Sunday, April18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Constantine, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 8:29PM Sunday April 18, 2021 1:48 AM EDT (05:48 UTC) Moonrise 9:58AMMoonset 1:00AM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Sat Apr 17 2021
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds around 5 knots backing southwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots veering southwest 15 to 20 knots toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots veering northwest 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain and snow likely. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
LMZ844 Expires:202104180900;;718348 FZUS53 KGRR 180206 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1005 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ844-180900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constantine, MI
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location: 41.84, -85.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 180523 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 123 AM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 411 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021

Another cold night with widespread frost tonight as temperatures plummet back into the low 30s, and a Frost Advisory is in effect. A warming trend is expected through Monday, with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s, coldest near Lake Michigan. Otherwise, rain and snow is likely for Tuesday into Wednesday. Snow accumulation is possible, and could lead to slick travel conditions for the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commutes. Low temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday night will fall into the mid to upper 20s and low 30s, which will impact sensitive vegetation. Temperatures will warm back into the 50s and low 60s Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 411 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021

Expect clearing skies behind the exiting shortwave this evening as yet another ridge builds in aloft, and surface high pressure settles in at the surface. Thus, a quiet but cold night is in store, with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. There could be some clouds around, especially towards morning as a trough approaches from the west. A few locations further north last night dropped into the upper 20s, and this is certainly possible again. However, it doesn't look widespread enough for a hard freeze warning. Widespread frost is expected, so have issued a frost advisory for the entire area. Locations further east (in Ohio) may see more of a patchy/areas of frost vs. widespread, but didn't have enough confidence to leave out of the advisory for now.

Sunday will be mostly dry as the mid level trough swings through, with limited available moisture. Some of the guidance kicks off a few showers in our southwest and in the far northeast around 21-00z, but confidence is pretty low. Highs will reach into the mid-upper 50s and low 60s. Thankfully, warm air advection ahead of an approaching cold front will keep our low temperatures Sunday night in the upper 30s and low 40s.

LONG TERM. (Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 411 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021

Monday really will be a decent day as we see high temperatures climb into the mid to upper 60s inland from Lake Michigan, warmest along and south of US 24. Near the lake, temperatures will linger in the upper 50s and low 60s. We will see increasing clouds and a few chances for rain showers as a deepening surface low moves from Upper Michigan into Quebec, bringing a cold front through the CWA during the day. This front will stall out just to our southeast. Eventually, the right entrance region of an upper level jet will shift into the plains, deepening the approaching mid level trough and developing a subsequent surface low along the stationary front. This sets the stage for a winter storm to come terrorize the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Perhaps that's a little dramatic, but lets face it. No one wants snow or cold at the end of April.

Monday night into Tuesday, we'll see the right entrance region of the upper level jet gradually shift into our northwestern CWA, strengthening the baroclinic zone. Isentropic ascent ramps up on the 285-290K surface just to our south and increases over our area overnight. This will bring us a decent swath of precipitation in the northwest during the period, which should fall as mostly rain given temperatures in the mid-upper 30s and low 40s. A mix of rain and snow is expected for areas that see temperatures closer to the mid 30s. We'll barely warm up at all north of US 24 and west of I 69-so high temperatures will only be around 38-45F (in the morning). Areas to the south and east will likely warm into the 50s, and far southeast will likely be dry until the early evening hours.

By 00z Wednesday, the broad surface low is over southern IN/KY/TN. A jet streak will round the base of the 300mb trough overnight, which will couple with the right entrance region of the northern jet stream to maximize divergence and allow for rapid deepening of the surface low. The low will cross northeast through Ohio Tuesday night and into eastern Lake Erie by Wednesday afternoon. Unfortunately, this yanks cold air southeastward into our area. The change over to all snow starts from the northwest Tuesday afternoon (18z-ish) as temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s, then progresses southeastward overnight. Lows will bottom out at 24-29 degrees based on current guidance, which will not be good for our fruit trees and gardens.

The only consolation I can provide is that the ground temperatures are warm, and the sun angle high-so whatever falls as snow Tuesday into Wednesday morning will likely be gone by Wednesday afternoon as highs reach around 40 degrees. Additionally, the system moves out pretty quickly once that jet coupling begins. ASSUMING all the forecast works out exactly as I have it for Tuesday-Wednesday AM (used about a 10:1 ratio), and not accounting for the above mentioned factors that will lower total measurements, I get around 3 to 6 inches of snow accumulation along and north of US 24, greatest amounts along Lake MI and across the Michigan counties. South of US 24 I have about 1 to 3", with the lowest totals of around 0.5" in Lima, OH. If I had to sing a song right now, I'd probably sing the following words to the tune of Gordon Lightfoots Edmund Fitzgerald song . "does anyone know where the love of God goes when the snow and cold kills April flowers?"

In the wake of the system, we'll have cyclonic flow aloft and northwest flow at the surface before a strong surface high builds into the area. This will probably lead to lingering showers through Wednesday afternoon in the east before inversion heights crash. Lows Wednesday night will also be on the chilly side as clouds clear out- probably ranging from 28 to 32F.

Thankfully, we go back to warming up starting with 50s on Thursday afternoon, low 60s on Friday, and mid 60s Saturday. Models are in disagreement as to how quickly the high moves out, so they are nearly opposites in terms of precipitation chances (GFS more progressive, ECMWF slower). Kept consensus chance pops for now given lower confidence. The good news is, it should be rain as lows only get down to around 40 degrees.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 116 AM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021

VFR conditions expected through the fcst period with nw winds persisting through 00Z Mon, then shifting sw. Another shortwave will move through the region this afternoon/evening, but showers are not forecast near the terminals.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI . Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ077>081.

OH . Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002-004- 005-015-016-024-025.

LM . NONE.

SYNOPSIS . MCD SHORT TERM . MCD LONG TERM . MCD AVIATION . Cobb

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 47 mi48 min WNW 7 G 8.9 43°F 1014.9 hPa (-0.3)
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 66 mi48 min W 6 G 7 42°F 1015.5 hPa (-0.3)34°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 70 mi54 min NNW 8.9 G 9.9 42°F 50°F1013 hPa38°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Haines Memorial Airport, MI9 mi53 minN 010.00 miFair35°F23°F63%1013.5 hPa
Sturgis, Kirsch Municipal Airport, MI13 mi53 minN 010.00 miFair38°F26°F63%1012.9 hPa
Goshen, Goshen Municipal Airport, IN22 mi55 minW 510.00 miFair35°F24°F64%1014.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHAI

Wind History from HAI (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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