Friday, January22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bertsch-Oceanview, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 5:23PM Friday January 22, 2021 9:02 AM PST (17:02 UTC) Moonrise 12:36PMMoonset 2:14AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 821 Am Pst Fri Jan 22 2021
.hazardous seas warning in effect through this evening...
Today..N wind 10 to 20 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt late afternoon. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, nw wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. Mixed swell W 7 to 9 ft at 10 seconds and W 4 to 6 ft at 15 seconds. Slight chance of showers through the day.
Tonight..N wind 15 to 25 kt...becoming 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. Mixed swell nw 5 to 7 ft at 10 seconds and nw 5 to 6 ft at 14 seconds.
Sat..N wind 15 to 20 kt...becoming 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to nw 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. Mixed swell nw 5 to 6 ft at 9 seconds and nw 5 ft at 13 seconds.
Sat night..N wind 15 to 25 kt...becoming ne 10 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 5 to 15 kt... Veering to ne 5 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 7 ft. Chance of rain.
Sun..Northern portion, se wind 15 kt...veering to nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Brookings southward, se wind 5 to 10 kt in the morning...becoming variable less than 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 7 ft. Rain.
Sun night..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. NW swell 13 to 15 ft. Showers likely.
Mon..N wind 15 kt...backing to nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon and evening, then...veering to N after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft...becoming 2 ft or less. NW swell 15 ft.
Tue..NE wind 5 kt...becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon, then... Rising to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 9 ft. NW swell 13 ft...becoming W 10 ft.
PZZ300 821 Am Pst Fri Jan 22 2021
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Later today, warning level seas will develop as multiple swell trains move into the waters and north winds increase further. High pressure builds in Saturday and conditions improve some north of cape blanco. South of cape blanco, continued north winds will maintain very steep and hazardous seas. Winds increase, possibly to gales, Sunday as a strong cold front moves through the waters. A high and steep northwest swell is expected to follow Sunday afternoon into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bertsch-Oceanview, CA
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location: 41.75, -124.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 221127 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 327 AM PST Fri Jan 22 2021

DISCUSSION. A low pressure center is moving south about 100 NM offshore, currently off the Del Norte County coast, and the associated front is positioned over the coast. The low will continue south, so the front will not progress any further inland because the upper level support is diminishing. The rain produced by this front was mostly orographic driven. Red Mound RAWS has reported 0.41" and there are scattered reports of a few hundreths along the Coast Range north to about Humbug Mountain. Most of the rain falling over the valleys of Jackson and Josephine County is encountering a fairly deep dry layer almost 10 kft deep and turning to virga. This will saturate throughout this morning, allowing for the possibility of some sprinkles reaching the surface later in the day, though the chance of rain is quite low.

Cold air aloft will remain over the area Friday, creating an environment conducive for convection. Shower activity will peak in the afternoon, mostly over higher terrain, and diminish Friday evening as an upper ridge moves into the area from the west. Amounts will continue to be light. Snow levels will rise from 3000 feet overnight to between 3500 and 4000 feet by the afternoon.

A ridge will swiftly build over the region on Saturday, keeping the region dry, then just as hastily progress east. The ridging could allow for stratus and fog/freezing fog in west side valleys and the Klamath Basin, including along the Sprague River.

The remainder of the discussion is from the Thursday evening AFD . A short wave will ride over the ridge and this system will support the next front, which will move onshore Sunday. This front will be significantly stronger than the current system. This will bring the best chance for valley snows so far this year. Snow levels will largely be around 2000 feet early, so the low passes may see some impacts, including Hayes Hill, Siskiyou and Sexton Summits. The dry air in place may allow evaporative cooling in the lower layers of the atmosphere, which may bring snow levels down to the west side valley floors. That first shot won't last long, and the precipitation will change to rain. After the front moves through, it will change back to snow in post-frontal showers that will linger into Monday morning. Right now, there is a 60% chance for this scenario, while there is a 40% chance of snow occurring during the entire event everywhere except for the coast. However, even in the latter scenario, accumulations will not occur during the day, although some may occur at night. Overall amounts are not expected to be high, even in the mountains, but valley snow is always impactful.

Passing short waves will support shower activity into Monday night, then showers will diminish as an upper level ridge moves through. The break will be short though.

