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LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 942 Pm Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Rest of tonight..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely with a slight chance of rain showers late this evening, then a chance of snow showers with a slight chance of rain showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers with a slight chance of rain showers in the morning, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers in the morning, then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 44 degrees, off cleveland 45 degrees, and off erie 44 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 060222 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 922 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
A low pressure system over the area this afternoon will depart to the southeast tonight. High pressure will build behind the system for Wednesday and Wednesday night before departing to the southeast on Thursday and Friday. A potent low pressure system will lift northeast across the Great Lakes region on Saturday and Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

9:21 PM EST Update...

The forecast remains on track per latest trends in obs and model guidance. Expect any lingering rain showers to transition to a rain/snow mix or just snow by the wee hours of Wednesday morning as net low-level CAA allows any lingering surface-based melting layer to weaken or disappear. Please see the rest of the near-term discussion for further details.

7:05 PM EST Update...

Most of the forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance. Only change was to adjust POP's through this evening to account for widespread precip exiting SE'ward faster than predicted previously. This light precip is associated with moist isentropic ascent aloft preceding the axis of a potent shortwave trough. The shortwave's axis essentially bisects our CWA from northwest to southeast. This axis and preceding light rain/snow showers should exit the rest of our region by ~10 PM EST this evening with trace snow accumulations at most.
Otherwise primarily light lake-effect rain/snow showers will continue to stream generally SSE'ward across NW PA, NE OH, and vicinity through daybreak Wednesday as lake-induced thermodynamics remain favorable over Lake Erie, yet a stabilizing ridge at the surface and aloft builds from the north-central U.S., behind the aforementioned shortwave trough.
Please see discussion below for more details.

Previous Discussion...

Low pressure over the Ohio Valley pulls away with associated areal rain/snow mix ending from north to south this afternoon/evening. Cold air aloft with 850 mb temperatures around -8 to -9 C should support scattered lake effect snow showers across parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Most of the snowbelt will only observe a dusting but parts of Northwest Pennsylvania, especially south of I-90 and east of I-79, could see 1-3" of snow accumulations tonight through Wednesday. Most of the snow accumulation will occur tonight.

A subtle shortwave may bring light, scattered rain showers to parts of Northwest Ohio Wednesday afternoon. Showers initially develop downstream of Lake Michigan, but minor lift from the shortwave along with low-level moisture/lapse rates should keep those showers going into parts of Northwest Ohio.

Another shortwave trough comes across the eastern portion of the Great Lakes Wednesday night, with additional light snow possible across far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.
Generally expecting less than an inch of snow.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Low to mid level ridging builds eastward over the local area to end the work week. This allows for mean layer flow to turn southwesterly which will usher in drier and warmer air into the lower Ohio Valley.
Should be a relatively quiet period of weather in the short term with lingering low end PoPs across NW PA through Thursday afternoon as a mid level disturbance continues to exit to the east.

Anticipate high temperatures a few degrees above normal as they rise into the upper 40s to lower 50s Thursday and Friday. Low temperatures on Thursday night settle in the mid to upper 30s along and east of I-71 with lower 30s across extreme portions of northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Warm air advection on Friday will allow for warmer overnight lows Friday night in the 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Our brief period of quiet weather comes to an end this weekend. Deep upper trough and embedded shortwave will allow for surface low pressure to move over our forecast area Saturday night into Sunday.
Expect for widespread rainfall and gusty conditions this weekend as the low pressure system and accompanying cold front cross the area.
Current QPF amounts areawide generally around an inch with wind gusts up to 35 MPH. Temperatures ahead of the cold front Saturday rise into the upper 50s, approaching 60 in some spots, for afternoon highs. Overnight lows ahead of the front settle in the 40s. The cold front will cross over the forecast area during the day Sunday with highs in the low 50s likely achieved early in the day Sunday. Any lingering precipitation will change from rain to snow by Sunday evening as surface and temperatures aloft drop below freezing.
Lingering troughing behind the aforementioned system may allow for lake effect snow showers to continue through early next week. Low temperatures Sunday night through Monday night will fall into the mid to upper 20s each night. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday return closer to normal as they settle in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/
Aloft, the axis of a disturbance essentially bisected our region from northwest to southeast as of 00Z/Wed. This disturbance's axis continues moving SE'ward and should exit the rest of our region by ~03Z/Wed. Behind the disturbance, an expansive ridge builds from the northern Great Plains and vicinity through 00Z/Thurs. At the surface, a trough continues to exit SE'ward through ~03Z/Wed and is followed by a ridge building from the Upper Midwest through the end of the TAF period. In response, our regional surface winds will back gradually from N'erly or NW'erly toward W'erly and remain around 5 to 10 knots.

Widespread low clouds are forecast to persist through 00Z/Thurs and result in ceilings primarily near 1.5 kft to 3.5 kft AGL.
However, pockets of IFR ceilings are possible through ~15Z/Wed.
Widespread, light rain/snow showers associated with the aforementioned disturbance aloft continue to exit generally SE'ward through ~03Z/Wed. Otherwise, lake-effect showers, mainly light and in the form of snow, are expected to stream generally SSE'ward or SE'ward from Lake Erie through ~18Z/Wed.
Thereafter, these showers will stream generally SE'ward and eventually E'ward from the lake. Periodic MVFR visibility is expected in steadier precip.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periods of rain and/or snow Wednesday night into Thursday in NE OH and NW PA. Widespread rain with non-VFR possible this Saturday through Sunday.

MARINE
Flow over the lake should remain northerly between 10 and 15 knots tonight into Wednesday afternoon. A ridge of high pressure builds northeast toward Lake Erie during the day Wednesday and will gradually turn winds southwesterly Wednesday evening into Thursday.
Southwesterly winds could increase to small craft criteria Thursday afternoon into the end of the week, though highest winds are currently forecasted to remain across the open waters of Lake Erie.
Low pressure will swing a cold front eastward across Lake Erie this weekend, with westerly winds behind the front high enough to warrant a small craft advisory issuance.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

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