Justice, IL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Justice, IL

April 16, 2024 2:47 PM CDT (19:47 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 7:34 PM
Moonrise 12:27 PM   Moonset 3:12 AM 
  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Top   Marine   7-Day   NWS   Buoy   Airport   Tide   Map   GEOS   Radar  


Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      Help
LMZ742 Expires:202404162130;;844082 Fzus53 Klot 161453 Nshlot
nearshore marine forecast national weather service chicago/romeoville il 953 am cdt Tue apr 16 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz740>742-162130- winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il- wilmette harbor to northerly island il- northerly island to calumet harbor il- 953 am cdt Tue apr 16 2024

.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening - .

Rest of today - East winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms late in the morning, then scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.

Tonight - Southeast winds to 30 kt with occasional gale gusts to 35 kt diminishing to 20 to 25 kt. Showers and scattered Thunderstorms. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft subsiding to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft late.

Wednesday - South winds to 30 kt becoming southwest and increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Occasional gale force gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.

Wednesday night - West winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ700
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Justice, IL
   Hourly   EDIT   Help   Map
NEW! Add second zone forecast


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
      (hide/show)   Help   
NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KLOT 161751 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1251 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorm threat late this afternoon and evening, greatest threat area west of I-39.

- Windy this afternoon, and again Wednesday with peak gusts 40+ mph.

- Next round of rain/showers on Thursday-Thursday evening

- Much cooler over the weekend with frost/freeze concerns, particularly on Saturday night

UPDATE
Issued at 933 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Now moving into the latter part of the morning, the occluding surface low responsible for today's severe potential is centered over east- central Nebraska. The storm's warm front is pushing northward through central IL and will progress across the CWA into the afternoon. While nothing is currently on the scope, there is a slight chance that some isolated elevated storms develop ahead of the front through early afternoon, especially as the low level density gradient tightens up as the boundary continues northward. A reservoir of around 1,000 J/Kg of MUCAPE exists near and behind the front. If anything does manage to go up ahead of the front, it will likely stay sub-severe but could support some small hail given the elevated instability in place.

Meanwhile, a line of severe storms currently extends from far eastern KS northward into southwestern IA. This line actually resides in the storm's open warm sector and is being driven by a low level jet/vort stream. This looks to be our key feature to watch for severe storms this evening. Efficient warm, moist upglide ahead of the feature is supporting a curtain of elevated showers and non- severe thunderstorms occupying central Iowa. This wave of showers and storms will approach the I-39 corridor around mid-afternoon with the main line trailing a couple to a few hours behind.

From here, the thinking in the forecast hasn't changed much. We're still looking at late afternoon through the evening for the main severe window. Severe hail remains the primary concern with any elevated convection. It's still uncertain how early storms will be allowed to go surface-based which will introduce this evening's tornado threat and drive up the severe wind potential. Storm's along that aforementioned line will almost certainly be surface-based, but the uncertainty lies in the antecedent activity. Most forecast soundings suggest that the cap will either break this afternoon ahead of this linear feature or will be so weak that ambient forcing is likely to overcome it. The biggest concern for severe weather, including for tornadoes in particular, remains in our west out near the I-39 corridor before the convection outruns the higher instability and better forcing aloft. Nonetheless, the all-hazards severe potential will be very much present across the CWA this evening.

Doom

DISCUSSION
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Through Wednesday:

A well pronounced warm conveyor belt downstream of deepening low pressure over western NE this morning will continue to foster the development and eastward movement of an arc of strong convection across NE into KS early this morning. Thereafter, subsequent east-northeastward movement into the Corn Belt is expected through the day as the conveyor belt shifts eastward in advance of the occluding surface low shifting towards the Mid-Missouri Valley. It is this activity that will be our main potential severe weather maker later this afternoon (after 4 pm) into the evening.

