Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shorewood-Tower Hills-Harbert, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 150 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

While the overall severe threat is less for the next day or 2, the potential for strong to possibly severe storms as well as heavy rain will persist into Thursday as the region remains on the warm side of a persistent trough to the west. The discussion will focus mainly through Saturday before the pattern breaks for at least a short time. A series of MCV's and other weaker disturbances, remnant outflow boundaries and a decent upper level trough, will all aid in the development of multiple rounds of showers and storms into Thursday. Greatest severe threat today appears to exist where it has the past couple of days from IA/IL area southwest into OK and TX, but our area lies in a Slight risk (2 out of 5)
for large hail and damaging winds. Cloud cover and multiple rounds of precip will likely limit more substantial instability, but enough shear and CAPE will exist to bring a threat for stg- svr storms.

The first round of showers/storms was moving northeast across NW parts of the area. A small area of storms has been intensifying with strong indications of hail and possibly gusty winds. This will continue ENE and pose a threat for severe weather. SWOMCD #446 was just sent by SPC discussing the concerns through the remainder of the afternoon. CAMs generally suggest another round towards 00Z and again overnight as the sfc low passes to our NW. Severe threat could return again towards evening with all modes of severe possible again, but impacts of current storms could limit the concerns. On the hydro side, most areas dodged the heavy rainfall last night (far south and far north mainly), but with several rounds expected through tonight, opted to expand the Flood Watch to the entire area and expire at 12Z Thu. Do not expect widespread flood issues, but there will be swaths of heavier rainfall that could impact small creeks, streams and low areas as well as eventually cause rising river levels.

Showers may linger into the start of Thursday, but model trends seem to suggest that the severe threat may shift more towards the east as the area is likely convectively overturned and main upper level support is exiting. SPC DY2 reflects this with a Marginal Risk across SE half or so of the area and could see this possibly being trimmed further in future outlooks.

In the wake of the trough and increasing upper level heights we should get a break in precip Thursday night into Friday evening before a stronger trough (entering the Pacific NW) dives into the Plains and eventually makes it to the Great Lakes into Sat. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase with this, but overall timing of the cold front now favors a less than ideal situation (late Fri night into early Sat). This is reflected with the main severe threat Fri to our west and then the 15% severe prob mainly east on Sat.
Time to sort that out. Colder air then arrives behind this front with a brief return to 40s and 50s Sunday then moderation back into the 60s and 60s for the work week. Rain chances appear limited at this point, but another strong trough will be to the west that most likely will bring precip chances back.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 119 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026

MVFR vsbys cigs in scattered thunderstorms this afternoon for both sites mainly through 21Z and again after 02Z tonight.
Convective activity will diminish towards daybreak with VFR conditions then expected into Thursday afternoon. Southwesterly winds will be around 10-15 kts with stronger gusts in thunderstorm outflows. Breezy southwest winds continue on Thursday with gusts around 25 kts.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for INZ005>009-012>015- 017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025.
MI...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...None.