Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Buffalo, MI
July 3, 2024 12:41 AM CDT (05:41 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:16 AM Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 2:44 AM Moonset 6:54 PM |
LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 955 Pm Edt Tue Jul 2 2024
Overnight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west less than 10 knots. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night - Light and variable winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday - Light and variable winds becoming west 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 50 degrees and at michigan city is 66 degrees.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 50 degrees and at michigan city is 66 degrees.
LMZ005
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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 030523 AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 123 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A Marginal Risk of severe storms for Wednesday afternoon and early evening mainly east of Interstate 69 across northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio. Isolated damaging wind is the potential main threat.
- Warmer and more humid for Wednesday with peak afternoon heat indices in low to mid 90s south of US Route 24.
- Isolated severe weather is also possible on Friday, but low confidence at this time.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 335 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Broad positive mid-level theta-e advection across the western Great Lakes has shifted across southern Lower Michigan this afternoon.
This elevated moisture return combined with small scale vort max tracking across southern Great Lakes has allowed for rain showers, primarily north into central Lower Michigan. Passage of this vort max and axis of better mid level moisture will cut-off additional rain chances for the remainder of the day. Focus for the rest of the day into this evening will be upstream as renewed convection develops across the Corn Belt in a zone of stronger frontal/moisture convergence. The upstream short wave helping to initiate this convection will shear out as it ejects northeast into the UP of Michigan, and low level convergence will weaken as this axis shifts into the southern Great Lakes Wednesday morning. Still some uncertainty as to the coverage of rain showers/embedded storms into west/northwest portions of the area early Wednesday morning, but overall trend should be weakening through the late morning hours.
Convective potential for Wednesday remains a challenge as residual cloud cover will likely be accompanying primary low-mid level theta-e ridge as it sags into the southeast half of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon. Weak sfc cool front will also likely be lagging back across the western Great Lakes early Wednesday afternoon, and strength of low level convergence in guidance progs looks to be relatively weak. At this forecast distance, it remains difficult to differentiate whether actual cold front, or pre-frontal confluence zone across the Ohio River Valley will be more favorable for convective initiation. This pre-frontal area southeast of the local area may also be characterized by some pockets of differential heating Wednesday afternoon. Have not made many changes to previous forecast with NW to SE PoP gradient Wednesday afternoon. Westerly deep layer shear on the order of 30-35 knot and potential of some SBCAPES on the order of 2000 J/kg could yield a small window of isolated severe risk in the 18Z-00Z timeframe, mainly along and south of US Route 24. Weak mid level lapse rates and marginal westerly shear would point to main threat as isolated strong wind gusts with precip loaded cores.
Lull in the greater rain chances still looks to set up Wednesday night into early Thursday as this low level theta-e gradient stalls out south of US 24. It is possible there may not be much impetus for return advection and northward retreat of this boundary until later Thursday night as next convectively enhanced vort max lingers back across the Mid MS Valley during the day Thursday.
On Friday, guidance still points to a stronger synoptic upper level trough affecting the area with flow backing to the southwest allowing for better northward moisture transport. Some Dprog/DT trends have indicated a slight tendency to a more open wave, with perhaps a slightly faster progression of SLP minimum and sfc cold front. Shear will be a bit more robust by Friday downstream of this more vigorous wave which leaves the main ingredient of uncertainty as instability. There could be a good deal of cloud cover from advective forcing to begin the day Friday which could limit destabilization. If some moderate instability can be realized, some strong/severe potential is possible given expected background shear.
Passage of this trough will lead to cooler and less humid conditions for Saturday. Maintained some slight chance PoPs across the northeast Saturday as departing upper level trough across the Great Lakes allows for slightly cooler upper level temps and weak pocket of lingering MUCAPE.
Predictability in the finer details diminishes post-Saturday as medium range guidance depicts additional waves in western CONUS northwest flow aloft dropping into the region with additional fropa potential. At this forecast distance, have just maintained broadbrush low PoPs late Sunday into Tuesday along with seasonable temps.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
A weak cold front will wash out across the area this morning.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible but confidence in timing and coverage remain too low to include in the TAF. Better chance for rain at KSBN will be this morning and models continue to suggest a brief period of MVFR ceilings behind the front. Better chance for rain at KFWA will be during the late afternoon but by then better moisture/instability is shunted to the south and confidence is low that KFWA will see any rain let alone thunder. Will hold KFWA dry for now and re- assess with the 12Z TAF's.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 123 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A Marginal Risk of severe storms for Wednesday afternoon and early evening mainly east of Interstate 69 across northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio. Isolated damaging wind is the potential main threat.
