Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashtabula, OH

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 051836 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 136 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain across the Midwest today. A weak trough will settle south across the eastern Great Lakes tonight, pulling a weak cold front south across the area. High pressure will expand to the Ohio Valley on Sunday then shift to the southeastern states by Monday allowing a warm front to lift north across the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Made a few adjustments to the placement of PoPs since scattered light snow showers are present across NW PA. Little or no snow accumulation is expected with this activity. Otherwise, no changes were needed with this update.

Previous Discussion .

The near term forecast will remain under the influence of a cool northwest flow on the western periphery of an upper level trough over New England. A piece of energy will rotate westward around the upper trough tonight, pushing a weak cold front south across the eastern Great Lakes. A secondary shortwave originating over Central Canada will dive south across the Great Lakes on Saturday, leading to additional deepening of the upper level trough. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Upper Midwest, with a dry airmass and clear skies persisting across most of Ohio today. The northwest flow will focus some cloud cover from the upstream lakes towards NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania. It will take some time to develop, but we will see an increase in flurries or light snow showers in Pennsylvania this afternoon. Not expecting any accumulation today but an uptick in activity is expected overnight as the trough pivots westward after midnight. Moisture depth remains a limiting factor but we do see a marginal increase up to 6-7K feet late tonight into Saturday. Minor accumulations of generally 1-2 inches are possible for inland Erie County overnight through Saturday with lesser amounts extending into Crawford County. Snow bands are expected to gradually shift towards New York through the day on Saturday. With high pressure oriented towards the Ohio Valley, we occasionally see surface winds back faster than models expect, causing this shift to occur faster. If this does occur then snowfall totals may be reduced.

With lots of sun today, temperatures in NW Ohio will recover several degrees from yesterday and top out near normal. Meanwhile little change from yesterday is expected in eastern portions of the forecast area where the cool airmass remains in place and wind chills are starting out in the single digits in some areas. Low temperatures will dip into the 20s again tonight, with expanding cloud cover having an effect on temperatures in the east. Temperatures will drop back a couple degrees behind the front for on Saturday.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. By Saturday night, vorticity on the backside of the upper-level trough will be working its way southeast across the eastern CWA. Most available model guidance doesn't have any accumulating precipitation during this time period, but most models do have thick low-level cloud cover with some amount of lift from vorticity advection, along with 850 mb temperatures around -15 C. So despite no accumulating precipitation in derived model output, other parameters suggest that it's likely there will be at least some scattered lake enhanced snow showers or flurries late Saturday night and perhaps into early parts of Sunday across northwest Pennsylvania and maybe far northeast Ohio. Will keep a slight chance PoP for now and see how future model forecasts look.

High pressure builds in from the northwest, centered over the region by Sunday. Below normal temperatures expected during the overnight period Saturday night, due to radiational cooling with light winds and decreasing cloud cover (except northwest Pennsylvania). Daytime highs on Sunday may actually reach near normal as mostly sunny skies work to counteract the cool airmass that will accompany the surface high. Initially, it appears that Sunday night would be another cold night but as the high moves off to the east, light southwesterly winds develop, which may be enough to keep low temperatures near normal (or least least only slightly below normal).

By Monday, the beginning of a big pattern change is expected as the surface high moves solidly out of our CWA, centered over the southeast CONUS by Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds will continue through the day, advecting warm air into the region. The entire region will experience above normal temperatures though with still a fairly wide range in high temperatures (upper 50s for northwest Ohio to mid-upper 40s for northwest Pennsylvania).

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Above normal temperatures expected through the entirety of the long term forecast, with the possibility for 60 degree high temperatures, especially by Wednesday and Thursday. Tuesday will probably be the "nicest" day of the week, with only partly cloudy skies and highs ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s.

Precipitation is also forecast in the long term, from Wednesday afternoon onward. This is associated with low pressure that develops over the Great Plains and moves across the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Confidence is very high that there will be several periods of precipitation at points between Wednesday and Friday, though perhaps there is less confidence in the evolution of precipitation, exact time periods, and precipitation amounts. It seems most likely time periods are Wednesday night and Thursday night, though it still remains to be seen. Ensemble guidance is showing the possibility for a good soaking rain through the end of the week with GEFS showing approximately 50% chance for one inch of rain and ENS mean near one inch through the end of the week as well. Would like to seem more run-to-run consistency with placement of QPF before there is concern of flooding chances.

AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/. Expect VFR conditions across most of the region through the TAF period as high pressure builds in from the north. Moisture from Lake Huron combined with lift from a trough stalled over the Lower Great Lakes is producing scattered lake effect snow showers and cloud cover/MVFR ceilings across NW PA. Any snow showers that move over KERI could produce MVFR to possibly IFR visibilities. Ceilings may rise a bit at KERI overnight before a trough swings through the area and the snow chances will increase in NW PA by Saturday morning. MVFR ceilings will be likely at KERI and KYNG after 06Z tonight, but some lower ceilings may creep westward towards KCLE. Decided to omit non- VFR ceilings from the KCLE TAF as of now since it may be more of a scattered cloud deck.

Winds will be out of the west/northwest at 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts to 20 to 25 knots this afternoon, before decreasing to 10 knots or less this evening. Winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots in NE OH/NW PA after daybreak Saturday.

Outlook . Non-VFR conditions possible with snow showers in NW PA through Saturday evening and possibly again on Sunday morning.

MARINE. Northwest winds of 10 to 20 knots continue across Lake Erie through Saturday as surface high pressure very slowly builds into the Great Lakes region, becoming centered over Lake Erie on Sunday. As this high moves off the Atlantic Coast by midweek, southwest to south winds develop over Lake Erie, persisting through the rest of the forecast period. These winds could reach 20 knots by Wednesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . KEC NEAR TERM . KEC/Maines SHORT TERM . Saunders LONG TERM . Saunders AVIATION . Maines MARINE . Saunders

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH	9 mi	55 min	WNW 15 G 20
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH	27 mi	55 min	W 17 G 19	31°F	34°F		1022.2 hPa	20°F
EREP1	42 mi	55 min	W 12 G 16

Wind History for Fairport, OH

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SW14 G17

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Ashtabula - Northeast Ohio Regional Airport, OH	9 mi	32 min	NW 12 G 20	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	29°F	18°F	63%	1022.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHZY

Wind History from HZY (wind in knots)

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NW14 G23

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N12 G19

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NW13 G18

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NW10

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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