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ANZ331 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny To The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 808 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely in the evening, then chance of showers with isolated tstms after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely with isolated tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 808 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. The region will be in between high pressure in the northern atlantic and tropical storm ophelia well to the south and west today. Ophelia is forecasted by the national hurricane center to transition from tropical storm to a post-tropical depression tonight into Sunday morning as it moves northward within the mid-atlantic. Meanwhile, an associated warm front will approach the region tonight and stall south of long island this weekend. The area of low pressure will continue to approach to close this weekend before passing south of long island early next week. This will be followed by high pressure building in from southeast canada mid into late next week.
for the latest forecasts on tropical storm ophelia, refer to the national hurricane center at www.nhc.noaa.gov and/or the nws new york office's tropical page at weather.gov/okx/tropical

FXUS61 KBOX 231337 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 937 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SYNOPSIS
A pattern change this weekend, with periods of rain, gusty northeast winds and cooler than normal temperatures, as moisture from Ophelia streams northward into southern New England. Rain exits sometime Monday morning, followed by a drying trend the rest of next week, as large sprawling high pressure builds from Quebec into New England.
This high will initially be accompanied by an October-like airmass, with highs only 60-65 and lows in the 40s early next week. This airmass slowly modifies with highs rebounding to near 70 late next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

10 AM Update...

Rain continues to struggle to reach the ground across the southern portions of the region despite strong returns on radar. Given radar trends and considerable amount of dry air in the mid levels decided to back QPF off a bit this afternoon.
Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

7 AM update...

Tough forecast today, with lots of dry air over SNE in response to confluent flow and subsidence across Maine. This area of mid level confluent flow doesn't move much today, hence, dry air will be tough to erode. As rain shield advances north it will become fragment as dry air erodes precip. Therefore, we followed the drier/more suppressed solutions for today's forecast. This translates to steady rains across CT/RI and southeast MA this afternoon, south of the Mass Pike, with heaviest rains over southeast MA, Cape Cod and the Islands. North of the Mass Pike, very light rain this afternoon. In fact, along the NH/MA, MA/VT border, there may not be much rain at all today. Again, challenging forecast. Otherwise, previous forecasts and discussion below have a good handle on current conditions.
Hence, no major changes with this update. Earlier discussion below.

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Surge of higher PWATs overspreading the region from the south will bring rain northward into SNE today. Biggest forecast challenge is determining northward extent of rainfall as well as rainfall amounts. Confluent flow to the north will maintain high pres and area of low-mid level dry air which extends south into SNE to start the day. This will initially erode northern extent of rainfall as it lifts northward and result in a tight QPF gradient across SNE.
Deepest moisture and best forcing assocd with easterly low level jet lifting north into the region will be focused along the south coast and especially the Islands where heaviest rainfall will occur, especially during the afternoon. Rainfall coverage and amounts more uncertain further N across SNE. Rain overspreads RI, SE MA and portions of northern CT this morning, and northern extent of rain should reach the Mass Pike in the afternoon. However, given that the column never truly saturates in northern MA, think it will be a struggle to get rain much further N than Route 2 corridor for much of the day with just some spotty light rain possible here later in the day. PoPs today will range from 100 percent near the south coast to 20-30 percent in far northern MA.

A period of heavy rain is likely this afternoon, especially Cape/Islands possibly extending north to the south coast as low level jet enhances isentropic lift/fgen. Also, low risk for isolated thunder over the Islands with some elevated instability developing over the ocean. Rainfall amounts through today up to an inch possible near the south coast and 1-2 inches over the Islands, decreasing to less than 0.10" far northern MA.

Highs will range from the upper 50s higher terrain to 60-65 elsewhere. Becoming windy this afternoon over the Islands and immediate south coast with NE gusts 25-35 mph as a modest low level jet lifts into the region.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
Tonight...

Intensity of rainfall over the Cape/Islands should diminish this evening as the low level jet weakens, but periods of rain or drizzle are expected tonight as deep moisture plume remains across the region while lifting north. Gusty south coastal winds will diminish overnight with lows mostly in the 50s.

Sunday...

