Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 9:29 PM   Moonset 6:01 AM

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LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 918 Am Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
This afternoon - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 52 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees, and off erie 49 degrees.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KCLE 251953 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 353 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure drifts east of the Great Lakes and then off the coast of New England by Friday night. A warm front will lift across the area late Friday into Saturday followed by a cold front Monday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure over the Great Lakes drifts eastward tonight into Friday, but not before one last mainly clear and chilly overnight period. Freeze warning, largely for the eastern portions of our NW PA counties, and Frost Advisories everywhere else except for the immediate lakeshore areas. Not as cold overall as last night, but still in this chilly airmass and should radiate fairly well with lots of low-mid 30s, especially in the rural areas. 30F possible in eastern Crawford PA and the southeast portion of Erie County PA, prompting the freeze headline despite the smaller area of potential freezing temperatures. High clouds increase ahead of a warm front Friday, but with the surface high pressure system well east of the area, return flow brings a dramatic improvement to the temperatures that will be 15 to 20 degrees warmer than are being seen today.
Should top the 70F mark over the southwestern zones in the FDY/MNN areas. Showers and a few thunderstorms with the warm front late Friday evening into Friday will move in from the southwest. As of this issuance, just expecting general thunderstorms during the Friday night period. Temperatures not as low behind the warm front, but for NW PA, likely yet to be in the milder air, mid 40s a better bet. Most locations will be under a quarter inch of rain.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SW'erly to W'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances affect our CWA during the short-term period as our CWA remains along the western flank of an amplifying mid/upper-level ridge over the eastern United States. At the surface, a warm front should extend SE'ward across central Lake Erie to near the NE OH/NW PA border at daybreak Saturday. This front should drift generally NE'ward and exit Lake Erie and our CWA by early Saturday afternoon. Behind the front, our region will reside along the northwestern flank of a surface ridge that is expected to become focused just offshore the Atlantic coast of the United States through Sunday night.

The combination of low-level warm/moist air advection from the Gulf of Mexico and southern Gulf Stream, and intervals of sunshine will allow abnormal warmth to affect northern OH and NW PA. Highs should reach the mid 60's to lower 70's in NW PA and the 70's to lower 80's late Saturday afternoon. Overnight lows should reach the mid 50's to mid 60's around daybreak Sunday. Warmer highs in the mid to upper 70's are expected in NW PA late Sunday afternoon, while highs should reach the upper 70's to lower 80's in northern OH. Overnight lows should once again reach the mid 50's to mid 60's around daybreak Monday.

Moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front and resulting release of weak, elevated CAPE should trigger scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over central/eastern Lake Erie, far-NE OH, and NW PA Saturday morning through early afternoon.
Otherwise isolated rain showers and thunderstorms are possible through Sunday night due to the release of weak to moderate instability, including elevated instability, via the following: Moist isentropic ascent preceding shortwave trough axes and low- level convergence/moist ascent along subtle surface trough axes attendant to the shortwave troughs. The best potential for these additional isolated showers/thunderstorms should exist over/near central/eastern Lake Erie Saturday night into Sunday morning as a WSW'erly LLJ develops, undergoes enhanced moist isentropic ascent, and releases weak, yet sufficient elevated CAPE.
Primarily moderate to strong deep layer bulk shear should allow storms to be organized and perhaps strong at times.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft should exit E'ward on Monday through Monday night as SW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances continue to impact our region. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms remain possible due to similar reasons mentioned in the short-term part of the discussion.
Intervals of sunshine and continued low-level warm/moist air advection from the southern Gulf Stream and Gulf of Mexico are expected to allow late afternoon highs to reach mainly the lower 80's. Overnight lows should reach the upper 50's to lower 60's around daybreak Tuesday.

W'erly flow aloft becomes established over the eastern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley on Tuesday through Thursday as embedded shortwave disturbances continue to traverse our region. At the surface, net troughing becomes established and two cold fronts are forecast to sweep E'ward through our CWA; one on Tuesday and a stronger/reinforcing front on Wednesday. Isolated to scattered and periodic showers/thunderstorms are possible due in part to the release of weak instability, including elevated instability, via low- level convergence/moist ascent along the fronts. Daytime highs should reach mainly the 70's on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the 60's to lower 70's on Thursday as a noticeably-colder air mass follows the second/stronger cold front. Overnight lows should reach the 50's around daybreak Tuesday and the upper 40's to lower 50's around daybreak Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/
VFR. Only significant weather is some wind direction changes, mostly under 12kts, but a couple terminals getting above towards the end of the period. CLE currently has some 15-20kts gusts as well. FEW-SCT cirrus for the most part. No precipitation.

Outlook...Non-VFR may return in periodic showers and thunderstorms early Friday night through Monday.

MARINE
E'erly to NE'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected through Friday, but should be as strong as 20 knots at times through this early evening and again tomorrow afternoon through early evening as daytime heating of land surrounding Lake Erie and contraction of relatively-cold lake-modified air result in localized enhancement of the ridge over Lake Erie. Waves trend mainly 3 feet or less, but occasional 4 footers should accompany the enhanced NE'erly winds east of The Islands. Given these very marginal winds/waves, refrained from issuing a Small Craft Advisory. The ridge exits E'ward as a warm front drifts generally NE'ward across Lake Erie on Friday night through Saturday. This front's passage will cause NE'erly to E'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots to veer to S'erly.
However, the S'erly winds may be as strong as 25 knots at times on Saturday and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed. Waves trend primarily 3 feet or less in nearshore waters and no larger than 4 to 6 feet in open U.S. waters.

S'erly to SW'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots Saturday night ease to around 10 to 15 knots on Sunday through Monday night as the aforementioned ridge rebuilds into the Lake Erie region and the core of ridge becomes located offshore the southeastern U.S. Waves should trend mainly 3 feet or less, but occasional 4 to 5 footers are forecast in open U.S. waters Saturday night into Sunday. A weak cold front should sweep E'ward across Lake Erie on Tuesday and cause SW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to W'erly. Waves are expected to remain 3 feet or less.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ002-003.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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