- Warmer and more humid for Wednesday with peak afternoon heat indices in low to mid 90s south of US Route 24.
- Isolated severe weather is also possible on Friday, but low confidence at this time.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 335 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Broad positive mid-level theta-e advection across the western Great Lakes has shifted across southern Lower Michigan this afternoon.
This elevated moisture return combined with small scale vort max tracking across southern Great Lakes has allowed for rain showers, primarily north into central Lower Michigan. Passage of this vort max and axis of better mid level moisture will cut-off additional rain chances for the remainder of the day. Focus for the rest of the day into this evening will be upstream as renewed convection develops across the Corn Belt in a zone of stronger frontal/moisture convergence. The upstream short wave helping to initiate this convection will shear out as it ejects northeast into the UP of Michigan, and low level convergence will weaken as this axis shifts into the southern Great Lakes Wednesday morning. Still some uncertainty as to the coverage of rain showers/embedded storms into west/northwest portions of the area early Wednesday morning, but overall trend should be weakening through the late morning hours.
Convective potential for Wednesday remains a challenge as residual cloud cover will likely be accompanying primary low-mid level theta-e ridge as it sags into the southeast half of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon. Weak sfc cool front will also likely be lagging back across the western Great Lakes early Wednesday afternoon, and strength of low level convergence in guidance progs looks to be relatively weak. At this forecast distance, it remains difficult to differentiate whether actual cold front, or pre-frontal confluence zone across the Ohio River Valley will be more favorable for convective initiation. This pre-frontal area southeast of the local area may also be characterized by some pockets of differential heating Wednesday afternoon. Have not made many changes to previous forecast with NW to SE PoP gradient Wednesday afternoon. Westerly deep layer shear on the order of 30-35 knot and potential of some SBCAPES on the order of 2000 J/kg could yield a small window of isolated severe risk in the 18Z-00Z timeframe, mainly along and south of US Route 24. Weak mid level lapse rates and marginal westerly shear would point to main threat as isolated strong wind gusts with precip loaded cores.
Lull in the greater rain chances still looks to set up Wednesday night into early Thursday as this low level theta-e gradient stalls out south of US 24. It is possible there may not be much impetus for return advection and northward retreat of this boundary until later Thursday night as next convectively enhanced vort max lingers back across the Mid MS Valley during the day Thursday.
On Friday, guidance still points to a stronger synoptic upper level trough affecting the area with flow backing to the southwest allowing for better northward moisture transport. Some Dprog/DT trends have indicated a slight tendency to a more open wave, with perhaps a slightly faster progression of SLP minimum and sfc cold front. Shear will be a bit more robust by Friday downstream of this more vigorous wave which leaves the main ingredient of uncertainty as instability. There could be a good deal of cloud cover from advective forcing to begin the day Friday which could limit destabilization. If some moderate instability can be realized, some strong/severe potential is possible given expected background shear.
Passage of this trough will lead to cooler and less humid conditions for Saturday. Maintained some slight chance PoPs across the northeast Saturday as departing upper level trough across the Great Lakes allows for slightly cooler upper level temps and weak pocket of lingering MUCAPE.
Predictability in the finer details diminishes post-Saturday as medium range guidance depicts additional waves in western CONUS northwest flow aloft dropping into the region with additional fropa potential. At this forecast distance, have just maintained broadbrush low PoPs late Sunday into Tuesday along with seasonable temps.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
A weak cold front will wash out across the area this morning.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible but confidence in timing and coverage remain too low to include in the TAF. Better chance for rain at KSBN will be this morning and models continue to suggest a brief period of MVFR ceilings behind the front. Better chance for rain at KFWA will be during the late afternoon but by then better moisture/instability is shunted to the south and confidence is low that KFWA will see any rain let alone thunder. Will hold KFWA dry for now and re- assess with the 12Z TAF's.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KMGC
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMGC
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMGC
Wind History graph: MGC
(wind in knots)
Northern Indiana, IN,
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