Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Perry, OH
July 3, 2024 1:47 AM EDT (05:47 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:54 AM Sunset 9:04 PM Moonrise 2:20 AM Moonset 6:31 PM |
LEZ147 Expires:202407030215;;328424 Fzus51 Kcle 021954 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 354 pm edt Tue jul 2 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-030215- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 354 pm edt Tue jul 2 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy this evening, then clearing. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 75 degrees, off cleveland 71 degrees, and off erie 71 degrees.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 354 pm edt Tue jul 2 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-030215- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 354 pm edt Tue jul 2 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 75 degrees, off cleveland 71 degrees, and off erie 71 degrees.
LEZ100
No data
No data
FXUS61 KCLE 030538 AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 138 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
Upper level ridge builds to the east as low pressure centered over the Midwest lifts a warm front across the region tonight. This low will then drag a cold front east across the region during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. The cold front will stall south of the area for Thursday leaving unsettled weather across the region through the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
1:38 AM EDT Update...
Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance.
No changes appeared necessary.
Previous Discussion...
Quiet weather will continue through tonight as an upper ridge and surface high pressure build toward the East Coast. By tonight, a warm front will begin to lift northeastward through Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. This front will usher in warm and moist air with warm overnight lows settling in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Surface low pressure over the Great Lakes will drag a cold front across the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. The front will be entering a warm and moist environment characterized by temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and MUCAPE values ranging between 1500-2000 J/kg. The chance for showers with scattered thunderstorms will increase along and ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and evening, generally between 2 and 10 PM. For now, our entire forecast area remains in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe weather with a primary hazard of damaging wind gusts. There remains some uncertainty with how much cloud cover will move overhead Wednesday morning and early afternoon. Additional cloud cover would inhibit daytime heating which would lead to lower afternoon highs and less instability, therefore decreasing our severe weather potential Wednesday afternoon and evening. By Wednesday night, the front will cross through the region before stalling south of the local area. Multiple upper level shortwaves will move along the frontal boundary and keep shower and thunderstorm chances across the Ohio Valley into the short term period.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A stationary front sags to the south on Thursday and Thursday night.
Model guidance has been trending southward, so right now expected scattered showers and thunderstorms along and south of US-30 during the day Thursday. 20-40% PoPs areawide Thursday night as this front lifts northward as a warm front.
By Friday, an upper-level trough/closed low approaches from the west, with the upper low centered over Wisconsin by Friday afternoon. At the surface, low pressure becomes collocated with the upper-low, with the warm front extending from this low lifting north across the region late Thursday night into early Friday morning, placing the entire area in the warm sector. Most models have a moist environment with dew points rising into the low 70s within the warm sector on Friday, contributing to MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Modest mid-level southwesterlies will result in deep layer shear of around 35-45 knots. There is a good chance for organized convection with at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Low chance PoPs linger on Saturday as wrap-around moisture from the upper low moves in but high pressure builds in by Saturday night and Sunday before departing to the east Sunday night. Monday and Tuesday will feel like summer as it gets hot and humid with daily low chances of showers and thunderstorms.
AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/
A ridge at the surface and aloft exits E'ward through ~14Z/Wed and is followed by W'erly flow aloft, embedded disturbances, and surface troughing. A surface warm front continues to sweep N'ward through our region through ~14Z/Wed. In addition, a weak cold front is expected to drift ESE'ward into our region after 23Z/Wed and near a KPCW to KFDY line by 06Z/Thurs. SE'erly winds around 5 to 10 knots veer to S'erly and increase to 10 to 15 knots with the passage of the warm front. The S'erly to SW'erly winds are expected to gust up to 20 to 25 knots between ~15Z and ~23Z/Wed. The cold front passage will cause SW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to W'erly.
Primarily VFR are expected through the TAF period. Periodic upper-level ceilings early this morning are expected to lower to mid-level ceilings and then low-level ceilings near 5kft AGL in a somewhat sporadic fashion from WSW to ENE between ~12Z and ~16Z/Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the cold front, especially after 19Z/Wed.
Showers/storms are expected to move generally E'ward across our region. Brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 50 knots and brief MVFR/IFR are expected with showers and especially storms.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic/scattered showers/thunderstorms Wednesday night through Saturday.
MARINE
Easterly flow this evening becomes southerly as a warm front lifts north across the region. Southerly flow of around 15 knots is expected tonight into Wednesday morning, with flow approaching 20 knots in the eastern basin. Considered a small craft advisory for the eastern nearshore zones but given low confidence and low impact of the timing, decided against issuing. Will give more consideration to it based on additional observations and model guidance later this evening.
