New Buffalo, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Buffalo, MI

February 20, 2024 4:59 PM CST (22:59 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 5:27 PM
Moonrise 2:32 PM   Moonset 5:51 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Expires:202402210315;;652734 Fzus53 Kiwx 202103 Nshiwx
nearshore marine forecast national weather service northern indiana 403 pm est Tue feb 20 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
lmz043-046-210315- new buffalo mi to st joseph mi-michigan city in to new buffalo mi- 403 pm est Tue feb 20 2024

Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. A few gusts to 20 knots in the evening. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.

Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Gusts to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.

Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 37 degrees and at michigan city is 36 degrees.

LMZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Buffalo, MI
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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 202059 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 359 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend continues into Wednesday with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

- Rain showers become likely Wednesday night into early Thursday.

- Turning colder for late work week into first part of weekend, but then becoming unseasonably mild again early next week.

- Rain chances increase again by Tuesday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 355 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2024

Unseasonably mild conditions into Wednesday will continue to be the near term forecast highlight.

Broad low level warm advection continues this afternoon, and will only strengthen this evening and overnight. This warm advection and maintenance of weak low level height gradient tonight will allow for much above normal min temps in the low to mid 30s.
Some low coverage mid and high clouds will work across southern Lower Michigan this evening in association with weak moisture starved mid level short wave. An axis of stronger mid level moisture return will overspread the area late tonight into Wednesday morning with some uptick in mid and high cloudiness.

Wednesday is still shaping up to be the warmest day this work week with continued low level warm advection into Wednesday morning. The current expectation is that mid and high level cloudiness may tend to diminish for much of Thursday afternoon. If good deal of insolation can be realized, low level thermal/mixing progs would support highs from the lower 60s far west to the mid and upper 50s elsewhere. Stronger low level flow profiles should support some afternoon gusts to 25+ mph on Wednesday.

Attention for Wednesday night into early Thursday turns to a progressive eastern Pacific wave kicking of the Rockies.
Primary moisture transport axis will lift northeastward across the southern Great Lakes Wednesday evening downstream of this feature. A couple areas of rainfall focal points may develop during this period, the first in association with strong low and mid level positive theta-e advection from southern Illinois into northwest Ohio. A second forcing mechanism could be across the western Great Lakes, as consensus of guidance past few runs has been for a bit stronger of a northern stream which enhances low level fgen forcing from northern Illinois to southern Lower Michigan. Given these trends, have continued the upward trend in PoPs for the Wednesday night into Thursday, along with a northwest shift of these higher PoPs. The combination of impressive low level moisture profiles and fairly steep mid level lapse rates could support an isolated-scattered thunder potential, particularly from south central Illinois into northeast Indiana. Much above normal temperatures continue into Thursday with eventual frontal passage in the afternoon as frontal wave departs the area Thursday afternoon/evening.

A more significant shot of cold air drops across the region Friday into Friday night with weak perturbations diving into the region on western periphery of a strong northern Quebec upper low. Moisture limitations and shallow nature to instability should preclude much of any lake response however.

Forecast confidence remains high that a sharp warmup will occur late weekend into early next week as flow deamplifies, and as a series of strong Pacific waves induce strong downstream warm/moist advection. Unseasonably mild conditions are expected again early next week with highs well into the 60s anticipated by Tuesday.
Along with the unseasonable warmth and moisture will come the potential of increasing convective potential some time in the later Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. Deterministic and ensemble solutions still are exhibiting some expected large differences in how the Pacific energy evolves which leads to low confidence in exact timing of associated cold frontal passage during this period.



AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1206 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2024

Another dry, sunny, and quiet weather day thanks to high pressure! VFR conditions prevail throughout the TAF forecast period, with operationally insignificant scattered high level clouds above 15 kft today. Winds will remain light out of the south today and overnight, before increasing during the day tomorrow. After 16Z Wednesday, expect southwesterly winds sustained around 12kts with gusts of around 20kts at KSBN and KFWA. Just outside of this TAF forecast cycle, lowered ceilings arrive Wednesday night ahead of rain chances Thursday.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 10 mi40 min S 15G18 54°F 30.1126°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 24 mi80 min S 8G12 55°F 30.13
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 25 mi180 min SSW 8.9G12 30.17
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 42 mi60 min S 8.9G16 55°F 30.0729°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi40 min S 24G27 54°F 28°F
CNII2 46 mi30 min S 13G20 55°F 25°F
OKSI2 48 mi120 min SSW 2.9G9.9 56°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 49 mi50 min SSE 8.9G9.9 50°F


Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KMGC MICHIGAN CITY MUNIPHILLIPS FIELD,IN 8 sm24 minS 05G1610 smClear52°F28°F40%30.13
KPPO LA PORTE MUNI,IN 15 sm24 minS 0810 smClear52°F25°F35%30.14
KSBN SOUTH BEND INTL,IN 23 sm65 minS 1110 smClear54°F27°F35%30.15
Link to 5 minute data for KMGC


Wind History from MGC
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of great lakes   
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Northern Indiana, IN,



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