Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for White Pigeon, MI

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near White Pigeon, MI

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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN

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FXUS63 KIWX 282224 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 624 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

Warm and dry conditions continue into the work week with high cloudiness lingering into Monday morning. Temperatures are expected to trend warmer with the greatest chance to reach 90 degree high temperatures coming towards the end of the work week.
The longer our drought continues the harder it will be to eek out any rainfall over the coming days.

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

Surface high pressure and mid level ridging over the Great Lakes along with low level dry air overhead work in tandem to keep the area devoid of rainfall today through Monday. The morning ILN sounding observations show a mid to upper level area of moisture and cloudiness, which is caused by an area of vorticity evacuating west- northwestward from the upper low in the southeast CONUS. This upper level cloudiness is expected to stay around the area through tonight, but will move away Monday morning as the area of vorticity slides through to the west. This should allow more sunshine especially for the afternoon, Monday. As such, expect much warmer temperatures for Monday reaching into the low to mid 80s.

LONG TERM
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

The long term begins with the upper low in the southeastern CONUS trending eastward to the Mid Atlantic Coast as energy from the trough in the west ejects northeastward and begins impinging on the intensity of the ridge over the Great Lakes. At the same time, models have been trending higher dew points into the area for Tuesday. Perhaps this better moisture is why some models are inclined to convect Tuesday afternoon with better instability around. However, forcing still appears diffuse and the column still appears rather dry. Maybe a few cells could form along a potential lake breeze front or other subtle areas of low level convergence, but there isn't a lot of confidence behind that.

The ECMWF located some positive low level theta-e advection in the 925 mb layer, which might be the reason why areas reach the convective temperature on Tuesday and sprout thunderstorms, but that becomes negative theta-e advection on Wednesday and thus our return to a drier day expected, even if Tuesday's chance for rain is small.

As we continue into the rest of the work week, the area of surface high pressure translates to the New England area and the area of low pressure is over the southeastern CONUS again. This keeps east winds continuing into the area, but also restricts the thunderstorm potential with MUCAPE remaining at or below 500 J/kg. These east winds will continue to keep us dry and with some mixing up to above 850 mb therefore the potential is there to see 90 degrees in on our southeast as early as Thursday, but the chance is slightly higher Friday with slightly warmer low level temperatures. A cold front approaches Friday into Saturday, but models are backing off on bringing it as far south as our forecast area. The front could provide a thunder chance if it arrives quick enough on Friday, but this forecast will reflect that the cold front gets slowed up to our north. As such, will take out thunder chances for the end of this week.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

A stalled low pressure system over the southeast US will continue to spread some high cloudiness back over northern IN at times through the TAF cycle. Low levels will remain very dry otherwise on the southern fringe of high pressure resulting in more of the same into tomorrow and beyond (VFR/dry/light northeast winds).

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

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