Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Constantine, MI
March 28, 2024 9:05 PM EDT (01:05 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:30 AM Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 10:50 PM Moonset 7:50 AM |
LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 405 Pm Edt Thu Mar 28 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening - .
Through early evening - West winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight - Northwest winds around 10 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering southeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday - South winds around 15 knots veering northwest late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday - North winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
LMZ800
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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 282322 AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 722 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
* Warming continues into tomorrow with highs mid 50s to mid 60s
* Showers and chances for storms Friday night into Saturday morning
* Several rounds of rain and storms expected late Sunday through Tuesday. Hydro concerns may arise during this time
DISCUSSION
Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Tonight into Friday will feature mainly dry and warmer wx as upper ridging expands over the Central US. There remains non-zero chances for a few sprinkles/showers tonight south of US 30 as a weak mid level impulse tops a developing baroclinic zone lifting into these areas. The weak forcing in conjunction with a very dry sub-cloud layer doesn't bode well for anything more than a 10-20% type PoP. Friday will be a pleasant late March day with low amplitude ridging through the column. The frontal zone does linger in the vicinity with highs mid-upper 50s north to the low-mid 60s south.
A periodically active/wet pattern will become established Friday night through Tuesday as moisture streams northward into an oscillating west-east oriented frontal zone. This will occur under a series of mid level impulses that will eject east in advance of a deep Western CONUS longwave trough modeled to release east through the local area by Tuesday.
The first modest shortwave and associated moisture convergence on the nose of a ~50 kt low level jet will bring showers and chances for elevated convection Friday night as a sfc frontal wave likely tracks east near the MI border. No severe threat with this wave, though wouldn't be surprised if there is some small hail and locally heavy rainfall rates. Shower/storm intensity and coverage then wanes from west to east mid morning through early afternoon on Saturday as the frontal wave shifts off to the east. This will force the frontal zone south toward the OH River by Saturday night and Sunday morning with mainly dry and slightly cooler conditions anticipated.
The baroclinic zone will become increasingly active Sunday night through Tuesday as the approaching upper trough takes on a positive tilt with low pressure tracking east through the OH Valley by later Monday and Tuesday. Rounds of rain and embedded thunder are likely in this regime, especially given the abundance of moisture getting pulled north into the frontal system. At this range models continue to differ on where exactly the axis of heavier rain and potential hydro issues will set up (overhead or just south). Current projections also favor areas to the south for strong/severe convection Monday into Tuesday, though this and heavy rainfall will need to be monitored in the coming days.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 722 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Elevated warm/moist air advection will continue to support some midlevel clouds and a few sprinkles through the overnight, primarily at KFWA and areas S/SW. Dry low levels will maintain VFR conditions though and this will continue through Friday. The next chance of rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms is anticipated Friday night, just outside this forecast window.
Winds on Friday will remain light.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 722 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
* Warming continues into tomorrow with highs mid 50s to mid 60s
* Showers and chances for storms Friday night into Saturday morning
* Several rounds of rain and storms expected late Sunday through Tuesday. Hydro concerns may arise during this time
DISCUSSION
Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Tonight into Friday will feature mainly dry and warmer wx as upper ridging expands over the Central US. There remains non-zero chances for a few sprinkles/showers tonight south of US 30 as a weak mid level impulse tops a developing baroclinic zone lifting into these areas. The weak forcing in conjunction with a very dry sub-cloud layer doesn't bode well for anything more than a 10-20% type PoP. Friday will be a pleasant late March day with low amplitude ridging through the column. The frontal zone does linger in the vicinity with highs mid-upper 50s north to the low-mid 60s south.
A periodically active/wet pattern will become established Friday night through Tuesday as moisture streams northward into an oscillating west-east oriented frontal zone. This will occur under a series of mid level impulses that will eject east in advance of a deep Western CONUS longwave trough modeled to release east through the local area by Tuesday.
The first modest shortwave and associated moisture convergence on the nose of a ~50 kt low level jet will bring showers and chances for elevated convection Friday night as a sfc frontal wave likely tracks east near the MI border. No severe threat with this wave, though wouldn't be surprised if there is some small hail and locally heavy rainfall rates. Shower/storm intensity and coverage then wanes from west to east mid morning through early afternoon on Saturday as the frontal wave shifts off to the east. This will force the frontal zone south toward the OH River by Saturday night and Sunday morning with mainly dry and slightly cooler conditions anticipated.
The baroclinic zone will become increasingly active Sunday night through Tuesday as the approaching upper trough takes on a positive tilt with low pressure tracking east through the OH Valley by later Monday and Tuesday. Rounds of rain and embedded thunder are likely in this regime, especially given the abundance of moisture getting pulled north into the frontal system. At this range models continue to differ on where exactly the axis of heavier rain and potential hydro issues will set up (overhead or just south). Current projections also favor areas to the south for strong/severe convection Monday into Tuesday, though this and heavy rainfall will need to be monitored in the coming days.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 722 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Elevated warm/moist air advection will continue to support some midlevel clouds and a few sprinkles through the overnight, primarily at KFWA and areas S/SW. Dry low levels will maintain VFR conditions though and this will continue through Friday. The next chance of rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms is anticipated Friday night, just outside this forecast window.
Winds on Friday will remain light.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN | 66 mi | 36 min | ENE 5.1G | 42°F | 30.03 | 27°F | ||
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI | 70 mi | 48 min | WSW 5.1G | 39°F | 42°F | 30.00 | 26°F |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KHAI THREE RIVERS MUNI DR HAINES,MI | 10 sm | 10 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 37°F | 25°F | 60% | 30.02 | |
KIRS KIRSCH MUNI,MI | 13 sm | 10 min | NW 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 41°F | 23°F | 48% | 30.01 | |
KEKM ELKHART MUNI,IN | 19 sm | 10 min | WNW 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 43°F | 25°F | 49% | 30.03 | |
KGSH GOSHEN MUNI,IN | 22 sm | 12 min | NW 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 41°F | 28°F | 61% | 30.01 |
Northern Indiana, IN,
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