Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Buffalo, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 134 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Earlier, around midday, temperatures soared into the mid 40s across the area due to strong WAA. South of US 24, upper 40s to low 50s were observed! This mild air is short lived though as a cold front is currently moving through the area this afternoon. As of 18Z, it is draped from southwest Lower Michigan into northwest Indiana and is steadily moving southeast. In the wake of the front, temperatures are falling and winds shift to the northwest. Satellite imagery also shows additional mid level clouds behind the front that are expected to advect in tonight. With clouds in place overnight and northwest winds around 10 mph, radiational cooling will be limited. Lows will be in the mid to upper 20s.

Quiet and dry weather is expected to continue this week with zonal flow and temperatures near normal. Intermittent sunshine, a higher sun angle, and temperatures right around freezing during the day will aid in additional melting of the snowpack. High pressure over the Great Lakes will suppress any chances for precipitation through the work week. Expect highs in the low to mid 30s over the next few days, with a gradual warm up to the 40s by the weekend. The persistent snowpack will continue to gradually melt this week. Considering that several inches of the surface ground still frozen, any water from melt should runoff into area creeks and rivers rather than soak into the ground.

The next chance for precipitation comes late Saturday night into Sunday. Recent GFS and ECMWF runs depict an upper level trough developing over California, eventually becoming highly amplified and potentially even cutoff from the jetstream over the southeast US over the weekend. Ensemble guidance still varies on exact track, timing, and precipitation type(s). Our forecast area getting any precipitation also depends on the strength of building high pressure over Ontario this weekend. We may end up sandwiched between the two systems and not get any precipitation at all. If it does precipitate, precipitation type will be dependent on the time of day (rain vs snow). As for now, have kept most of the slight to chance PoPs as rain as the dominant precipitation type on Sunday given that temperatures should be above freezing. There may be some rain/snow mix Sunday morning in the far northeast.
Depending on the amount of snowpack remaining, if it does rain on Sunday, minor flooding is possible.

Into early next week, a strong upper level ridge is expected to build across the central and eastern CONUS. There is increasing confidence for above normal temperatures early next week given a decent signal from long range model guidance. Highs may potentially even rise into the 50s depending on how much the snowpack deteriorates over the upcoming week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 629 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

The cold front had moved south to the Ohio River at the start of the TAF period. Northwest to north winds prevailed over northern Indiana behind the front. Dew Points were slowly falling, and were still around 30 degrees. Post-frontal stratocu were developing with the help of lake enhancement north of the Michigan line and over Lake Michigan. These clouds were moving in from the northwest. Large scale subsidence was above the inversion and helping to prevent mixing above the base of the inversion. The GFS appears too generous in trying to mix out this layer. Have favored the HRRR and RAP which appear more realistic and keeping the lower clouds under the inversion.



IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.