Long term discussion from the Thursday afternoon AFD . Tue 26 Jan through Thu 28 Jan 2021. As we head into Tuesday next week the system that moves in comes in unlike the systems that precede it through the weekend and very early next week. Previous systems ahead of this one were in northwest flow at 700 mb, while the one moving in on Tuesday sees the more usual southerly 700 mb flow. However, where the usual strong southerly flow brings warmer temperatures and higher snow levels, except for where the precipitation rates are very high like the Mt. Shasta region, cold air will be wrapped around the upper trough, bringing continued cold temperatures at ridge levels and higher.

As the front moves in Tuesday afternoon 850 mb temperatures are in the -3 to -5C range, which is very unusually cold for this type of strong southerly flow system. This will continue lower snow levels with this system, but with the stronger southerly flow orographic effects will be more dominant, with the bulk of the precipitation in Northern California, especially in the Salmon and Scott Mountains and the Mt Shasta Region, which could see possible amounts of near a foot or more. Heavy precipitation rates are possible on the Slater fire and the Red Salmon Complex Tuesday, but debris flow problems are not expected as the bulk of the precipitation will be as snow with snow levels of 1500 to 2000 ft during this time.

Previous EC runs showed very little precipitation, but the latest run came very much in line with with the GFS and confidence has increased to Moderate, say 40-50%, in these areas and out of our forecast area in the northern Sierras for this system. An active pattern with snow levels occasionally a bit higher will persist into the end of next week. Sven

AVIATION. For the 22/06Z TAFs . VFR will prevail for most areas late this evening and it will remain that way overnight over the east side. However, low pressure offshore will move southward. Rain is occurring along the coast currently (especially from around Bandon southward) along with MVFR and local IFR ceilings. This precipitation will spread inland by Friday morning, but it will be mostly on the light side. Expect MVFR ceilings and areas of higher terrain obscured over to around the Cascades Friday. Some lower ceilings and isolated showers could also reach Klamath Falls in the afternoon. Ceilings could be slow to break in North Bend, Medford and Roseburg, but VFR is expected to return mid-late afternoon. Showers by then should be focused in the mountains and areas south and east. -Spilde

MARINE. Updated 200 AM PST Friday, 22 Jan 2021 . Low pressure will continue to move south of the area this morning. North winds will gradually increase and conditions will become hazardous to small craft this morning. Behind this low, warning level seas will develop late this morning due to mixed swell and steep wind waves as multiple swell trains move into the waters and north winds increase further today. High pressure builds in Saturday and conditions improve some north of Cape Blanco. South of Cape Blanco, continued north winds will maintain very steep and hazardous seas. Winds increase, possibly to gales, Sunday as a strong cold front moves through the waters. A high and steep northwest swell is expected to follow Sunday afternoon into Monday. /BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-356-370. Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM PST Saturday for PZZ376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 0 mi44 min NE 4.1 G 6 41°F 51°F1013.5 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 13 mi22 min NNW 16 G 19 51°F1013.8 hPa
TDPC1 48 mi32 min 50°F
46244 - Humboldt Bay, North Spit, CA 60 mi36 min 52°F10 ft

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA4 mi66 minNNE 53.00 miFog/Mist43°F41°F93%1013.6 hPa
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR23 mi66 minN 310.00 miOvercast44°F40°F85%1013.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCEC

Wind History from CEC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE5S10S10S13S15S15S13S14S13S10SE14SW10
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W8E6E5E5SE3NE5NE6NE5NE5N3NE5
1 day agoE5NE4NW3CalmNW6NW5NW7N3N4N3CalmCalmE4NE3E3E4SE4SE5CalmE4E5SE4CalmCalm
2 days agoE13NE9E7NE7NE9NE9NE5NE6NE5NE8NE7E65NE8NE8NE7NE7E8SE5E5E6E6E4E6

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:14 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:17 AM PST     6.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:37 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:35 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:43 PM PST     1.55 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:20 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:16 PM PST     4.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.64.14.95.76.36.66.565.14.132.21.71.61.92.53.23.94.34.64.54.33.9

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:15 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:18 AM PST     6.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:38 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:35 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:47 PM PST     1.55 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:19 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:17 PM PST     4.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.33.54.14.95.66.36.66.565.24.13.12.21.71.61.82.43.13.84.34.64.54.34

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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