Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Perry, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1.) A period of light to moderate snow will impact the entire area this morning, with a period of snow covered roads and reduced visibility likely to slow travel. The greatest impacts will be southwest of a Bowling Green to Millersburg line.

2.) After a few hours of little snow and drier weather, an Arctic cold front crosses the area between 4 PM and 8 PM today.
A broken band of snow showers and potential squalls will accompany the front. Behind the front, a few hours of strong gusty winds and blowing/drifting snow, quickly falling temperatures, and some (limited) lake enhanced snow is expected. This all is likely to lead to a period of hazardous travel conditions area-wide this evening.

3.) Another round of dangerously cold conditions returns overnight tonight into Saturday morning, with Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings in effect. Additional advisories may be needed for Saturday night-early Sunday.

4.) Outside of low chances for light snow, dry weather is expected Sunday through most of Tuesday. Temperatures will begin to notably moderate Monday and Tuesday.

5.) The next organized system looks to move through the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. With a push of milder air, the forecast currently calls for a mix of rain and snow.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A fairly potent shortwave will dive southeast from the western Great Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley through early this afternoon. A band of lift ahead of this shortwave (a combination of height falls/PVA and low-mid level warm air advection) will spread over the area this morning, bringing an area-wide light snow. The strongest low-mid level warm air advection, and perhaps some transient mid-level frontogenesis, will clip our southwestern counties where a more moderate period of snow is likely this morning...with somewhat weaker/broader lift supporting generally lighter snow rates elsewhere across the area. This lift quickly shifts to the southeast by midday or early afternoon, taking the accumulating snow with it and ushering in what will be a brief period of mainly dry weather.

With air temperatures in the upper 10s/lower 20s this morning as snow arrives, and only slow warming until closer to midday, snow will be able to accumulate on roads and impact travel. This snow is expected to spread across the area pretty quickly between 5-8 AM from west-northwest to east-southeast, posing some impacts to the morning commute, particularly across Northwest Ohio where the onset will be earliest. Hi-res guidance suggests a ~3 hour window of snow rates of 0.5-1.0" per hour may clip our southwest counties (southwest of roughly a Bowling Green to Millersburg line) this morning, and it's this area where we have a quick 2-3" in the forecast by midday and where travel impacts will be greatest this morning. Snow rates should remain lighter across the rest of the area, where a general inch to locally two is in the forecast through midday. This will lead to more mild impacts this morning across the rest of the area though with some snow accumulations on roads still likely, particularly on secondary/side roads.

Part of the reasoning for the Winter Wx Advisory expansion was likely impacts to the morning commute with this morning snow, especially across our southwesternmost counties.


KEY MESSAGE 2
A shortwave will dive into the eastern Great Lakes this evening and tonight, with the aforementioned Arctic cold front at the surface pushing southeast across the region between 4-8 PM.

It is important to note that there will be a relative lull for a few hours this afternoon, behind the morning snow and ahead of an Arctic front. This will allow road crews to briefly get things into good shape, but it's important to emphasize to the public that conditions go back downhill this evening.

Along the front itself, strong low-level frontogenesis/convergence will combine with weak instability just ahead of the front to bring snow shower and squall potential area-wide. Snow squalls can drop a very quick 0.5-1.5" of snow where they occur, along with a sudden visibility drop and quick degradation of road conditions. The snow squall potential appears as though it will maximize southeast of a Sandusky to Findlay line, though can not be ruled out (at least on a more isolated basis) across the Toledo area. The combination of some modest fluxes off the icy lake and upslope will likely lead to the frontal burst/squall being more prolonged/intense southeast of Lake Erie, where it may drop a quick 2-3" across parts of Northeast OH/Northwest PA.
Some (limited) lake effect will continue late this evening through early Saturday behind the front, though the airmass does quickly dry starting around 3z/10 PM tonight as inversion heights also lower, which does not bode well for significant lake effect off of 96% frozen Lake Erie. Still, could see localized accumulations of another inch or two overnight tonight into Saturday, particularly if a band with a connection to Lake Huron can develop across far Northeast OH amid the north- northwest flow as several models are hinting at.

Along with the round of fresh snow accumulations along and just behind the Arctic front this evening, gusty winds and blowing snow will become a concern. Low-level lapse rates will steepen behind the front as very strong cold air advection commences, with a tight pressure gradient and quick pressure rises also arguing for strong/gusty winds. 925mb winds increasing to 30-40kt for several hours along and behind the front suggests surface gusts in a similar 30-40kt (roughly 35-45 MPH) range given the favorable conditions for momentum transfer to the surface. A few advisory-level (40kt/46MPH+) gusts are possible, especially along the lakeshore and with any more intense snow squalls, though believe the wind will pose more of a threat of blowing/drifting snow and reduced visibility/locally hazardous travel conditions more so than a wind damage threat. Given this, will emphasize the wind gusts in the Winter Wx Advisory and run the advisory through at least 10 PM or 1 AM (from west to east) to capture the strongest wind gusts and blowing snow potential. Blowing snow can be quite impactful across our western forecast area, where flatter and more open terrain is found, with somewhat more limited (but still present) impacts elsewhere. Winds and blowing snow will likely continue overnight into Saturday, but will gradually diminish with time. Outside of any lake effect that lingers in far Northeast OH or Northwest PA into Saturday, dry weather is expected to take over as high pressure begins building in from the west.

