Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Luna Pier, MI

AVIATION

Low pressure tracking along a stalled frontal boundary just south of the state line maintains a pool of low-level moisture across southern Lower MI this morning. Observations range from LIFR ceilings near the MI/OH border to IFR across Metro Detroit to VFR at FNT and north. Light showers will linger across the area through the morning as the low is slow to depart to the east. Conditions are forecast to gradually improve as ceilings lift with daytime heating, though MVFR may persist across the south closer to the front. A strong trough drops into the region this evening, with an arc of showers pivoting through after 21z. This system brings ceilings back into the MVFR range tonight with showers continuing into Monday morning.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected today.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet today.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 433 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

DISCUSSION...

Mid-level frontal zone remains active early this morning as the heaviest precipitation along the west to east axis has pushed east.
Deformation holds over southern Lower Michigan as the center of the surface low pressure translates across Indiana and into Ohio keeping potential for isolated to scattered showers through the mid morning hours.

A period of lower PoPs will exist late this morning and early afternoon as the surface low continues to drift slowly east along with the mid-level frontal zone. Should mainly see spotty showers during this period within the northeast lower level flow off Lake Huron. High coverage of low to mid clouds lingering over the region and the cool northeast flow will help hold daytime highs for most of southeast Michigan around the mid/upper 50s.

A strong mid-upper trough amplifies while dropping through the Great Lakes region throughout today. Strong PVA and height falls with a 120+ knot upper jet will provide greater larger scale lift that spreads across the forecast area later this afternoon and into tonight. The associated compact low will drive southeast out of northern Wisconsin and through southwest Michigan with an area of rainfall on the east side of the low. Arrival of this area of precipitation across western portions of the CWA will be between 21- 00Z. Then the axis of more organized deformation forcing and greater precipitation will then pivot around the I-69 corridor becoming more west to east oriented. This puts the Saginaw Valley in the favored location for rainfall totals possibly up to an inch with the bulk this falling during the evening and overnight hours. The remainder of forecast area will see average totals in the quarter to half inch range. Cannot completely rule out some embedded thunder that will be supported by cold temperatures aloft, but will leave mention out for now as best chance will reside to our west.

Widespread precipitation chances decrease into Monday morning with the weakening deformation with cold cyclonic flow settling across the central Great Lakes into mid-week period. Northerly low level winds will usher in temperatures at 850 mb that drop into the -1C and -4C range by Monday afternoon cooling daytime highs down into the lower 50s. Temperatures at 850mb cool off another degree or so for Tuesday bringing the coolest day of the week with some daytime highs in the upper 40s. Unsettled weather conditions likely to remain through the early week within the northerly flow as several bouts shortwave energy pass through the mean trough over the region.
Depending on the exact trajectory of winds across Lake Huron, the Thumb will hold the higher PoPs Monday and Tuesday. Another note for the extended forecast will be low temperatures in the frost/freeze territory Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday morning. Thursday currently looks to be the coldest morning of the week with clearing skies in the forecast allowing optimal radiational cooling.
Temperatures begin to moderate late week as southwesterly flow deepens across the region.

MARINE...

An active period of marine weather is underway this morning as widespread rain persists across the southern Great Lakes. This rain band is in association with a low pressure system that will continue to drift across the Ohio Valley throughout the day. A break in precipitation chances occurs around mid-day while a second low pressure system organizes to our northwest, which will usher in another round of steady rain and increasing northeast flow. The uptick in sustained onshore winds to 20-25 knots will create a prolonged period of elevated wave heights, at times reaching 8 to 10 feet along the nearshore zones, that continues through mid-week.
These two surface lows will be anchored to a broad upper low that wraps cooler Canadian air into the Great Lakes to promote increased mixing depths and thus waterspout potential and gusty winds. Drier and calmer weather does not arrive until late this week, as the upper low will linger overhead.

HYDROLOGY...

An area of widespread showers will spread across Lower Michigan this afternoon and pivot across southeast Michigan into tonight focusing rainfall totals of a half inch to an inch across along the I-69 corridor and Saginaw Valley. The higher totals up towards an inch through tonight will be focused more towards the Saginaw Valley given the trajectory of the low and pivot point of best forcing and moisture. The rest of southeast Michigan will see totals in the quarter to half inch range. Significant flooding is not likely but there is the potential for minor flooding in urban areas of the Tri- Cites along with minor rises to local rivers.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ421-441.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Monday for LHZ422.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ442-443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.