Beyond tomorrow, relatively quiet conditions are expected, and should be a relatively calm Lake Erie for 4th of July. Next chance for stronger winds won't be until Friday night into Saturday when a cold frontal passage brings the chance for 20+ knot southwest to west winds.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 138 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
Upper level ridge builds to the east as low pressure centered over the Midwest lifts a warm front across the region tonight. This low will then drag a cold front east across the region during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. The cold front will stall south of the area for Thursday leaving unsettled weather across the region through the end of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
1:38 AM EDT Update...
Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance.
No changes appeared necessary.
Previous Discussion...
Quiet weather will continue through tonight as an upper ridge and surface high pressure build toward the East Coast. By tonight, a warm front will begin to lift northeastward through Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. This front will usher in warm and moist air with warm overnight lows settling in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Surface low pressure over the Great Lakes will drag a cold front across the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. The front will be entering a warm and moist environment characterized by temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and MUCAPE values ranging between 1500-2000 J/kg. The chance for showers with scattered thunderstorms will increase along and ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and evening, generally between 2 and 10 PM. For now, our entire forecast area remains in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe weather with a primary hazard of damaging wind gusts. There remains some uncertainty with how much cloud cover will move overhead Wednesday morning and early afternoon. Additional cloud cover would inhibit daytime heating which would lead to lower afternoon highs and less instability, therefore decreasing our severe weather potential Wednesday afternoon and evening. By Wednesday night, the front will cross through the region before stalling south of the local area. Multiple upper level shortwaves will move along the frontal boundary and keep shower and thunderstorm chances across the Ohio Valley into the short term period.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A stationary front sags to the south on Thursday and Thursday night.
Model guidance has been trending southward, so right now expected scattered showers and thunderstorms along and south of US-30 during the day Thursday. 20-40% PoPs areawide Thursday night as this front lifts northward as a warm front.
By Friday, an upper-level trough/closed low approaches from the west, with the upper low centered over Wisconsin by Friday afternoon. At the surface, low pressure becomes collocated with the upper-low, with the warm front extending from this low lifting north across the region late Thursday night into early Friday morning, placing the entire area in the warm sector. Most models have a moist environment with dew points rising into the low 70s within the warm sector on Friday, contributing to MUCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Modest mid-level southwesterlies will result in deep layer shear of around 35-45 knots. There is a good chance for organized convection with at least isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Low chance PoPs linger on Saturday as wrap-around moisture from the upper low moves in but high pressure builds in by Saturday night and Sunday before departing to the east Sunday night. Monday and Tuesday will feel like summer as it gets hot and humid with daily low chances of showers and thunderstorms.
AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/
A ridge at the surface and aloft exits E'ward through ~14Z/Wed and is followed by W'erly flow aloft, embedded disturbances, and surface troughing. A surface warm front continues to sweep N'ward through our region through ~14Z/Wed. In addition, a weak cold front is expected to drift ESE'ward into our region after 23Z/Wed and near a KPCW to KFDY line by 06Z/Thurs. SE'erly winds around 5 to 10 knots veer to S'erly and increase to 10 to 15 knots with the passage of the warm front. The S'erly to SW'erly winds are expected to gust up to 20 to 25 knots between ~15Z and ~23Z/Wed. The cold front passage will cause SW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to W'erly.
Primarily VFR are expected through the TAF period. Periodic upper-level ceilings early this morning are expected to lower to mid-level ceilings and then low-level ceilings near 5kft AGL in a somewhat sporadic fashion from WSW to ENE between ~12Z and ~16Z/Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the cold front, especially after 19Z/Wed.
Showers/storms are expected to move generally E'ward across our region. Brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 50 knots and brief MVFR/IFR are expected with showers and especially storms.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic/scattered showers/thunderstorms Wednesday night through Saturday.
MARINE
Easterly flow this evening becomes southerly as a warm front lifts north across the region. Southerly flow of around 15 knots is expected tonight into Wednesday morning, with flow approaching 20 knots in the eastern basin. Considered a small craft advisory for the eastern nearshore zones but given low confidence and low impact of the timing, decided against issuing. Will give more consideration to it based on additional observations and model guidance later this evening.
Beyond tomorrow, relatively quiet conditions are expected, and should be a relatively calm Lake Erie for 4th of July. Next chance for stronger winds won't be until Friday night into Saturday when a cold frontal passage brings the chance for 20+ knot southwest to west winds.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
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Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KCGF
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCGF
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCGF
Wind History graph: CGF
(wind in knots)
Cleveland, OH,
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