The Toledo area will get the least snow overall (heaviest morning snow to the south/southwest, better squall potential to the southeast) and will briefly warm above freezing this afternoon. All of that leads to some question on blowing snow impacts around Toledo, leading to Lucas and Ottawa Counties being left out of the advisory. Similarly, the east end of the area will see less synoptic snow this morning and some of the snow squalls/lake enhancement may begin downsloping and weakening coming while into the Youngstown area this evening.
Because both ends of the event are relatively lighter in the Youngstown area, did leave Mahoning and Trumbull out of the advisory in collaboration with WFO Pittsburgh. Will monitor observed snow amounts and forecast trends through this afternoon in both areas, and would like to emphasize that the entire area will see at least some travel impacts this evening regardless.


KEY MESSAGE 3
No changes have been made to the cold weather headlines, which are in effect from 1 AM to Noon Saturday across the entire area.
Wind chills quickly fall below 0 between 9 PM and Midnight, bottoming out early Saturday at -25 to -30F in Northwest PA and closer to -15 to -25F across Ohio, "mildest" to the west.
Ambient low temperatures will range from roughly -5 to +5F, coldest in Northwest PA (where a few spots may get as cold as 10F below in the higher terrain) and "least cold" in NW Ohio.

High temperatures on Saturday will range from the single digits in Northwest PA (and the higher terrain of Northeast OH) to the low-mid 10s across the rest of Ohio. Wind Chills will briefly warm above advisory criteria of -15F, though may struggle to warm above -10F in the higher terrain of PA at "peak heating".
High pressure will be more optimally overhead Saturday night, supporting more ideal radiational cooling conditions. Clouds will increase from the west overnight, with forecast lows ranging from a few degrees above 0 along the I-75 corridor to 0 to -10F from North Central OH points east. A few typical colder spots may drop to -10 to -20F if we stay clear/calm across Northeast OH/Northwest PA. Winds will be quite light Saturday night, though given the cold ambient temperatures we can not rule out potential need for additional Cold Wx Advisories, mainly across the eastern half or so of the area.


KEY MESSAGE 4
As a shortwave dives from the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley late Saturday night into Sunday morning, a band of light snow will try to push into western portions of the area. This is not looking like a significant snow by any stretch, but a light accumulation can not be ruled out. The current forecast closely followed the NBM and is mainly dry, though if recent model trends hold we will need to add snow the forecast across western portions of the area late Saturday night/Sunday morning. Another shortwave dives through the eastern Great Lakes on Monday. While the bulk of the forcing will stay to our northeast, we will need to monitor our far northeastern counties for light snow potential if the shortwave tracks a bit farther west/southwest.
Outside of these two rather minor snow chances, dry weather is expected to continue through most of the day Tuesday.

It will still be cold Sunday and Sunday night, with highs ranging from the mid 10s to mid 20s and lows in the single digits to 10s. Highs will warm into the 20s to lower 30s on Monday, and well into the 30s to lower 40s for Tuesday as overnight lows also gradually moderate.


KEY MESSAGE 5
While guidance disagrees quite a bit on details, weak low pressure and a cold front are expected to move through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Generally light amounts of precipitation are expected, starting as mainly rain or perhaps a mix Tuesday night into Wednesday before ending as a bit of snow late Wednesday or Wednesday night as colder air returns.

AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/
The main aviation weather concerns with this 18z TAF update is the ongoing IFR to MVFR conditions across the area right now that will continue through the afternoon and evening. There are some lingering areas of light snow across NEOH and NWPA that are causing drops in ceilings to lower MVFR and some IFR visibility reductions. There is also areas of light fog or BR across much of the area with visibilities between 2sm and 5sm. That light fog/BR should continue for this afternoon. The next aviation weather impact to watch is coming along the Arctic cold front this evening between 22z and 02z with a broken line of heavier snow showers and/or snow squalls. We have all locations mentioned in TEMPO groups for a quick drop in visibility 1/2sm to 1sm with the burst of moderate to heavier snow. Scattered lake effect snow showers will linger this evening into overnight for the TAF sites across the Snowbelt with MVFR to brief IFR conditions at times possible. The rest of the area will see MVFR to VFR ceilings with some clearing for NWOH by Saturday morning. AMDs should be expected later today into this evening with fluctuating conditions as the Arctic front passes through.

Winds will start out this afternoon from the southwest becoming west 8 to 12 knots. With the passage of the Arctic front, winds will increase and become gusty from the northwest 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. The gusty winds will cause some blowing snow and potential drops in visibility 3sm to 5sm for airports between 03z and 09z overnight. Winds will remain from the northwest into Saturday morning 10 to 15 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR with lake effect snow showers and clouds could linger into Saturday. Non-VFR possible with Light snow on Sunday.

MARINE
Lake Erie is ice-covered. A strong Arctic cold front this evening will bring Northwest gales 35 knots to the central and western basin tonight into early Saturday morning. Gusts up to 40 knots are very possible overnight. Some shift of the ice on Lake Erie may be possible due to the stronger winds. Northwest winds will continue on Saturday 10 to 20 knots and then become light and variable Saturday night into Sunday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to noon EST Saturday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for OHZ006-008-017-018-027-028-036-037-047.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for OHZ009>014- 019>023-029>033-038-089.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for PAZ001>003.
Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM to noon EST Saturday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Saturday for LEZ142>148-162>168.