Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Luna Pier, MI

AVIATION

Light intensity snow to spread across the terminal corridor within the 19 to 21Z window with an increase in snowfall intensity this evening into tonight. Greatest impact window to ceilings and visibility will be during the 23Z to 05Z window where snow rates will be the highest. Expect ceiling heights to fall mostly in the MVFR/IFR category with brief intervals of LIFR under the more intense bursts of snowfall. VSBYs fall below 2SM with potential for 1/2SM under the heavy bursts of snowfall. Predominately IFR ceilings look to prevail by 06Z tonight and through about 12Z tomorrow morning. Lighter snowfall expected to persist until around 15Z. Winds out of the S-SE to around 10-15 knots into tomorrow morning with a veering wind to the W-WNW mid morning Sunday into the afternoon with gusts picking up to 20-25 knots.

For DTW... More impactful snow expected this evening bringing conditions MVFR to IFR in the 23Z to 05Z window. Potential exists for LIFR conditions and visibilities AOB 1/2 SM during the peak of the event, most likely between 01Z and 04Z this evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 ft by around 20Z and through tonight.

* Medium for visibility at or below 1/2 SM late this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1027 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

UPDATE...

No changes to the forecast or headlines are planned here at the late morning update time. 29.12z KDTX raob captured very dry air in the lowest 10.0 kft agl that will require time to saturate. Snowflakes have begun to reach the ground at Kalamazoo and Ionia so a precipitation onset time between 18-21z seems on track. Consensus of 29.12z numerical weather prediction continues to support 0.5 to 0.6 inch total liquid equivalent for much of Southeast Michigan.
Uncertainty does exist with regards to what the liquid to snow ratios will be observed at, but a general 5 to 8 inch snowfall forecast highlighted in the Winter Weather Message continues to be reasonable.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 422 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

DISCUSSION...

A Pacific wave is emerging over the Rockies this morning, digging into the central Plains and producing widespread snow over the Midwest. This snow will spread into the local area this afternoon through tonight as the wave contracts and lifts into the Great Lakes. Elevated isentropic ascent is already underway this morning, evidenced by the high cloud moving in on IR imagery. This marks the beginning of a top-down saturation process that should bring the first flakes around or shortly after noon, with increasing rates late afternoon into the evening. Temps will briefly rise toward 32F this afternoon but will stay below freezing once steady snow begins, so melting is not anticipated at the onset.

A number of factors contribute to synoptic and mesoscale ascent with this system, offering high confidence in impactful snowfall and periods of heavy rates this evening. A corridor of PVA targets Lower MI late this afternoon and evening, while the coupled upper jet induces a broad area of upper divergence supportive of synoptic lift. System relative analysis indicates deep layer moist isentropic ascent in the lower to mid levels. The forcing is shown to collapse into mesoscale processes this evening as sharp frontal forcing accompanies the inbound mid-level wave. This is noted in highly unbalanced flow emerging along the 280-310 K surfaces and reflected in a sharp fgen response that works in from the southwest between 23 and 03z. This marks the peak in the event with rates of 0.50 to 0.75"/hr, possibly approaching 1"/hr in spots, but this magnitude of forcing should be relatively transient at any given location. Hi-res models have been targeting areas south of I-94 with the greatest rates during this period, and HRRR snowband probability tracker offers added confidence in this with some signs that upstream banding may stay intact into the area.

SLRs are anticipated to be near or slightly below climo at 11 or 12:1 to start the event late this afternoon as the DGZ will be relatively high at 10 to 15 kft AGL with much of the omega focused below this level. Higher SLRs (~15:1) will accompany the evening burst as deeper lift intersects with the DGZ. Afterward into the overnight, rates will subside but the higher SLRs will persist across most of the area as the DGZ lowers slightly and supersaturation wrt ice increases. This should produce larger/fluffier flakes. The exception will be the far southeast areas from Monroe toward Mt. Clemens and Port Huron where the warm advective wing of the inbound low will bring rising temperatures to the lowest 10 kft which will increase riming, reduce SLRs, and cut into accumulations. A brief changeover to rain is noted in several solutions as sfc wet bulb temp creeps to near 33F between 09 and 12z. Otherwise, snowfall will continue through the early morning hours before ascent begins to wane mid to late morning Sunday.
Additional lake enhanced snow may clip the northern Thumb Sunday afternoon with up to an additional inch.

Overall, little change to the previous messaging with this system and no changes to the headlines in place. Widespread 5 to 8" snowfall totals are forecast across the area over a 15 to 18 hour period. Areas west of US-23 are the most likely areas to see 7 or 8" given longer duration of snowfall into Sunday morning and higher SLRs overnight. Did consider expanding the Winter Storm Warning into Monroe/Wayne/Oakland where the evening burst of snow brings potential to exceed 5" in 6 hours for isolated locations. However based on the latest data with the HRRR 6-hr LPMM QPF trending down from the previous run, this outcome carries low confidence and feel more comfortable with the advisory currently in place.

Gusty NW flow follows the system on Sunday with gusts of around 30 kt expected through the afternoon. High pressure arrives on Monday to provide calmer but colder conditions with morning lows in the teens and highs struggling to reach 30. The next wave in this active pattern is modeled to arrive late Monday into Tuesday, with the bulk of the forcing displaced well to our south and east. Light accumulating snow is still possible, particularly for Metro Detroit and areas south, where 1 to 2 inches is in the latest forecast. The next arctic front then brings another chance for lighter accumulating snow Wednesday night into Thursday.

MARINE...

Light winds to start the day as the region remains under the influence of departing high pressure. This changes by evening as the next low ejecting out of the Midwest begins to encroach on the Great Lakes. Winds organize out of the south-southeast with a steady strengthening through the late evening hours as the low center reaches lower MI. While this flow carries some warmer air north, magnitude is not enough to set up a truly stable overlake thermal profile allowing a portion of a 50kt low level jet to mix down to the surface over the southern Great Lakes and southern third of Lake Huron (roughly south of Port Austin). Gusts tonight for these waters likely top out around 30kts with a sporadic gust to gale force not completely out of the question particularly over St Clair/Erie. For the rest of the central Great Lakes, winds peak closer to the 20-25kt range. Low is forecast to track northeast directly over Lake Huron Sunday morning and eventually into the Georgian Bay/Ontario by Sunday afternoon. This allows a secondary arctic cold front to drop across the Great Lakes late Sunday afternoon-evening ushering in renewed cold air advection on NW flow. A sharp increase in northwest gusts accompany this frontal passage supporting solid potential (60-80%)
for a 4-6hr period of 35kt gusts over northern/central Lake Huron late day Sunday. A Gale Watch remains in effect for all open waters north of Harbor Beach as a result. Some occasional gales are possible over the open waters south of Harbor Beach however given the northwesterly wind direction, confidence in 3 consecutive hours of 34kt gusts is still too low at this time to include in the watch.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for MIZ047-048-053-060- 068-075-082.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for MIZ049-054-055- 061>063-069-070-076-083.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning from 2 PM to 10 PM EST Sunday for LHZ362-363-441- 462>464.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for LHZ421-442-443.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for LHZ422.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM EST Sunday for LHZ441.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Sunday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Sunday for LEZ444.

Low Water Advisory from 3 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for LEZ444.