All eyes will certainly be on the evolution of this arc of convection to our west through the day. However, prior to it's arrival, it remains plausible that some widely scattered elevated storms may develop later this morning across parts of northern IL to the north of the northward shifting warm front. This activity is expected to be largely non-severe, though steepening mid- level lapse rates could support an instance or two of hail with any stronger and longer lived updrafts. Otherwise, east- southeasterly surface winds will be ramping-up through the day in response to strong pressure falls in advance of the occluding surface low over the Mid-Missouri Valley. This will thus result in a rather windy afternoon across the area, with the strongest wind gusts (perhaps at times up to 45 mph) likely to the south of the surface warm front (areas generally along and south of I-80). These strong gusty winds will preceded the late day severe convection.

The primary timeline for our severe storm potential will be after 4 PM west of the Fox Valley and Upper Illinois basin, then likely after 7 PM into eastern IL and northwestern IN. However, the severe weather threat may tend to wane with eastward extent across IL through the evening due to the potential for this initial line of storms to begin to outrun the better instability.
Nevertheless, strong low-level and deep-layer shear will be concerning for the potential for organized storms, which will be capable of producing strong winds and some tornadoes.

Perhaps the most concerning area for significant severe weather later today, including significant hail and tornadoes, appears to be west of the I-39 corridor, particularly across IA, northeastern MO and far northwest IL. Redeveloping late day storms are plausible in this area in the wake of the first line of storms. Assuming this second area of storms does fire over IA, shear profiles there will support supercells with an attendant very large hail and significant tornado risk. Fortunately, it appears this second area of convection will begin to diurnally weaken as it approaches the western parts of the NWS LOT forecast this evening on the heals of the 41initial arc of storms.
However, we will have to keep a close eye on the eastward extent of these storms prior to weakening.

We will remain in the storm's warm sector tonight, though a lack of forcing and a revitalized capping inversion does look to put us in a general convective lull for a period overnight. While this is the case, there still is a chance for another round of strong to severe storms late tonight (after 4 am) through Wednesday morning. This in response to the approach of the surface cold front, which will move across the area Wednesday morning. At this time, the threat for these severe early morning storms remains largely conditional. The greatest chance of these storms into Wednesday morning is looking to largely be east of I-55.

In the wake of the cold front, expect a windy afternoon on Wednesday with westerly winds gusting 40-45 mph.

KJB

Wednesday Night through Monday:

The blustery west wind regime in cold air advection (CAA) in the wake of Wednesday afternoon's cold front passage will persist during the early evening hours. Expect gusts up to 35 mph during this time. Winds will then quickly ease the rest of the night as a weak surface high pressure shifts overhead. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s, still above normal for mid April, but much cooler than tonight.

Quiet, precipitation free conditions will be short-lived as our next rain producing system arrives Thursday morning. An unseasonably deep/cold upper low over south central Canada will tighten the baroclinic zone/thermal gradient across the region.
Modest large scale forcing but fairly robust progged low-mid level frontogenetical circulation will likely bring an area of rain/showers shifting eastward across the area through the afternoon, evening, and early overnight period. Chance for any embedded thunderstorms appears minimal and confined to south of the Kankakee River. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 50s to 60s inland, and cooler near the lake.

Initial surge of dry and cold advection on Friday will result in a partly cloudy, breezy and dry, seasonably cool day with highs in the mid to upper 50s. There has been appreciable run to run variance regarding the magnitude of the colder air mass aloft arriving this weekend. In the most recent model cycle (00z 4/16), the pendulum swung back to colder, particularly in the foreign (ECMWF and CMC) suites, which indicate 850 mb temps plunging to near -10C Saturday morning.

If the colder solutions pan out, breezy CAA driven lows may flirt with the freezing mark across parts of interior northern Illinois Saturday morning, with mid 30s to around 40F elsewhere.
Saturday's highs are currently forecast to reach the lower to mid 50s, but the colder side of the spectrum points toward downside potential being 40s for many locales. High pressure building overhead amidst forecast sub-freezing dew points Saturday night looks synoptically favorable for elevated frost/freeze concerns outside of Chicago if skies clear out enough. Following Sunday's chilly start, afternoon temps should recover some vs. Saturday but still likely below normal. Near normal temps (lower to perhaps mid 60s highs) will then return to start next work week, with the next precip. chances probably holding off until just beyond the current day 7 (Monday).

