Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Geneva, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High clouds have arrived over the region, but the forecast remains on track with a dry overnight period.

Previous Discussion...
Mainly quiet weather is expected through the near term period.
Only minor change from previous forecasts is to blend some 10% NBM for dew points in the afternoon/evening hours given dry mid- level air atop a shallow inversion.

The influence of high pressure will persist through into Friday morning ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest.
This front appears fairly weak with limited low and mid-level moisture available so only have a brief period of low PoPs Friday afternoon and evening, mainly across far NE OH and NW PA.
Another area of high pressure is expected to build behind the cold front for Friday night into Saturday.

Slightly above average temperatures are expected for the near term period with highs in the low to mid-70s. Lows will be seasonable in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
High pressure continues to dominate the majority of the Great Lakes and New England regions through the day on Saturday. Temperatures will be seasonal in the 70s and dewpoints in the high 40s, making for a fairly dry airmass and pleasant day.

Late Saturday night into early Sunday morning a warm front will push northward across the region bringing with it a southerly flow.
Sunday will see an increase in temperatures with highs into the upper 70s and low 80s and decent moisture advection from the south with dewpoints reaching into the low 60s in the afternoon hours.
This is all ahead of a surface cold front approaching from the northwest and will swing across the CWA Sunday afternoon and exit the eastern portion by late evening. There will be fairly decent support with a 80-100 knot upper level jet and a mid level lapse rate of +7C/km. To caveat, there is some capping in the low levels, and with how quickly the system will be moving across the region, there will be uncertainty if there will be enough time to break the cap for thunderstorms. With that being said, the eastern half of the CWA looks more favorable for higher PoPs and thunderstorms, and with the consistency of the models, have opted to bump up the PoPs for that area. Behind the cold front a much drier airmass will move in and see dewpoints dropping back down into the low to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Monday, behind the cold front, will bring back the fall-like weather, with drier weather and cooler temperatures. Most of CWA will see a 15 degree temperature swing from Sunday down into the mid 60s and much drier air with dewpoints into the low 40s. Winds will be gusting up to 15-20 knots out of the northwest supporting the CAA. With the northwesterly wind, the northeast counties may see some lake effect scattered clouds and showers along the shore.
Though with the limited moisture, have kept the PoPs fairly low. For the rest of the week through Thursday, highs and lows will be just below normal in the mid 60s and low 40s, respectively.

AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/
VFR is expected through the TAF period. There are some high clouds filtering through early this morning. Not expecting much/if any valley fog this morning, though will keep an eye on the TOL area for a low probability (20%) chance for brief non- VFR visibility. A weak cold front will move through this afternoon, with mid to high-level clouds. Can't rule out a sprinkle near ERI but no restrictions are expected. Light and variable winds through this morning will turn north-northwest at 5 to 8 knots behind the front this afternoon, before turning more north-northeast and subsiding to 3 to 6 knots tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated to scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. A few stronger wind gusts could be possible.

MARINE
Lake conditions will remain fairly calm through Friday when a weak cold front will cross. Winds will start gusting to 10-15 knots with a winds shift out of the north then veer to the east throughout the day on Saturday. Waves are forecast to build to around 2 feet for Friday and Saturday. High pressure will build in briefly behind the aforementioned cold front and winds will continue to veer around to the south and increase to 15-20 knots as a warm front moves northward early Sunday morning. A stronger cold front will move across the region Sunday afternoon/evening from the west to the east, and the winds will shift to be westerly behind the front and up to 20 knots. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed Sunday night into Monday behind the cold front. Conditions will start to improve throughout Monday but the eastern half of the lake will remain choppy with the northwesterly winds until the winds begin to subside on Tuesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.