Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashtabula, OH

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 100951 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 451 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front moving through the eastern Great Lakes region today will reach the East Coast by this evening. A reinforcing arctic cold front will cross the region on Wednesday. High pressure enters from the west on Wednesday night and persists over the eastern United States through Thursday night. Low pressure enters from the southeast on Friday and will move along the East Coast on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A cold front moving through the forecast area this morning will move off to the east, clearing much of the synoptic rainfall that impacted the area on Monday. Behind this front, cold air entering the region will be the main focus for lake effect snow development over the region, which can already be seen over western Lower Michigan. Fairly good synoptic moisture remains over the area and westerly flow over Lake Erie will allow for snow to develop and push into the snow belt region of NE OH and NW PA. The main concern with this snowfall is how quickly the boundary layer deepens today behind the cold front. Forecast soundings over the region show that the inversion is slow to rise and the boundary layer and deeper moisture may not enter the better snow growth zone until much later this afternoon. With that, snowfall rates will be diminished and the forecast reflects scattered to likely snow showers with minor accumulations across the area. The highest accumulations are expected in NW PA of 1 to 2 inches where more convective and higher ratio snow is expected later towards evening. High temperatures will be achieved early today with the cold frontal passage. Several locations saw midnight high temperatures this morning in the 40s and 50s. Temperatures will fall through the day into the 30s.

By tonight, lake effect snow should become more organized, but dry air entering from the west will begin shrinking the impacted areas towards just NW PA, where another 1 to 3 inches of snow is possible. As this dry air enters, winds will shift around more towards the southwest and lake effect snow will be more favored offshore of OH and PA and into western NY. Have PoPs diminishing quickly after midnight and remaining low into Wednesday. Elsewhere, this dry air will allow for clearing conditions and radiational cooling. This, along with a colder air mass in place, will allow for temperatures to fall into the 20s and likely upper teens in several locations inland.

A reinforcing arctic cold front will enter the region on Wednesday. This feature will bring colder air aloft and veer winds over the region to the west. This will further enhance ongoing lake effect snow over eastern Lake Erie and cause a flow more favorable for snow to re-enter into the PA and OH Snow Belt region. The best timing for snow to return will be in the 4 PM to 10 PM time frame on Wednesday. This will be the time period when there is good saturation and lift within the DGZ, and snowfall rates could approach an inch per hour in NW PA. At least 1 to 3 inches of snow should be expected in this area with minor accumulations elsewhere in the snow belt. Outside of the snow belt, dry conditions with a mix of sun and clouds is expected. Temperatures will be well below normal in the 20s across the forecast area.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Band of snow showers quickly shifts inland and diminishes on Wednesday night as moisture strips away down to 850mb. Will expect to hold onto clouds downwind of Lake Erie and possibly some flurries as long as we maintain a northwest flow off the Lake. Surface high pressure will be located overhead on Wednesday night before shifting into Pennsylvania on Thursday morning. With light winds and clear skies across much of the area, lowered minimum temperatures several degrees with inland sites dipping into the lower teens while lakeshore areas remain closer to 20. Southerly winds will develop on the back side of the surface high on Thursday with temperatures warming 6-10 degrees from Wednesday's highs.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As a weak shortwave passes to the north of the Great Lakes on Friday, attention turns towards a developing low off the East Coast and an approaching short wave from the west on Friday night through Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement that a coastal low will form off the Delmarva Peninsula Saturday morning, and could impact Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania with rain and/or snow. A rain/snow mix could be possible Saturday morning, turning to all rain by Saturday afternoon as warmer air from the gulf pushes northwards into the area. At the same time, a short wave will be pushing east into the Ohio Valley from the northern Plains Saturday afternoon, ushering in colder air across the area. There are model differences on the strength of the cold air, but generally expecting a rain/snow mix Sunday, transitioning to snow Sunday night. Another low pressure system will develop across the southern Plains by Monday shifting east into the Tennessee Valley. We will continue to monitor the track of this system for any potential impacts early next week.

It will remain relatively cloudy throughout the period, with only a few breaks in cloud cover possible between systems. The warmest day looks to be Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 40s before colder temperatures arrive Sunday into Monday. Have opted to go with slightly cooler high temperatures than guidance on Sunday in the mid to upper 30s. Given strong cold air advection with precipitation and cloud cover, temperatures will struggle to rise during the day.

AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/. A cold front approaches from the west early this morning and will cross the area from west to east over the next several hours. With the frontal passage, ceilings will vary from low VFR to sub-2000 ft MVFR, although all areas will eventually settle on this lower threshold. Some IFR may be possible with the frontal passage, although ceilings upstream have not shown this and therefore have leaned against any IFR in the current set of TAFs. West winds will be strong with the front as winds gust to 20 to 30 kts this morning. Behind the front, the main concern will then be the development of lake enhanced/effect snow showers. This will mainly be an issue for KERI and KCLE, although the lower clouds will persist in and around KYNG and KCAK. Eventually, dry air and high pressure attempt to build in from the southwest and ceilings will scatter or lift across the area late in the period, while winds diminish to 10 kts or less.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR possible on Wednesday and Thursday with snow showers and low ceilings, especially in the NE OH and NW Snow Belt. Non-VFR possible Friday night with rain/snow and Saturday with all rain.

MARINE. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all nearshore waters today, and continues through Wednesday night from Cleveland eastward. Westerly winds of 15 to 25 knots are expected today, backing to southwest and increasing to 20-35 knots on Wednesday. A Gale Watch has been issued for the open waters off of Pennsylvania and New York with the potential for southwest gales to develop for a few hours during the midday period. Winds will tend to decrease into Wednesday night as they shift onshore with the passage of another cold front. Strong high pressure will build overhead Wednesday night and shifting east on Thursday resulting in improving conditions. Southwesterly winds will develop heading into next weekend, becoming westerly with the passage of a cold front Saturday night.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ146>149. Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for LEZ169. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ142>145.

SYNOPSIS . Sefcovic NEAR TERM . Sefcovic SHORT TERM . KEC LONG TERM . Kahn AVIATION . Sefcovic MARINE . KEC

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH	9 mi	120 min	W 23 G 32	46°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH	27 mi	72 min	W 23 G 28	42°F	40°F		1006 hPa	39°F
EREP1	42 mi	72 min	WSW 12 G 19

Wind History for Fairport, OH

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S16 G20

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SW22 G28

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SW28 G39

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1 day ago

SE8 G11

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S12 G17

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NW7

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W4 G7

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S11 G16

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Ashtabula - Northeast Ohio Regional Airport, OH	9 mi	37 min	W 16 G 25	10.00 mi	Overcast	42°F	36°F	79%	1006.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHZY

Wind History from HZY (wind in knots)

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S10

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W15 G28

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1 day ago

SE9

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S14 G20

S17 G24

S12 G22

S13 G19

S13 G20

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (5,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH

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