decrease through the remainder of the TAF period. Gusts still expected around 25 kts.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...Blowing Dust Advisory until 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening for INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103- 104-116-203-204-216.
OH...Blowing Dust Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for OHZ001- 002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Blowing Dust Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046.