Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairport Harbor, OH

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 181412 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 912 AM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

SYNOPSIS. A trough will linger over the Great Lakes Region today and tonight. A faster moving trough will move southeast across the Great Lakes Tuesday night. High pressure will build through the area Wednesday and will remain in control over the region through Thursday. Another trough will move southeast through the Great Lakes during the Friday into Saturday timeframe.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. The lake effect snow band over Lake Erie and moving into Erie County PA has become more organized over the last several hours. We have received several reports of 3 to 5 inches of snow across the county, primarily in the inland portion of the county south of I-90 and mostly east of I-79. This band is going to persist for the next several hours with snowfall rates near an inch per hour. Therefore, have upgraded the Southern Erie zone to a Lake Effect Snow Warning with another 3 to 6 inches expected and totals getting up to as much as 10 inches by this evening. Have kept the advisory for the northern Erie zone. Reports there are less, more in the 1-3 inches range. The snow amounts are very tied to elevation at this point and will just maintain the advisory for the lower northern Erie zone with an additional 2 to 4 inches.

Original discussion . Focus for the near term will be lake effect/enhanced snow primarily impacting Erie PA. A fairly potent snow band is materializing offshore of Ashtabula/Erie counties this morning, which right now is primarily impacting western NY. Guidance suggests this band will focus more over the northeastern part of Erie county through mid morning. Although the thermodynamic setup is marginal/fair, frictional low level convergence along the lake/land interface will increase steadily over the next several hours, with snowfall rates up to an inch per hour at times. This may drop a quick 3 to 6 inches by this afternoon, and will need to be closely monitored for locally higher amount if the band becomes stationary for a period of time. Have opted to increase snowfall amounts and hold with the advisory, with the higher accumulations expected to be concentrated to a small area in the northeast part of the county. If higher amounts become more widespread or increase in general, an upgrade to a warning may be necessary. The convergence/forcing should weaken a bit towards midday/early afternoon as the background flow backs slightly, disrupting the organization of the bands with more showery activity expected. Hi-res guidance shows a strong signal for reorganization of the bands this afternoon and evening as the flow becomes better aligned, although some uncertainty as to the location of the band has led to a bit more conservative snowfall forecast for the afternoon/early evening. Have opted to extend the advisory through 1 AM to cover this potential. The bands should push into mainly western NY overnight as the flow backs a bit further, but will be really close to the Erie shoreline overnight into Tuesday, but should disrupt and focus more into the Buffalo area during the afternoon.

Elsewhere across the area, light snow along and northeast of a Cleveland to Youngstown line will persist for a few more hours, although any accumulations will be mainly a dusting to a few tenths outside of the stronger lake effect band. Additional snow showers may develop this afternoon as a PV anomaly tracks east across the area, with fairly steep low level lapse rates developing east of the I-71 corridor. This could result in some brief moderate snow showers, but in general snow accumulation with this activity should be a half inch or less. Mainly dry conditions are expected outside of the lake band tonight into Tuesday, although another PV anomaly tracking across central OH overnight into Tuesday morning could bring some light snow to the far southern portion of the forecast area. Highs today will again be in the low to mid 30s, and perhaps 1 or 2 degrees colder on Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the 20s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Westerly flow aloft becomes northwesterly Tuesday night as a shortwave trough moves eastward over the Great Lakes region and the Mid to Upper OH Valley, and a longwave ridge begins building behind the shortwave disturbance. At the surface, a lake-aggregate trough begins to be replaced by a surface ridge building from the west. Steady lake effect snow (i.e. LES) should settle southward across the snowbelt as the mean low-level flow veers from westerly to west- northwesterly and synoptic-scale low-level moisture remains abundant in the cold air mass. Periods of heavy LES are possible since model soundings indicate strong ascent may be maximized in a cloudy DGZ at times. In general, LES accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are expected in the snowbelt, but slightly greater amounts are possible in localized areas. Additional winter weather headlines may be needed. Outside the LES, isolated snow showers may accompany the aforementioned shortwave trough and amount to less than one inch. Low temperatures should reach the upper teens to mid 20's.

