Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hyde Park, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Low pressure along a passing cold front will bring a period of rain and snow for all of eastern New York and western New England for late Wednesday through early Thursday. The combination of a light accumulation of snow and falling temperatures will result in some slippery conditions for early Thursday.

2) Colder weather will be in place across the region for Thursday through the weekend with below normal temperatures.
Wind chill values will be below zero at times, especially for the high terrain.

3) Although the pattern will be unsettled with period of snow showers this weekend, the chance for a larger storm system appears low at this time.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A strong cold front will be making its way eastward across the region for late Wednesday through early Thursday. The front will be slowed down by a wave of low pressure moving up the boundary.
Model guidance has been showing the wave of low pressure developing later and further west than previous runs have been showing. As a result, this will overall limit the total amount of accumulating snowfall that occurs across the region, although some is still expected.

On Wednesday, a southerly flow ahead of the front will allow much of the region to reach into the 40s, especially the Hudson Valley and Capital Region, where highs will reach the mid 40s.
As the front gets closer, a period of steady light rain will develop over the area by the afternoon and evening hours. The front will be slowing marching eastward from western New York, and should be crossing western parts of the area by the late evening hours, shortly after midnight for the Hudson Valley and the late night hours from western New England. Once the front crosses, winds will switch to the west and colder air will rush in at low levels. As colder air arrives, some lingering light precip will be changing over to snow. Models suggests there won't be a lot of additional precip on the backside of the front, but the passing low should help prolong a little bit.
Upslope favored areas and northwestern areas that will be aided by lake enhancement may see a little extra, but most places will be done with precip by sunrise Thursday (perhaps as late as the mid morning hours for those high terrain/northwestern areas).
Overall, there will be a coating to an inch or two for most areas, although the highest terrain and western Adirondacks could locally see 3 to 5 inches in total. While this look to be mainly sub-advisory amounts, the light coating of snow, in addition to temperatures falling below freezing, may make for some slick surfaces for first thing on Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Temperatures will be noticeably colder behind the front for Thursday through the weekend. Temperatures will quickly fall into the 20s behind the front on Thursday morning and they will probably hold steady or slowly fall through the rest of the day.
Westerly winds will start to become breezy through the day as well, making it feel even colder. Most areas will see lows in the single digits to low teens on Thursday night and some temps will be near or slightly below zero over the Adirondacks. With the breezy conditions still in place, wind chill values will below zero at times on Thursday night, with values as low as -15 F over the Adirondacks. WHile it looks to stay above-advisory levels at this time, it will be close.

Highs will remain below normal and cold on Friday with temperatures mainly in the 20s. Some moderation is possible on Saturday, but another cold shot will follow for Sunday into Monday with continued below normal highs. Overnight lows will remain chilly with single digits and teens for most of the time as well. Overall, the wind won't be as big as a factor for Friday into the weekend, with gusts mainly staying under 20 mph most of the time.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

While it will be cold this weekend into early next week, precip looks limited across the region. There will be some occasional snow showers and flurries, especially for western, northern and high terrain areas, as upslope flow and lake effect may bring some light activity from time to time. However, models and ensembles aren't suggesting any organized storms systems through early next week. Despite earlier model runs showing a coastal storm, the current setup would keep any developing storms too far east to have an impact on our weather, keeping us within the cold and blustery northwest flow. While northwestern areas may be see some light accumulation from lake effect and perhaps upslope areas of the southern Greens too, the probability of the rest of the area seeing over an inch of accumulation is mainly under 25% at this time according to the latest NBM.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A weak clipper system will move through the region this evening, bringing with it a change for -RASN shwrs to GFL. Further south, decided to remove VCSH mention at ALB and PSF due to main energy associated with the system remaining well north and dry surface conditions as noted on recent observations. Main concern heading into the early fcst period will be LLWS conditions as sfc winds remain from the southeast, while a southwesterly low-level jet of near 45 kts overspreads the area.
Inherited LLWS at all sites except GFL, however latest guidance suggests similar trends further north, and have also included LLWS mention at GFL with this fcst update. LLWS conditions should begin to subside after the 06z time frame, which will be followed by dry/VFR conditions through the overnight hours.

After daybreak, next cold front will approach the area, with shwr chances increasing through the afternoon hrs. For now, coverage at POU/ALB/PSF can start as early as the 15z time frame, with precip increasing in coverage through the afternoon hours at all locations to include GFL. As precip coverage expands, expect CIGS to lower into the low MVFR category. Winds through the day tomorrow will remain southerly at 7-10 kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact
Definite RA
SN.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SN.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.