Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Detroit Beach, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 8:22PM Saturday August 24, 2019 8:13 PM EDT (00:13 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:36PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ162 Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- 358 Pm Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..West winds around 10 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ162 Expires:201908250215;;149141 FZUS61 KCLE 241958 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 358 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure 30.40 inches from the northern lakes to western Quebec will continue to move east across Quebec reaching the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday afternoon. The high will weaken and drop south into New England Monday and Tuesday as a cold front moves out of the Central and Northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region. The cold front will cross Lake Erie Tuesday. High pressure 30.00 inches will build in from the southwest Wednesday and Thursday. LEZ162-250215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Detroit Beach, MI
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location: 41.83, -83.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 242252
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
652 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019

Aviation
Surface high pressure building northeast of the area will maintain
vfr conditions with diurnal CU fading this evening and re-developing
to some degree by midday Sunday. Northeast flow will begin to veer
to southeast with time on Sunday as the center of high pressure
continues east into quebec and return flow around its western
periphery begins.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 317 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019
discussion...

expansive high pressure (centered over northeast ontario at 1030 mb)
will continue to dominate the weather through the weekend over the
central great lakes region. 12z dtx showed a stout low level
subsidence inversion just under 5000 kft. With the moisture flux off
the warm waters of lake huron, a good deal of flat CU developed, but
is in the process of mixing out. Tomorrow, lake erie will come more
into play as the low level winds back around to the southeast.

Airmass modification should be able to support highs in the upper
70s near 80 degrees, as regional gem indicates 850 mb temps reaching
around 12 c. Upper level energy shortwave over the central plains
will lift into the western great lakes Sunday. This will help begin
to break down the upper level ridge in place, as strong pacific
wave jet leads to digging trough over the northern plains, with a
healthy 500 mb height fall center (-70 m) reaching lake superior by
Tuesday morning. Increasing strengthening southwest flow on Monday
will transport a good deal of moisture into southern lower michigan,
as pw values approach 2 inches. Airmass looks to become weakly
unstable, as showalter index lowers AOB zero Monday night, with weak
mid level lapse rate (under 6 c km). Moisture advection isentropic
assent will support a good chance of showers, but bulk of the heavier
shower thunderstorm activity may hold until Tuesday with the actual
cold front 850 theta-e ridge, with potential diurnal surface based
instability boost.

Upper-level trough axis and embedded PV anomalies to travel across
michigan Wednesday morning into the afternoon, but despite adequate
forcing, post-frontal cool and dry canadian air will significantly
limit any precipitation chances for the day. Increase in mechanical
mixing tied to CAA will tap into stronger winds aloft (35-40 knots
up to h850 per gfs) and will allow for gusty conditions at the
surface around 25-30 mph during daylight hours. ECMWF 12z run a
little less aggressive with LLJ with wind speeds at 25 - 30 knots at
h850, so still room to tweak potential wind gusts leading into the
midweek period.

Surface high pressure to build in across the tennessee valley
Wednesday into Thursday with the northern periphery of high pressure
extending into the ohio valley and great lakes. Mid-level flow to
stay zonal through the midweek period which will bring little change
to temperatures and will keep pops low. Expect daytime highs to hold
in the 70s with lows in the 50s during the midweek with a mix of
clouds and sunshine (clouds will develop in afternoon with diurnal
response).

The next chance for rain and possibly thunderstorms will then enter
Friday into Saturday, however, will hold pops at only a slight
chance as too much divergence is noted between long range model
runs. The ECMWF and GFS have a slow moving low pressure system over
manitoba or western ontario that eventually is pushed eastward which
in turn would drag a cold front across SE mi. However, models
diverge regarding evolution, track, and timing of low pressure. The
canadian is dry altogether as the low pressure system remains north
of ontario.

Marine...

high pressure translating across the great lakes this weekend will
bring quiet conditions with relatively light winds and low waves.

North winds will prevail today before turning to the southeast
tomorrow as the high pressure departs to the east. Winds expected to
stay primarily below 15 knots during this time. Winds remain out of
the southeast on Monday while increasing into the 15 to 20 knot
range with gusts of 25-30 knots possible. The winds will be
increasing in response to increasing pressure gradient ahead of an
approaching front and low pressure system. This system will bring
the next chance for showers and thunderstorms during the later half
of Monday into Tuesday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Sf am
marine... ... .Aa
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 3 mi54 min ENE 17 G 19 70°F
45165 9 mi44 min ENE 14 G 18 69°F 75°F2 ft54°F
TWCO1 9 mi44 min E 17 G 22 75°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 15 mi62 min ENE 11 G 18 69°F 1024.1 hPa53°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 26 mi74 min ENE 8 G 12 69°F 1023.8 hPa (-0.5)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 34 mi62 min NE 11 G 14 70°F 76°F1023.4 hPa55°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 46 mi44 min ENE 16 G 19 70°F 1024.2 hPa56°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 48 mi74 min ENE 16 G 19 70°F 1022.4 hPa (-0.3)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 49 mi74 min NNE 2.9 G 6 70°F 1024.7 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI12 mi38 minENE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F49°F52%1024 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI19 mi59 minE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy69°F52°F57%1024.4 hPa
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH22 mi81 minENE 11 G 1510.00 miFair70°F50°F49%1024.2 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI23 mi39 minE 410.00 miFair70°F51°F52%1024 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTTF

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE4NE4N4N3N4CalmCalmN5N4N5N3N3NE5NE6NE6
G14
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G14
E6E5CalmE6E4
1 day agoCalmN3NE6NE4NE3CalmNE4CalmCalmN5N3N3CalmN4N4N3N8N8N8N7NE4N3CalmNE6
2 days agoW4CalmW3NW3NW3NW4N4N3CalmN4CalmN4N3NE5NE4NE4NE6CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.