On Wednesday, the high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft continues building eastward, resulting in fair weather in most of our CWA. Lingering LES should shift northward across the snowbelt and exit the snowbelt by sunset as the low-level mean flow backs from WNW toward SW. Simultaneously, the LES weakens as lake-induced CAPE wanes via a lowering subsidence inversion and dry air advection in the low-levels. Any additional LES accumulations should be an inch or less. Daytime highs should mainly reach the mid 20's to lower 30's.

Fair weather is likely in our CWA Wednesday night as the ridge at the surface and aloft exits to the east and a trough at the surface and aloft approaches from the northwest. Low temperatures should reach the upper teens to upper 20's, with the coldest readings in interior northwest PA. On Thursday, the trough will continue settling over the Great Lakes and vicinity. At the surface, a cold front should sweep eastward across our CWA as a low moves eastward across northern ON. Models continue to suggest this cold frontal passage will primarily be dry. However, a marginally-cold air mass and westerly mean low-level flow may allow light lake-enhanced snow and rain showers to impact the snowbelt. Little or no snow accumulation is expected as daytime highs reach the mid 30's to lower 40's.

Cyclonic westerly to northwesterly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances affect our CWA Thursday night as the longwave trough persists over the Great Lakes and vicinity. Cold air advection allows a lake-aggregate surface trough to develop over and near the relatively-warm lakes, including our region. Lake-enhanced snow should evolve into pure LES and continue affecting the snowbelt as mean low-level flow veers from westerly toward west-northwesterly. Snow accumulations of several inches should occur as lows reach the mid to upper 20's. Fair weather is expected outside the lake- enhanced/effect snows.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Aloft, cyclonic westerly to northwesterly flow and embedded shortwave disturbances on Friday should be followed by a high pressure ridge building from the west Friday night through Sunday. At the surface, the lake-aggregate trough should persist on Friday before a building ridge begins overspreading our CWA from the west through the rest of the long-term period. LES bands should continue downwind of Lake Erie Friday through Saturday as the mean low-level flow of cold air veers from WNW to NNW. This LES should finally end Saturday night as a lowering subsidence inversion contributes to waning lake-induced CAPE. At least several inches of fresh LES accumulation are possible. Odds favor fair weather outside the LES through Saturday night. On Sunday, widespread light snow showers are possible as broad isentropic lift aloft may begin overspreading our CWA ahead of an evolving low pressure system over the western and central U.S. Temperatures should be near or slightly below-normal through the period.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/. MVFR ceilings will persist for most of the terminals through the period as an upper trough exits the region. Some IFR is possible at the terminals this morning, mainly KERI where lake effect SN should persist for most of the period. Intermittent LIFR conditions possible for the first couple of hours of the period at KERI if the snow band locates over the field. A few -SHSN may impact KMFD, KCAK and KYNG this afternoon that could bring brief IFR conditions. Southwest winds will persist through the period, generally in the 10-15 kt range.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible through Wednesday morning and then again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Non-VFR possible Friday.

MARINE. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 1 PM today to 7 PM EST Wednesday from Willowick to Ripley. In addition, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 4 PM Tuesday to 7 PM EST Wednesday from Vermilion to Willowick.

Marine conditions will tend to be unsettled on Lake Erie through Friday as a series of troughs affect the lake. These unsettled conditions include the expectation of westerly winds as strong as 15 to 25 knots and waves as large as 3 to 8 feet in the central and eastern basins today through at least Wednesday morning. A brief and relative lull in winds and waves may affect the lake Wednesday afternoon and early evening in association with a high pressure ridge. Conditions should then deteriorate once again later Wednesday through Friday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ001. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ002. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ147>149. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ145-146.

SYNOPSIS . Greenawalt NEAR TERM . Greenawalt/Sefcovic SHORT TERM . Jaszka LONG TERM . Jaszka AVIATION . Greenawalt MARINE . Jaszka

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH	5 mi	53 min	WSW 24 G 26	31°F	36°F		1007.5 hPa	30°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH	16 mi	113 min	WSW 8 G 14
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH	27 mi	53 min	W 14 G 16	31°F	39°F		1009 hPa	25°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH	20 mi	38 min	W 12	10.00 mi	Light Snow	28°F	27°F	93%	1008.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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