Tuesday, January19, 2021
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Long Beach, IN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:48PM Tuesday January 19, 2021 11:10 AM CST (17:10 UTC) Moonrise 11:52AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 1046 Am Est Tue Jan 19 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Rest of today..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Snow through midnight, then a chance of snow after midnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..West wind 10 to 15 knots backing southwest 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots becoming after midnight. Gusts up to 30 knots. Mostly clear through midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet. The water temperature at st. Joseph is 37 degrees and at michigan city is 35 degrees.
LMZ046 Expires:202101192330;;164444 FZUS53 KIWX 191546 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1046 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-192330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Beach, IN
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location: 41.74, -86.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 191100 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 600 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 310 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

A quick round of snow will move through beginning this afternoon in northwest Indiana, spreading eastward through the evening. The greatest snow totals are expected in southwest Michigan as some lake enhanced snow develops. Snow will exit overnight.

SHORT TERM. (Today and Tonight) Issued at 310 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

Another quick round of snow will move through with the greatest totals expected in Berrien and Cass (MI) counties. Snow will begin near the afternoon drive time and taper off late Tuesday night (west to east). Totals of 2-4" are expected in the aformentioned counties, with, broadly speaking, 1-2" of snow along U.S. 20 but west of I-69. Elsewhere, 1 inch or less is expected. The nitty-gritty details follow:

There are two features to monitor over the next 24 hours. The first is a weak surface low and fading vort max aloft that has spawned an area of light snow near La Crosse, WI early this morning. This feature will weaken as it moves east. However, I cannot completely rule out some of these snow showers surviving into our northwest CWA late this afternoon. Any radar returns will likely work to saturate our currently-dry airmass.

The main show is a robust wave quickly dropping through the Dakotas. It has a fairly impressive representation on Infrared Satellite, with cloud tops of -40C. This afternoon and evening, the left exit region of an 80 knot jet at 500mb will move through our CWA. This jet will intensify this evening toward 90+ knots, indicating a dynamic clipper. Cross sections confirm this by showing frontogenesis at both 700mb and in a layer from 500-300mb. While much of these f-gen areas reside outside of the DGZ, a reduced gradient in theta-e is noted within the DGZ indicative of some instability there, and there is favorable omega within the DGZ. Lastly, saturation is noted in the lowest 700mb and steep lapse rates at times.

In coordination with Grand Rapids, we opted to hoist an advisory to highlight: 1) the impacts to the afternoon/evening commute, and 2) the snow's intensity. We are cognizant that recent short waves have not performed as well as we expected, but the upper-level support is improved in this scenario, among the other factors noted above.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 310 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

Any lingering lake effect snow toward southwest Michigan will ease Wednesday morning as ridging move in. Zonal flow follows by nightfall which keep conditions mostly quiet through the end of the week. I cannot rule out another round of lake effect snow Thursday night into Friday thanks to a reinforcing shot of cold air down the lake and surface high pressure moving in over the western Great Lakes.

The upper-air pattern amplifies by the weekend with a trough in the west and a ridge over the east. A cut off low near the Baja really throws a wrench into how this upper-air pattern will evolve. A second wrench is a wobbling upper-level low over the Canadian Prairies. These features will be critical in steering any potential storms tracking through the Central US.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued at 600 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

Upstream clipper disturbance over SD will continue rapidly sewd this period and spread another brief but intense band of snow across the terminals this evening. MVFR stratocu had decayed near term as expected yet leading mid level moisture plume will take its place through daybreak. Otherwise rapid deterioration in flight conditions expected 22-00Z as arc of warm advection induced snow spreads across the terminals. Lake enhancement invof of KSBN portents a period of at least IFR restriction if not LIFR and this may extend across the KFWA terminal for a time given trending signals in highres guidance as they relate to intense warm advection snow burst.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ077-078.

OH . NONE. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ043-046.



SYNOPSIS . Brown SHORT TERM . Brown LONG TERM . Brown AVIATION . T

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook . Twitter . and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 2 mi41 min SW 9.9 G 12 25°F 17°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 16 mi41 min SW 6 G 7 26°F 1022.7 hPa
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 32 mi71 min WSW 18 G 21 31°F 1021 hPa (+0.3)
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 35 mi53 min SSW 7 G 11 25°F 1021.8 hPa18°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 39 mi41 min WSW 9.9 G 11 26°F 20°F
CNII2 40 mi26 min W 8 G 8.9 25°F 17°F
OKSI2 42 mi131 min W 2.9 G 15 27°F
FSTI2 44 mi131 min 25°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN4 mi76 minWSW 710.00 miOvercast25°F18°F74%1022.7 hPa
Valparaiso Porter County Municipal Airport, IN21 mi75 minWSW 119.00 miOvercast23°F18°F81%1023.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGC

Wind History from MGC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW6W6SW6SW5SW6SW6SW5SW7SW7SW5CalmNW4W4W4W5W5W7SW5SW5SW7SW7SW7SW7SW6
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.