NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 358 Am Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Patchy fog early. Rain this morning, then a chance of rain early this afternoon. A slight chance of rain late. Waves 1 foot or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 15 knots. A slight chance of rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Rain and snow likely overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
the water temperature at st. Joseph and at michigan city is 45 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 030757 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 257 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 257 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Light rain will move across the area today with some light drizzle possibly lingering into tonight. Additional rain is then expected late Monday night into Tuesday. Some snow may mix in at times early Tuesday morning but any accumulation will be light and mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces. Warmer weather returns for the end of the week.

SHORT TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Negatively tilted midlevel trough will swing through the area today and support widespread rain, particularly north of US-24. Healthy PV advection, left exit jet dynamics, and a brief period of neutral stability aloft are still anticipated and will yield a quick tenth or two of rain. Negative factors include a very quick storm motion with forcing aligned orthogonal to strong mean flow as well as a quick transition to cyclogenesis over the eastern Great Lakes later today. Substantive precip just now entering our area will likely exit by early afternoon though our northern IN Dec specialty (drizzle) will likely continue well into tonight (especially across our north) given persistent moist cyclonic flow and some minor Lake MI theta-e contribution. Surface wet bulb temps remain around or above 40F today but do drop closer to freezing later tonight.
Maintained a snow mention but very marginal surface temps and ice nucleation concerns suggest likely just drizzle. Temps in our NW today will remain in the low 40s while our SE zones could once again sneak into the warm sector of passing low and make a run at 50F.
Lows tonight settle very near or just above 32F in weak CAA.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Dreary weather will continue well into the work week as two more shortwaves pass through the region. This first will pass just south of our area Mon. Still some guidance members suggesting a more northern track but they are certainly in a minority and most places will probably stay dry. Second, higher amplitude trough passes early Tue and guidance remains consistent in our area seeing precip (though there are still some timing differences). Deep layer of modest isentropic ascent (280-290K) and CVA will support at least a brief period of light precip. Bulk of precip during the day will likely fall as rain given surface temps near 40F
However
if earlier solutions prevail some wet accums are possible on grassy/elevated surfaces early Tue morning. Loss of midlevel moisture would suggest a period of drizzle possible once again late Tue into early Wed with perhaps some lake contribution. Will still maintain a snow mention for now though with uncertainty in exact temp/moisture profiles.

Large pattern change then expected late Wed into Fri as a very large trough develops over the western CONUS with downstream ridging (or at least more zonal flow) in our region. Models remain inconsistent regarding details of evolving pattern late week but expect at least a brief warmup followed by some moderate precip chances some time over the weekend as this trough ejects east. Confidence is unusually low for such a large-scale trough so stay tuned this week as details become more clear.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1219 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Another in a series of upper level systems will bring additional clouds, rain, and IFR conditions to the terminals. At the onset, LIFR conditions have settled over the terminals. A large area of rain was just upstream and spreading northeast, poised to spread over northern Indiana. Have continued to keep LIFR conditions at the start of the TAF period, but some improvement is expected as the low pressure area moves northeast eventually away from the area. Rain then areas of drizzle into early afternoon before the visibility improves.



IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Northern Indiana, IN,