Castro

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Key Aviation Impacts for the current TAF period:

- Showers and thunderstorms expected at area terminals this evening, some of which may become severe

- Gusty southeasterly winds expected through most of the TAF period

- MVFR cigs expected overnight

- Another round of storms possible Wednesday morning, but confidence remains lower in development and may focus east of the terminals

Thunderstorms have already developed over Missouri and Iowa ahead of the next low pressure system moving north and east impacting the airspace west of terminals. As the low moves east through the afternoon, the threat of storms to move over terminals increases. Winds ahead of the storms will be out of the southeast with gusts around 30 knots. Thunderstorms could impact area terminals as early as 22Z, but latest guidance as the strongest band of storms moving in around and after 00Z.
These storms will have strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. There is also the potential for these storms to become severe with the development of one inch hail and/or a brief tornado near the terminals; though the potential for tornadoes is better to west (closer to KRFD). While models have trended earlier with initial arrival, confidence for the strongest cells maintained the TEMPO from 00Z-04Z.

There is the potential for a dry slot to develop overnight giving a brief respite from rain, but most guidance was keeping some scattered activity through 15Z tomorrow, so kept -SHRA through Wednesday morning. However, as the center of the low moves into Wisconsin, there is a better chance for MVFR cigs to remain through the overnight period. Then as daybreak approaches, there will be enough instability present for the potential for another round of thunderstorms to develop around area terminals Wednesday morning, and only adjustments to timing were made to the previously introduced PROB30 group.

Showers will eventually taper off and move east on Wednesday morning as winds slowly rotate to the southwest. Gusts are expected to remain strong up to 30 knots Wednesday morning.
Lower confidence on the exact timing, but VFR cigs are expected to return Wednesday morning. Winds gusts will slowly diminish by late afternoon and become more westerly.

DK

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT Wednesday for the IL nearshore waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT Wednesday for the IN nearshore waters.




Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (hide/show)   Help
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
CNII2 14 mi33 min NE 1.9G8 57°F 45°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 16 mi48 min ESE 11G14 76°F 29.8356°F
OKSI2 16 mi108 min ESE 8.9G12 62°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 18 mi28 min ESE 22G23 60°F 49°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 37 mi68 min SSE 7G11 78°F 29.90
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 42 mi108 min NNE 6
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 49 mi28 min ESE 14G18 78°F 29.8251°F


Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (hide/show)   Help
toggle option: (graph/table)



Airport Reports
    EDIT      (hide/show)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KMDW CHICAGO MIDWAY INTL,IL 6 sm54 minSSE 15G2310 smOvercast79°F55°F45%29.85
KORD CHICAGO O'HARE INTL,IL 16 sm56 minESE 1310 smMostly Cloudy75°F52°F44%29.84
KLOT LEWIS UNIVERSITY,IL 17 sm62 minSE 15G2310 smMostly Cloudy75°F59°F57%29.84
KIGQ LANSING MUNI,IL 22 sm12 minSSE 15G2310 smPartly Cloudy77°F61°F57%29.84
KDPA DUPAGE,IL 24 sm55 minSE 15G2410 smOvercast73°F55°F53%29.82
KGYY GARY/CHICAGO INTL,IN 24 sm62 minSE 14G2410 smA Few Clouds77°F57°F50%29.87
KJOT JOLIET RGNL,IL 24 sm12 minSSE 16G2510 smPartly Cloudy81°F63°F54%29.77
Link to 5 minute data for KMDW


Wind History from MDW
(wind in knots)
toggle option: (graph/table)



Tide / Current for
   EDIT      (hide/show)   Help


Weather Map
       (hide/show)   Help


GEOS Local Image of great lakes   
EDIT



Chicago, IL,



NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE