Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 9:39 PM   Moonset 6:11 AM

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LEZ162 Detroit River Lt. To Maumee Bay Oh To Reno Beach Oh Beyond 5nm Offshoreline To Us-canadian Border- Reno Beach To The Islands Oh Beyond 5nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border- The Islands To Vermilion Oh Beyond 5 Nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border- 1001 Pm Edt Wed Apr 24 2024
Overnight - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - East winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Saturday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Monday night. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 250337 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1137 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A Freeze Warning is in effect for all of southeast MI tonight through early Thursday morning as temperatures dip into the mid to upper 20s.

- Dry conditions with a warming trend bring high temperatures to the 50s on Thursday and 60s on Friday.

- Showers are likely Friday night with windy and warm conditions this weekend. There is low confidence in shower and thunderstorm potential latter half of Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION

High pressure across the northern Great Lakes will expand across southern Michigan overnight. Dry air will ensure mainly clear skies tonight and Thursday morning. There is some remnant clouds over central Lake Erie. Recent model soundings are indicating that some of this moisture will advance into metro Detroit late Thurs morning, possibly resulting in FEW to SCT clouds aob 4k ft. The gradient will remain light through the day Thursday, supportive of east- southeasterly winds under 10 knots.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 312 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

DISCUSSION...

Mid-level height recovery is well underway today with the departure of the trough axis toward the mid-Atlantic as surface high pressure builds in from northwestern Ontario. Strengthening subsidence combined with significant dry air advection (dewpoints falling to around 20F) has supported rapid north to south clearing trends since late this morning. Southern areas still beneath the lingering stratus/stratocu will see clearer skies by this evening. Very favorable radiative cooling set up tonight with surface high pressure keeping winds light and variable in addition to the drier airmass being firmly in place with model PWATs advertised near daily climo mins of ~0.10". All of southern lower MI remains under a Freeze Warning tonight as a result as lows, outside of Detroit proper and the immediate lakeshores, drop into the mid to upper 20s (~25-28F).

Temperature moderation is muted Thursday as upper level/thermal troughing lingers over the central Great Lakes holding 925mb temps in the low single digits (C) supporting continued below average highs in the mid 50s (lower 50s more likely downwind of the lakes).
That said, with surface high pressure still in place overhead, dry airmass and weak gradient results in a sunny day with lighter southeasterly wind. Pattern shift occurs going into Friday as upper ridging over the Plains shunts thermal troughing east setting up southerly lower level return flow. 850mb temps climb by 8-10C from Thursday evening to Friday evening allowing highs to climb back into the 60s.

WAA is further strengthened by late Friday evening as the elevated portion of a surface warm front lifting out of the Ohio Valley reaches southern lower MI. Front marks the lead edge of the warm conveyor originating out of the western Gulf tied to broad low pressure over the central Plains. ~50kt LLJ accompanies this frontal boundary resulting in impressive moisture advection into southern lower MI as PW values quickly rise from <0.25" Friday afternoon to >1" by late Friday night-early Saturday morning. Confidence remains high on widespread showers overnight Friday into the first half of the day Saturday as the surface front works north through the area.
Latest 12Z model guidance has hinted more at weak elevated instability (<500J/kg) being able to creep north into SE MI late Friday night with lapse rates steepening to between 6-6.5C/km Saturday morning. While thermodynamic ingredients are not particularly robust, the addition of respectable lift along the frontal boundary lends a bit more confidence in the chance for a few embedded thunderstorms during this timeframe. Any that manage to develop are not expected to be severe at this time given their likely elevated nature and very marginal mid-level lapse rates.

Second half of the day Saturday looking to have a good shot at being mostly if not entirely dry once the surface front clears to the north, entrenching the area within the system's warm sector as mid- level nudges in from the Tennessee/Ohio valleys. This sector holds over the region through Sunday as a secondary low develops along the first system's cold front over the Plains briefly stalling this frontal boundary's translation east. With this persistent WAA into SE MI, 850mb temps climb into the mid teens (C) supporting highs well into the 70s if not cracking 80 in the southern half of the CWA on Sunday, especially if mid-level capping holds preventing convection from cropping up. Secondary low is progged to lift into the northern Great Lakes Monday easing the cold front through the state over the course of Monday afternoon into early Monday night with widespread showers/storms in advance.

MARINE...

High pressure will settle in over the Great Lakes tonight through tomorrow, which will gradually reduce winds speeds, bringing light winds through Friday morning. High pressure will then settle across New England on Friday with return flow from the high supporting southeast flow across the Great Lakes through the day. Wind speeds are expected to increase Friday and Saturday morning as a result of the pressure gradient strengthening in response to a low pressure system filling in across the Midwest. Gusts just below gales will be possible across portions of Lake Huron during this time frame, however, extremely stable over-lake conditions should help prevent sustained mixing of the stronger winds aloft. Showers and thunderstorms will also be possible late Friday into Saturday, along a warm front.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ047>049-053>055- 060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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