Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fairport Harbor, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A nearly vertically stacked low pressure system will continue to wobble east-northeast across the Great Lakes region into southern Ontario and Quebec today. This is allowing a cold front to sweep eastward across our CWA As of 10 AM EDT, the surface cold front was located just east of Lorain and Marion.
The front will continue moving eastward and is expected to exit the rest of our CWA by this early afternoon. Scattered multicell showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front, amidst moderate to strong effective bulk shear and weak diurnal destabilization of the warm/relatively-moist sector boundary layer. Given the strong vertical wind shear, but weak instability, some storms may produce strong straight-line convective wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph. The potential for severe convective weather remains very low due to expected weak instability. Behind the cold front, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible due to self-destructive sunshine (i.e. thermals reaching their CCL's and releasing appreciable surface-based CAPE in the process) through this early evening as a shortwave trough approaches from the western Great Lakes and notably colder air aloft overspreads our region.

The more notable impact of the low pressure system and cold front passage will be the gusty winds across the area today. A decent gradient over the area will allow for southerly winds of 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph this morning. Behind the cold front, winds will become westerly and increase to be sustained at 20-25 mph with gusts up to 30-35 mph (possibly a tad higher across western counties). These gusty winds coupled with cooling temperatures will result in a blustery Saturday across the area with highs only climbing into the low to mid 60s with the warmest temperatures isolated to the far southeastern counties.

A few lingering light showers are possible tonight across NW PA as a lingering surface trough persist. Not expecting much in terms of coverage given the drier airmass pushing south with a Canadian high pressure. By Sunday, high pressure will become dominant, allowing for conditions to dry out across the entire area. Winds should steadily weaken late Saturday night into Sunday, with west-northwest winds of 10-15 mph, gusting up to 20 mph possible by Sunday afternoon. Overnight lows tonight will be much cooler than recent nights with temperatures falling into the low to mid 50s. Highs on Sunday will be a tad warmer, climbing into the mid to upper 60s with the warmest temperatures along and west of I71.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Finally will get out of the dominant troughing over the eastern CWA with the eventual departure of the upper level low to the New England coast. This will be replaced by weak ridging aloft while the next low pressure system gets organized over the central plains region. High pressure influences from a center well north of the area over Hudson Bay in Canada will also find its way into the southern Great Lakes with a dry forecast through Sunday night, but this will serve to continue the cold northerly surface flow into the region. Back to the central plains region low pressure system, this will make eastward progress with a leading warm front towards the Ohio Valley. Large swath of low/mid level isentropic ascent ahead of the warm front brings POPs back into the fold for Tuesday from the southwest, heading into a wetter period in the long term portion of the forecast as this system moves into our area. Look for temperatures to be around 10 degrees or so below normal in the short term, a trend that will persist for a few days.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Low pressure system moves eastward into southern Ohio midweek pushing moisture further north into the CWA for Tuesday night onward. Upper level low deepens over Lake Erie on Thursday into Thursday, and with the main forcing from the surface system now further east, general surface troughing and cold air advection showers will control the pattern heading into the end of the work week. Thursday will be the coolest day with most locations not getting out of the 50s for high temperatures. Temperatures will slowly modify towards the weekend, but will keep carrying lower end POPs Friday in the cold pool aloft.

AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/
Widespread VFR conditions are expected to persist across all terminals through at least 00Z. After 00Z Sunday, MVFR height cloud decks will gradually push over the area, resulting in all terminals diminishing to MVFR by the end of this TAF period.
There is an isolated chance for some light showers and maybe a rumble of thunder, but confidence in location and timing was very low so opted to not mention in any TAFs. In any showers that develop, conditions may briefly diminish to MVFR, but not expecting any notable impacts to terminals.

The primary aviation concern through this period will be strong, gusty winds at all terminals. Ahead of the cold front this morning, winds from the south-southwest will be sustained at 10-15 knots, gusting to 20-25 knots by late morning. Behind the cold front, winds will shift to become more westerly at 15-20 knots, gusting up to 25-30 knots. Near the end of the period, winds will remain from the west and weaken to 5-10 knots with gusts of 15-20 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in low ceilings across the eastern half of the area on Sunday. Mainly VFR is expected Monday and Tuesday. Non-VFR is likely to return on Wednesday in widespread showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
After a cold front passes west to east across Lake Erie this morning, southwest winds 15-25kts become westerly 20-25kts and wave heights becoming 3-6ft over most of the nearshore and open waters.
Westerly winds become northwesterly Sunday, easing to 10-15kts and wave heights down to 1-3ft. Onshore winds and wave heights 1-3ft continues through Monday, turning northeasterly Monday night through Tuesday 10-20kts and wave heights increasing again to 2-4ft.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>145.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ146-147.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ148-149.