Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ashtabula, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) High pressure will build in and turn milder early this week.

2) Colder temperatures and unsettled weather will return towards the end of the week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure over the lower Ohio Valley will start to build into the area today. Most of the cloud cover has eroded away across northwest and north central Ohio. Lingering lake effect clouds are still holding on to far NEOH and NWPA this morning.
High temperatures will be seasonable today in the middle to upper 50s. A weak cold front will brush by to the northeast tonight and bring a few scattered rain showers to far NEOH and NWPA. Monday's high temperatures will be similar as today in the lower to middle 50s. High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern through mid week with high temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s through Wednesday. Dry weather is expected Monday through Wednesday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Model guidance indicates the potential for an unsettled and colder weather pattern by the end of this week. There are some forecast model differences and uncertainty Thursday through Saturday. The main message for the long term forecast period will be that a deep upper level trough will develop and dig across the Great Lakes and much of the eastern U.S. Thursday through Saturday. A low pressure system and cold front will sweep through the Ohio Valley into the New England region Thursday into Friday. The track and strength of this system will have an impact on what type of weather we see. Right now, we will mention colder temperatures and the likely chance for rain Wednesday night and Thursday, possibly mixed with some wet snow at times Thursday night through Saturday. High temps will be in the 40s and overnight temps in the 30s.

AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/
VFR conditions are observed and will mainly prevail through the TAF period. Lingering lake effect clouds impacting ERI will scatter out and exit to the east this morning. A dry cold frontal passage is expected this evening. Lake effect clouds and perhaps a few showers will settle into far Northeast OH and Northwest PA overnight tonight into Monday. Any potential for restrictions with the lake effect is too low to include in the TAFs with this cycle. Southwest winds will increase to 10-20kt with gusts up to 30kt today, shifting west-northwest tonight and diminishing to 6-12kt behind the front. An exception is along the lakeshore, including ERI and perhaps as far west as CLE where slightly strong winds with gusts to 25kt are possible behind the front through most of tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in rain showers and low ceilings Wednesday night and Thursday.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisories are in effect today through Monday afternoon. A surface pressure gradient will increase today leading to southwesterly winds 20 to 30 knots this afternoon. Wave heights will subsequently build to 5-8 feet across the nearshore waters and 8-10 feet in the open waters of the central and eastern basins today. A weak cold front will swing southeastward across the lake tonight into early Monday morning causing winds to return from the northwest 20 to 25 knots. High pressure build in and remain in control Monday with wind speeds decreasing 10 to 20 knots and wave heights subsiding to 2 feet or less by Monday night.

There will likely be a brief window Tuesday with southwesterly winds increasing 20 to 25 knots and waves build to 3-6 feet.
Another set of Small Craft Advisories may be needed for the central and eastern basins. A stronger low pressure may develop and track across the Upper Ohio Valley later this week with stronger winds and higher waves again on Lake Erie.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ142- 143.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for LEZ144-145.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Monday for LEZ146>149.