Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ashtabula, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1.) Unusually-cold air temperatures persist through Monday night.
Frost and sub-32F low temperatures are a concern again Monday night into Tuesday morning.

2.) A warming trend will begin Tuesday and continue through this upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
There are some lingering scattered rain showers mixing with wet snow early this morning across portions of northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. The trend is for these showers to decrease and move out of the area before sunrise this morning.
High pressure centered over the Upper Midwest and Lower Great Lakes region will continue to build over the area today. Skies will clear out today allowing for mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions. High temperatures will be below average ranging from the lower 40s over NWPA and NEOH to the middle and upper 40s over NWOH this afternoon. The center of the high pressure will be right over NEOH by this evening. With light winds and clear skies, temperatures should drop quickly after sunset this evening into the middle 20s over NWPA and the upper 20s to lower 30s over NEOH and north central Ohio. Most of northern Ohio and NWPA is under a Freeze Warning again tonight into Tuesday morning with the exception of northwest Ohio where temperatures will fall in the middle 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
A warming trend and shift in the weather pattern will begin Tuesday. The area will be on the backside of the exiting high pressure system with a return of southerly winds on Tuesday.
High temperatures will range from the lower 60s across NWPA and the middle to upper 60s across NEOH and north central Ohio.
High temperatures will reach the lower 70s across NWOH Tuesday afternoon with plenty of sunshine. A weak front will drop through the Great Lakes region Tuesday night into early Wednesday with scattered rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible. This front will have not much impact to our temperatures on the backside Wednesday. High temperatures will still range from the middle 60s to lower 70s.

An upper level ridge will track from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Thursday. Much warmer weather is expected by Thursday and Friday with highs in the middle and upper 70s, some locations may reach 80 degrees. The next weather system to impact the region will be a cold front this weekend with scattered chances for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms possible. Highs this weekend will be in the middle to upper 60s.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
High pressure building overhead has allowed for conditions to dry out across all of the terminals. Some lake clouds with the colder air across the area will continue to push into NE OH and NW PA this morning but will fade this afternoon with moderating temperatures and drier air entering the region. These clouds should stay in the low VFR range between 3500-6000 ft. Clear skies will then reign for the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. Winds will be light at 10 kts or less and generally north to northwest.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Tuesday night and Wednesday in rain showers, some isolated thunderstorms are also possible.

MARINE
Overall, it appears to be an uneventful marine weather week on Lake Erie. Light northwest flow will continue on the lake today with high pressure moving across the region. This feature will move east tonight and winds will become southerly. A warm front moving across the lake on Tuesday will enhance southwest flow on the lake, but flow should remain below 20 kts. A cold front will move over the lake on Tuesday night and pass to the south for Wednesday, bring a brief window of northwest flow. High pressure will enter from the north behind the front, shifting east on Thursday, bringing light east flow then southeast winds. A system will approach the lake for the end of the week and southerly winds will increase on Friday. Overall, no marine headlines are expected at this time.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Freeze Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for OHZ003-006>014- 017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ009>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Freeze Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for PAZ001>003.
Freeze Warning from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.