Remnants of Ophelia will be lifting north along the mid Atlc coast which will bring another round of rain/showers into SNE. Still some uncertainty with timing and rainfall coverage/amounts with this second round of rainfall given the variance in the model guidance.
But potential for at least light to moderate rainfall, especially in the afternoon in CT/RI as moisture moves in from the SW. Highs will be in the 60s with NE winds 10-20 mph.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Highlights:

* Rain Sunday night spills into early Monday, but then exits yielding a dry finish to the day Monday

* Cool, October-like airmass arrives Mon night into Tue and is accompanied by gusty NE winds, especially across southeast MA

* Large sprawling 1035 mb high pressure builds from Quebec southward into New England next week, yielding dry but cool weather. Core of cool air is Mon ngt/Tue, then slowly rebounding mid to late week.

Details:

Sunday night and Monday:

Remnant low from Ophelia and its tropical moisture plume will stream across SNE Sunday night, yielding a steady light to moderate rain, possibly heavy at times. Most of the guidance, including EC and CMC ensembles and deterministic output, including UKMET suggest deepest moisture and best forcing for ascent is across CT-RI and possibly up to the Mass Pike. GFS and its ensembles offer a more suppressed solution with rain chances confined to the south coast. We will follow model consensus/non-GFS solution here and go with the wetter outcome for CT-RI and along/south of the Mass Pike. With confluent flow just to the north of SNE, there should be a sharp cutoff in qpf from south to north. This is something we will have to watch and is what the GFS and its ensembles have latched onto. Upstream mid level trough kicks remnant Ophelia low seaward later Monday. Thus, Monday begins wet but probably ends dry from N to S. Cool, breezy and raw with onshore NE winds. Highs only in the mid to upper 60s, but will feel cooler given the gusty northeast winds, especially across southeast MA.

Tuesday through Friday:

This portion of the forecast period will be dominated by a positive height anomaly drifting across Ontario and eventually into Quebec.
At the surface, this feature is accompanied by 1030+ mb anticyclone that advects southward from Quebec into southern New England. This initially will be accompanied by a chilly airmass, with core of cool air (+8C) at 925 mb Mon night into Tue. This will limit highs Tuesday to 60-65, followed by Tue night mins in the 40s. Given the gusty NE winds, definitely feeling more like October than Sep. This deep layer ridge will also provide dry weather much of next week.
The airmass slowly modifies with highs rebounding to around 70 by Thu/Fri.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

11z TAF Update: no changes. Rain shield will struggle to move northward and will become fragmented as dry air erodes leading edge of precip.

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Through 12z...

Patchy MVFR cigs from south coast to SE MA, otherwise VFR.

Today...Moderate confidence.

MVFR cigs expanding northward to near the Mass Pike in the afternoon, with IFR developing across RI/SE MA. Mainly VFR cigs interior northern and western MA. Rain lifts north from the south coast in the morning, reaching Mass Pike region in the afternoon, but uncertain how far north into northern MA rain gets. Locally heavy rainfall possible Cape/Islands this afternoon. NE gusts to 25 kt developing along the south coast in the afternoon, up to 30 kt over the Islands.

Tonight...Moderate confidence

MVFR/IFR conditions with areas of rain and drizzle. NE gusts 20-25 kt south coast and 25-30 kt over the Islands in the evening, then diminishing overnight.

Sunday...Moderate confidence.

Mainly MVFR conditions with areas of IFR. Another round of rain/showers likely overspreading the region from SW.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in trends, moderate on timing.
Should remain VFR through the morning, then lowering to MVFR in the afternoon as rain overspreads the region. Uncertainty on northern extent of IFR cigs but kept these lower cigs to the south.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in trends, moderate on timing. VFR in the morning lowering to MVFR in the afternoon as rain overspreads the region.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Monday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Gale warnings will remain in place for much of the south coastal waters for a period of marginal gale force NE winds with gusts 30-35 kt this afternoon and evening. Best chance of gales will be across RI coastal waters to waters south of Nantucket. Winds gradually diminish tonight into Sunday. Rough seas peaking late afternoon and evening, up to 10-12 ft southern waters, then slowly subsiding through Sunday. Heavy rain and isolated thunder over south coastal waters today with reduced vsbys. Period of rain/showers and patchy fog continue tonight into Sunday.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 7 ft.

Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020- 022>024.
RI...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ231-236.
Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ232>235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ251.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ254.
Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ255-256.

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Hartford
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Sat -- 05:27 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:35 AM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:22 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:53 PM EDT     2.25 feet High Tide
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Hartford, Connecticut, Tide feet

Rocky Hill
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Sat -- 04:19 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:49 AM EDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:14 PM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:07 PM EDT     2.37 feet High Tide
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Rocky Hill, Connecticut, Tide feet

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