DISCUSSION
Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Continued dry, stable and mainly sunny into Saturday with strong subsidence tied to a north-central CONUS upper ridge folding into the Great Lakes region. Saturday will be a touch warmer when compared to today as the associated low level anticyclone shifts more toward the eastern Great Lakes and Appalachians.

Closed upper trough over the ArkLaTex does finally open northeast Sunday into Monday. An impressive surge of deeper moisture will accompany this feature with precipitable water values 1.75 to 2 inches. The leading edge of any shower activity could struggle to reach the area on Sunday however given dry antecedent conditions and impacts from the narrowing Great Lakes ridge. Low-mid level flow is also weak with the primarily instability gradient west toward the MS River. Held with lower chance PoPs Sunday PM as a result.

A better opportunity for scattered convection arrives late Monday afternoon into Tuesday as the the upstream theta-e ridge folds in under perturbed westerlies. Will have to monitor the Monday night period for a possible forward propagating convective complex on the northern fringe of the instability gradient.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 648 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

A large surface high centered over lower Michigan will be slow to move east and will continue to help to guarantee another TAF cycle of VFR conditions. Other than some high-altitude smoke, a waning cu and stratocu field will be about the only clouds during this period.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.