Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Detroit Beach, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 162340 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 640 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020

AVIATION.

A strong anticyclone centered within the 875-700mb layer will drift northeastward from the Mississippi River near far eastern Iowa at 00Z directly into Southeast Michigan by 12Z Monday morning. Flow trajectories will remain decidely anticyclonic throughout the night and will persist even through the midday period Monday as the high eventually softens into a ridge axis over Lake Huron by 18Z Monday. In fact, flow trajectories will remain anticyclonic right until the evening hours. Strong surface based stability develops tonight causing winds to become light while steadily veering to the east by daybreak. Extreme subsidence bubble forecasted to work down the atmospheric column with high static stability in the lowest 5.0 kft agl through 00-02Z Monday evening. Midcloud deck will be slow to build downward during the afternoon, before low level jet arrives and deep column saturation instantly occurs.

For DTW . Prevailing VFR conditions tonight with light winds becoming easterly by Monday morning. Low confidence in any Lake Erie based cloud impacting DTW Monday morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 303 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020

DISCUSSION .

Mainly clear skies associated with high pressure will gradually give way to increasing clouds as area of isentropic lift in advance of approaching shortwave works east into the area. Given the visible satellite representation, the trajectory should bring increasing clouds to the southern forecast area first with an expansion into the remainder of the area overnight. Will maintain the current low temperature forecast which ranges from the low teens north to low 20s far south.

Clouds will continue to increase Monday as this system encroaches on the area. Precipitation, starting as snow (or a rain/snow mix south) will eventually build into the area late in the day and expand over the whole area during the evening. A transition from snow to rain still appears to occur relatively quickly, particularly over the southern third to half of the forecast area. By midnight, pretty much all rain is expected. Will maintain current snow accumulations with 1 to 2 inches possible far north to less than an inch south to the higher terrain near the M-59 corridor. To the south of this, boundary layer temperatures appear to climb enough to preclude any snow accumulations.

Once this system passes, a large area of high arctic high pressure will build across the CONUS and lead to a rather quiet stretch of weather for Southeast Lower Michigan. This will bring a abrupt drop in temperatures on Tuesday after starting the day relatively mild in the mid 30s to around 40. Cold weather can be expected through most of the week with highs only in the 20s Wednesday/Thursday and lows in the single digits to teens. Once the center of this high passes south and the east of the region late in the week, temperatures will moderate (back into the 30s Friday and most likely 40s Saturday).

MARINE .

Light northwest winds tonight as high pressure builds into the Central Great Lakes. Light and variable winds become easterly during Monday as the next low pressure system moves through the region into Tuesday morning. The system brings warm air and a mix of rain and snow before moving east. Moderate northwest wind then brings cold air back into the central Great Lakes. The increased mixing depths should have no problem supporting gusts reaching around 30 knots over the open waters of Lake Huron, along with some scattered lake effect snow shower activity into Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY .

Low pressure will bring widespread precipitation to the area late Monday through Monday night with snow changing to rain from south to north across the area on Monday evening. Total precipitation amounts are expected to average between a quarter to one third of an inch. With temperatures only climbing into the mid to upper 30s with the passage of this low, melting of the existing snowpack will also be limited. Hence, no issues with flooding are anticipated at this time.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . CB DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . SF HYDROLOGY . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH	3 mi	121 min	SW 8 G 8	34°F
TWCO1	9 mi	21 min	WSW 8 G 8.9
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH	15 mi	49 min	W 6 G 7	33°F			1021 hPa	24°F
CMPO1	23 mi	91 min	WSW 6 G 8
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH	26 mi	61 min	WSW 11 G 12	33°F			1021.3 hPa (+1.1)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH	34 mi	49 min	SW 6 G 9.9	33°F	33°F		1020.7 hPa	28°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH	48 mi	61 min	SW 6 G 7	32°F			1019 hPa (+1.1)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	49 mi	61 min	W 6 G 7	34°F			1020.7 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI	12 mi	66 min	WSW 4	7.00 mi	Fair	30°F	26°F	88%	1020.3 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI	19 mi	66 min	W 3	10.00 mi	Fair	32°F	27°F	83%	1020.3 hPa
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH	22 mi	68 min	SW 5	7.00 mi	Fair	31°F	27°F	85%	1021.8 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI	23 mi	66 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	32°F	24°F	75%	1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTTF

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (23,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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