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FXUS61 KBGM 040832 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 332 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Cooler air overspreads the region, with lake effect rain showers today gradually changing to some snow showers tonight.
This precipitation will be mainly in Central New York, though a rogue sprinkle or flurry could get into a bordering county of Pennsylvania at times. The weather will remain cool with a few passing chances of snow showers Tuesday through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
330 AM Update...
Cooler air will gradually overspread the region, with a minor lake effect response causing rain showers changing to snow showers from the Twin Tiers northward. Accumulations, while limited, will be mainly in higher terrain of Central New York.

A cold front has finished passing through the region, with -5 to -7C 850mb temperatures advecting in from the west. Water temperatures remain warm enough for that combination to generate at least a minor lake response, even though initially it will be all liquid. With time, the boundary layer will become cold enough for mixing/changing over to snow showers late today through tonight. Temperatures this morning are near their highs for today; in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Tonight they will settle down into the upper 20s to lower 30s, followed by 30s to near 40 Tuesday.

Radar imagery shows a pretty good lake effect rain band coming off of Lake Erie, which some models and especially the Canadian- Regional, takes across the Twin Tiers. Meanwhile, Lake Ontario will generate showers for points farther north. For now this will mean bands of showers streaming across much of the area, with persistent post-frontal stratocumulus clouds as well. It will take until nightfall for wetbulb temperatures to get cold enough to support snow as precipitation type instead of rain; first in the higher terrain but eventually all elevations overnight.
That said, amounts will remain light, and not everyone will receive precipitation. By Tuesday, any lingering lake effect will be shallow, negligible, and mainly in the morning for Central New York. Lake clouds will attempt to diminish yet high clouds will already be thickening aloft ahead of our next wave.

Liquid-equivalent of precipitation today through Tuesday will range from none in Wyoming Valley-Poconos to less than a tenth of an inch for NY-PA border counties; then about one-two tenths of an inch for the NY Thruway counties. Meanwhile, snow accumulations will be minor and mainly tonight. Higher terrain in the typically more prone areas of Southern Cayuga, Onondaga, Oneida, Madison, Northern Cortland, Northern Otsego, and Northern Chenango Counties could pick up a half inch to inch of snow. The remainder of the area, where snow even occurs, will generally be less than a half inch and mainly high terrain.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
320 AM Update:

With 850mb temperatures falling to around -10C and a northwest flow (albeit a weak one), combined with a weak shortwave moving through, some lake effect snow showers are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday across the Finger Lakes Region and perhaps as far south as the Southern Tier of NY. Dry conditions are expected for Northeast PA to the Catskills with partial clearing. Any additional snow accumulations will be light; mainly less than an inch.

Some additional lake effect snow showers are possible Wednesday morning, but otherwise an overall drying trend is expected as high pressure briefly moves in. Lake effect clouds will linger across much of Central NY, but partly sunny skies are expected farther south in Northeast PA. Highs are expected to be in the lower to mid 30s.

High pressure keeps conditions mainly dry Wednesday night. By Thursday morning, a weak clipper system will approach the area and work its way through the area during the day on Thursday.
This may bring a light rain/snow mix to the area, especially across Central NY. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies are expected with highs mainly in the 30s.

Whatever precipitation is left from the passing clipper system will quickly end Thursday night with ridging building in.
Temperatures will likely not fall very much, with lows expected to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
320 AM Update:

Relatively quiet weather is expected to start the long term period, before a potentially more significant system may impact the area sometime within the Saturday night-Monday timeframe.

Ridging will keep conditions mainly dry for Friday and much of Saturday, although a wave riding along this ridge across Canada may touch off a few rain or snow showers Friday night into Saturday morning. This ridge will also bring mild air into the region, with highs on Friday mainly in the 40s, and mid 40s to lower 50s for highs on Saturday. Partly sunny skies are generally expected during this period, with more cloud cover across Central NY/less cloud cover for Northeast PA.

The pattern becomes more interesting for the second half of the weekend as a rather amplified trough will allow for a deep low pressure system to form. This low will likely track northeastward through the Great Lakes Region, putting our region in the warm sector. Should this remain the case, this system would be a rain-maker for our region, perhaps mixing with snow on the backside of it as colder air filters in. As is usual this far out, there are rather significant timing differences in this system and differences regarding how amplified the trough gets.
Confidence is rather high in seeing widespread precipitation sometime between the Saturday night and Monday timeframe, but exactly when this will occur is uncertain.

With this low pressure system potentially getting quite deep, gusty winds will also be another potential impact. Considering how far out this is, stuck with the National Blend of Models for now for winds, but even this gives widespread 30-40 mph gusts across the area. Looking at some of the probabilistic guidance, it is certainly possible gusts could be higher, potentially approaching advisory criteria. This will continue to be monitored as we progress through this week.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
06Z Update...
A cold front is just finishing passing through the area at 06Z, though marginal low level wind shear will linger up to 08Z for KRME along with frontal showers. Behind the front, westerly winds will prevail across the terminals with gusts 15-20 knots through today; ever so slightly veering to west-northwest into this evening while diminishing somewhat. We will also enter a post-frontal lake effect regime with MVFR to fuel alternate ceilings, and spotty showers as well for KSYR-KRME-KITH-KBGM.
This lake effect event will be minor, and generally in the form of rain initially before mixing with snow this evening for any that happens to remain. KAVP will spend most of the time with ceilings at VFR, until some lowering into 2-3 kft agl range this evening.

Outlook...

Late Monday night through Wednesday...Occasional minor restrictions possible in scattered snow showers, mainly at the Central NY terminals. Rain could mix in during afternoon hours.

Wednesday Night through Thursday evening...Mainly VFR Wednesday night, but a passing clipper system Thursday could yield brief shot of light snow and associated restrictions.

Friday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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