Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairport Harbor, OH

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 102032 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 332 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will briefly build northeast through the Ohio valley across the area tonight. A cold front will push southeast through the Great Lakes into the area on Wednesday. High pressure will quickly return to the area, building east across the region Wednesday night, becoming centered over the east coast Thursday and Thursday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. A weakening surface trough over Lake Erie will attempt to push southward into northern OH and northwest PA late this afternoon into this evening, while pressure rises continue northeastward through the Ohio Valley into the southern Great Lakes. A modest band of snow has formed ahead of this trough over the lake, and is expected to push onshore over the next several hours, perhaps dropping a quick 1-3 inches of snow. Confidence is low on the exact evolution of this snow and lake effect/lake enhancement through tonight across the snow belt. Hi-res guidance continues to depict the surface trough pushing southeast across the snow belt and weakening, with secondary shoreline convergence setting up northeast of Cleveland, which seems to be playing out with latest radar trends. The models depict one or two lake bands becoming dominant and pushing onshore across the snow belt, with several models favoring a band into northern Geauga/Lake and another into Erie PA.

The current evolution on radar is a bit off from the model depictions spatially and timing wise, but generally on the right track. It seems the potential for heaviest snowfall will occur over the next 4-5 hours, with lingering synoptic forcing coinciding with good moisture from 900-750mb. However, dendritic growth will be minimal with the best lift centered much lower in the cloud layer, and some fairly dry air in the lowest 3kft. Instability parameters are marginal as well, with lake induced inversion heights peaking around 8-8.5 kft. After 00Z, drier 925mb air will work south across the lake, which could limit snowfall as well. Overall, kept the forecast fairly similar to the previous, with accumulations centered a touch farther north in the 2-4 inch range through tonight. Some higher amounts up to 5 inches by tomorrow morning are possible in the higher terrain of Erie PA. For now, with lower confidence in the evolution of this snow, will not issue any headlines and will monitor closely for the next several hours to see how the bands are organizing.

Snow bands will diminish and push offshore around/after midnight as boundary layer flow begins to back more southwest, with continued drying of the cloud layer. By tomorrow morning, the flow should keep any bands offshore into western NY through at least midday. An upper vort max and accompanying surface front will quickly drop southeast through the Great Lakes Wednesday morning. This now appears to be a relative glancing blow for the local area, but enough of a cold punch to reactivate lake effect into the local area, mainly northwest PA. A brief shot of 850mb moisture will follow this wave passage, with winds veering a bit more northwest Wednesday night. Dry air looks to quickly work back across the region, so the snow potential should be limited temporally. Currently forecasting an additional 1-3 inches, with the highest amounts in eastern Erie PA. Snow will quickly diminish after midnight as high pressure build across the region.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. The short term begins Thursday with models showing broad high pressure centered over Pennsylvania. To our west, low pressure will be in western Iowa. This low will move northeast to the central Great Lakes and dissipate by Friday morning lifting a warm front northeast through the region as the high moves off the New England coast. Another low will move into the Dakotas. This low will move into the western lakes Friday into Saturday as another disturbance generates a coastal low in New England from the mid Atlantic coast. Moisture will return north into the region Friday with return flow out of the southeastern states with rain chances into mainly eastern Ohio and nwrn PA by Friday afternoon. Moisture deepens from the south Friday night into Saturday. Will have pops increase to likely for the eastern half of the area Friday night and Saturday. Precip may mix with a little snow late on Saturday far west but precip should be mostly rain. Highs Thursday in the mid 30s. Highs Friday and Saturday in the 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. By Sunday, models show a dominant surface low over northern New England tracking northeast into Canada. To our west, high pressure will be moving east from Minnesota into Wisconsin. Between the two, a cold front will be forced south through the area during the day Sunday. Models begin to differ Sunday night with the ECMWF continuing to bring cold air in the the region while the GFS begins to warm advect. For now will side more with the ECMWF and continue the threat of mainly lake induced precip nern OH and nwrn PA. The ECMWF does eventually show this warm advection increasing into the area Monday into Tuesday ahead of low pressure moving through the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley with moisture increasing across the area out of the southeast. Will keep pops in the chance category for now and go with mostly snow showers monday and a mix Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/. Widespread MVFR ceilings blanket the region at the onset of the period, ahead of a southeast moving surface trough. A band of SHSN expected along the trough, which will mainly impact KERI, and perhaps KCLE for a brief time. This could allow for a brief reduction to IFR visibility, with more scattered SHSN after 00Z through 06Z at KERI. General improvement/scattering of ceilings after 00Z at most of the sites as high pressure tries to nose northeast across the region. Another trough/front will approach late in the period, with more MVFR reductions expected, specifically at KERI, just beyond this period. Winds will generally remain west to southwest through the period, with some gusts in the 20-25 kt range early.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR possible on Wednesday and Thursday with snow showers and low ceilings, especially in the NE OH and NW Snow Belt. Non-VFR possible Friday night with rain/snow and Saturday with all rain.

MARINE. Will extend the small craft advisory across the western half of Lake Erie through 4am Thursday. Winds this afternoon have remained near the 20 knot range on the western basin and are not expected to decrease significantly overnight before possibly rising a few knots on Wednesday. Would have needed on for Wednesday anyway so will just leave headline up. Also, for now, will continue with the gale watch as is and allow later shifts to get another model run in. At this time, current guidance touches gale force for a few hours from about noon through 22Z or so. For Wednesday night, winds will begin to diminish as high pressure begins to build in from the west. The high will cross the lake Wednesday evening causing winds to drop to under 10 knots by morning. The high will move to our east Thursday as low pressure approaches the western lakes driving southerly flow at 10 to 15 knots. Southerly flow will increase to 10 to 20 knots Thursday night into Friday as the pressure gradient tightens slightly. Winds will remain fairly light through Saturday before increasing Saturday night into Sunday from the west to 15 to 25 knots as deep low pressure moves through New England and high pressure moves into the western lakes.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ142>149. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for LEZ169.

SYNOPSIS . Greenawalt NEAR TERM . Greenawalt SHORT TERM . TK LONG TERM . TK AVIATION . Greenawalt MARINE . TK

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH	5 mi	45 min	SW 24 G 31	30°F	41°F		1018.7 hPa	27°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH	16 mi	105 min	WNW 22 G 24	33°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH	27 mi	45 min	WSW 9.9 G 16	30°F	42°F		1019.5 hPa	20°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH

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SW18 G23

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SW18 G22

S15 G24

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH	20 mi	30 min	WSW 14	10.00 mi	Light Snow	28°F	21°F	74%	1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)

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SW9

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S13 G23

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SE3

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SE9 G16

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S17 G26

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S9 G20

S14 G20

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (17,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH

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