Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bertsch-Oceanview, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 8:49PM Monday July 13, 2020 6:38 PM PDT (01:38 UTC) Moonrise 12:12AMMoonset 1:21PM Illumination 38% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 214 Pm Pdt Mon Jul 13 2020
.gale warning in effect through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..NW wind 30 kt...becoming N after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, nw wind 30 kt...easing to 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 6 to 9 ft. SW swell 1 ft at 14 seconds.
Tue..N wind 25 kt...rising to 30 kt in the afternoon. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, nw wind 15 to 20 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 6 to 9 ft. SW swell 1 ft at 14 seconds... Shifting to the W at 13 seconds in the afternoon.
Tue night..N wind 30 kt except nw 20 to 25 kt within 5 nm of brookings southward. Wind waves 7 to 10 ft. W swell 1 ft at 13 seconds.
Wed..N wind 15 to 25 kt...rising to 30 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 7 to 10 ft. W swell 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..N wind 30 kt...easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 7 to 10 ft. W swell 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..N wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 5 to 8 ft. W swell 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..NW wind 20 to 25 kt...becoming N 10 to 20 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, nw wind 15 to 20 kt...becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 7 ft...subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. W swell 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..N wind 20 kt...rising to 25 kt in the afternoon and evening, then...easing to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 4 ft... Building to 6 ft in the afternoon, then... Building to 8 ft in the evening...subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. NW swell 4 ft.
Sat..N wind 25 kt. Wind waves 7 ft...building to 9 ft in the evening, then...subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. NW swell 3 ft.
PZZ300 214 Pm Pdt Mon Jul 13 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. A thermal trough will strengthen into Wednesday. This will result in steep to very steep seas with an area of gales south of cape blanco beyond 3 nm from shore. The thermal trough is expected to move inland Thursday with a slight and brief improvement in conditions. Seas are likely to gradually increase late in the week as high pressure centered far offshore builds.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bertsch-Oceanview, CA
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location: 41.75, -124.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 132152 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 252 PM PDT Mon Jul 13 2020

DISCUSSION.

The biggest story for this week and probably most of next week will be the abnormally warm temperatures as highs push into the mid 90's and up to 100 degrees in some of our northern California valleys. We evaluated the heat risk on Wednesday and it appears that overnight lows are cool enough in addition to high temperatures just not being warm enough to warrant a heat advisory on Wednesday. High temperatures will also push into the lower 80's around Brookings as offshore flow will be strong under this thermal trough.

After Wednesday, our concern then shifts to the potential for thunderstorms around Modoc County. Thunderstorm probabilities remain low around 10 to 15 percent. Potential instability is also on the low side and models are only showing 100-200 j/kg of CAPE. Analyzing the 500 mb chart is also a bit of a mess. It looks like there is a very large closed low or multiple closed lows off the California coastline on Wednesday night into Thursday. Also, a strong short wave should be moving through northern California around Thursday. The shortwave should provide enough forcing to get things going if the moisture is present. Given the lack of moisture and low thunderstorm probabilities, we'll say storms should be rather isolated if they even form at all.

A deeper long wave trough will move through the area on Sunday, yet temperatures will remain warmer and a few degrees above normal. The days to watch in the extended forecast will be next week Tuesday and Wednesday as we have a 100% chance to exceed 90 degrees and a 50% chance to exceed 100 degrees in the Rogue Valley.

-Smith

AVIATION. For the 13/18Z TAF Cycle . VFR conditions will prevail into this evening with gusty, breezy afternoon and evening winds, strongest near the coast. Brief periods of LIFR are possible along and near shore from Cape Blanco northward late this evening into Tuesday morning as the marine layer wobbles near the shore.

-Schaaf

MARINE. Updated 215 PM PDT Monday, 13 July 2020 . A thermal trough will strengthen into Wednesday. Gales and very steep hazardous seas south of Cape Sebastian beyond 5 nm from shore this morning. Conditions will deteriorate tonight through Wednesday, and have expanded the gale warning to areas beyond 3 nm from Cape Blanco southward. Although the strongest winds will be south of Port Orford, steep to very steep wind-driven seas are expected as far north as Cape Blanco. For simplicity sake, have expanded the Gale Warning for areas south of Cape Blanco beyond 3 NM from shore. Elsewhere, Small craft advisory conditions will continue through Wednesday.

The thermal trough is expected to move inland Thursday with a slight and brief improvement in conditions. Seas and northerly winds are likely to gradually increase late in the week as high pressure centered far offshore builds.

-Schaaf

FIRE WEATHER. Updated 130 PM PDT Monday, 13 July 2020 . A warming trend is expected through mid week with hot and dry weather developing across inland areas. High pressure will strengthen over the Eastern Pacific Ocean and nudge into the area. At the surface a thermal trough will strengthen along the coast. This pattern will bring northerly winds to inland areas with offshore northeast winds along the coastal areas and into western Siskiyou. Temperatures are expected to peak on Wednesday with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal for inland locations.

The area will see a drying trend, especially with recoveries. Nighttime and morning northeasterly winds over the ridges/upper slopes from the Cascades west will trend stronger through Wednesday morning, winds strongest winds over the Kalmiopsis and western Siskiyou County. Gusts of 20 to 35 mph are expected over these ridges, especially in the overnight/morning hours. With the drying from offshore/northeast winds, expect overnight/morning recoveries to dip into the moderate to locally poor category, especially for ridges in Western Siskiyou County and the Coast Range.

Also of note for this week's weather, north to south oriented valleys located west of the Cascades, like the Illinois and Umpqua, will feature gusty afternoon/evening north winds as the thermal trough strengthens.

Heading into Thursday, a weak low to the south may result in some mid level moisture and instability developing into Modoc County with a slight chance for thunderstorms. Note, the best chance for storms is expected south of the area. Temperatures will remain hot on Thursday across the area, then trend a couple degrees cooler Friday into Saturday as an upper trough moves inland to the north, weakening the high pressure ridge and thermal trough pattern over the area. However, Sunday and early next week, the upper ridge may restrengthen with a surface thermal trough becoming positioned inland. This may bring increasingly hot and dry conditions to inland areas.

-CC

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 0 mi68 min 56°F
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 13 mi48 min NNW 31 G 41 47°F10 ft1012.5 hPa
46244 - Humboldt Bay, North Spit, CA 60 mi42 min 54°F9 ft

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA4 mi42 minN 15 G 245.00 miFair with Haze59°F50°F72%1013.2 hPa
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR23 mi42 minNW 14 G 1910.00 miFair75°F55°F50%1011.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCEC

Wind History from CEC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9N10
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1 day agoNW65NW9N3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSW4SW4SW5NW5NW9NW10NW10N13
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2 days agoN6NW7NW7NW6CalmS4S5S6S7S5S4S4SE4CalmW44NW56NW7NW8NW7NW7NW7NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:55 AM PDT     2.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:11 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:54 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:30 AM PDT     4.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:13 PM PDT     2.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:21 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:00 PM PDT     6.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:50 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.22.42.93.544.34.343.52.82.32.12.22.63.44.45.25.86.15.95.24.33.3

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:59 AM PDT     2.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:12 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:53 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:31 AM PDT     4.35 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:17 PM PDT     2.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:21 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:01 PM PDT     6.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:51 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.22.42.83.444.34.343.52.92.32.12.12.63.44.35.25.86.15.95.24.43.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.