Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hyde Park, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Fair and dry conditions with seasonably warm temps and low humidity levels persist through the weekend.

2) Increasing confidence for periods of rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms late Mon thru the mid week across eastern NY and western New England.

DISCUSSION
As of 245 AM EDT...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will be near eastern NY and western New England to start the day and then will shift eastward to the Gulf of Maine by late this afternoon and this evening. Some patchy radiative mist/fog in the major and sheltered valleys will burn off quickly after sunrise today with a cool start with lows in the 40s to 50s. Expect max temps to be near normal today with still shallow mixing heights. We went close to a MAV/NBM blend with highs 80-85F in the valleys and 70s over the hills and mtns with a few upper 60s over the high peaks. Mostly clear skies and light to calm winds will support radiative cooling once again, and we went below the NBM mins for Sunday morning with lows in the 50s with some upper 40s over the higher terrain. Patchy radiational mist/fog will be possible once again for the Glens Falls/Lake George Region, portions of the Upper and mid Hudson Valley and east of the southern Greens towards the CT River Valley. The 2nd half of the weekend will feature a slight moderation and warming trend in temps, as a weak sfc anticylone remains in control from near Nova Scotia southwest to the Ohio Valley, though weak mid and upper level ridging sets up aloft.
An isolated pop-up shower or t-storm is possible near the west/south Dacks. Otherwise, dewpoints will be mainly in the 50s in the valleys which will be quite comfortable. Highs temps will be near normal in the lower to mid 80s in the valleys/hills and 70s to around 80F over the higher terrain which is climatologically normal for late July (i.e. normal high for Albany is 84F currently). Unsettled weather looks to return to start the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A mid and upper level trough sets up over the Northeast on Monday. Some mid and high clouds increase, as a short-wave moves towards and across the region in the northwest flow aloft. The instability looks modest with weak shear on Monday based on some of the medium range and ensemble guidance. The showers and widely scattered t-storms may be most numerous over the the higher terrain and from the Capital District north and east. Max temps continue to look seasonable with a slight uptick in humidity levels with dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Monday night into the midweek, the forecast becomes increasingly more unsettled with the mid and upper level trough over NY and New England. The guidance varies where a more potent short-wave moves through the trough and impacts the region by Tue-Tue night. A more recent trend with the majority of the medium range guidance and ensembles is for a wave to develop to the south of the forecast area and it brings periods of showers/rain and few thunderstorms Tue-Tue night with residual showers with the sfc wave and upper low thru Wed. However, the ECMWF and some of the ensembles have a 990-995 hPa low over west-central NY by Tue pm closing off with periods of showers and thunderstorms. Some could be on the stronger side if enough instability sets up, but the shear is not too impressive. PWATS do surge to about 1.50" with good moisture advection on Tue, and the latest NAEFS continues to show low and mid level height fall 2-3 STDEVs below normal. NBM 24-hr probabilities >1" of rainfall are 45-60% across all of eastern NY and western New England by 12Z/Wed with some additional rainfall thereafter. PWAT anomalies form the latest NAEFS are 1-2 STDEVs above normal. WPC guidance supports about 1-2.5" of rainfall for Tue thru Wed and the Excessive Rainfall Outlook has the entire area in a 'Marginal Risk' for Tue-Tue night & Wed-Wed night. Antecedent soil conditions are dry (not much rainfall the past 5-days) leading into the event with high gridded FFG values. However, any training cells or bands could lead to ponding of water on roads, urban and poor drainage nuisance flooding or an isolated instance of a flash flood. This event could be a widespread, beneficial soaking rainfall too. We will continue to monitor potential impacts over the next few days.

Temps trend cooler than normal Tue-Thu with the mid and upper closed/cut-off low and associated clouds and rain-cooler air.
The showers begin to decrease and become isolated to scattered by Thu...with fair weather and more seasonable temps to close the week.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 12Z Sunday...High pressure slowly shifts east of New England today into tonight. Expect a few diurnally driven cumulus and a few-sct cirrus today with VFR conditions at all the TAF sites from the late morning through the afternoon. Some patchy radiational mist/fog may impact KGFL/KPSF 06Z-12Z/Sun with IFR or briefly localized LIFR conditions. We placed some mist in these sites. The winds will become southeast/south at 4-8 KT in the late morning thru the afternoon. Expect the winds to become light to calm shortly before or just after 00Z/Sun.

Outlook...

Sat Night to Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday-Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy.
Definite SHRA...Chance of TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
Chance of TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.