Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sharon, CT

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1035 PM EDT...With the loss of daytime heating, any convection has diminished across the region. Radar imagery is showing any showers and thunderstorms have ended across the area. Some heavier downpours occurred earlier in the evening resulting in localized totals of 1-2 inches across parts of Schoharie County and western New England, but all water is receding in these areas. IR satellite imagery shows some stratus clouds have been moving northward from coastal CT and the NYC Metro area. These clouds are starting to expand towards Litchfield and Berkshire County, and will spread towards far eastern New York and southern VT over the next few hours.

With the increasing moisture and low level clouds, expect similar conditions overnight at KPOU as the previous night with areas of low clouds and patchy fog/br likely. Also, areas that received rainfall this aftn, have higher probability of fog/br tonight with light winds. Lows generally in the upper 50s southern Dacks to lower 60s Capital District/Hudson Valley.

For Friday SPC has placed locations mainly along and south of the Mohawk Valley in marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe storms. The pre-storm environment wl feature slightly better deep layer shear in the 20-30 knot range with sfc based CAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg. In addition, better synoptic scale ascent wl arrive via 700 to 500mb s/w energy in the southwest flow aloft. This lift and instability/shear parameters supports increasing areal coverage of convection by early aftn with some stronger storms possible. Primary threat given thermodynamics would be small hail, localized gusty winds, and brief heavy downpours, especially with pw values in the 1.0 to 1.50" range. Highs wl be very similar to today with values in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Friday night is quiet with less fog/mist potential given increasing boundary layer flow of 4 to 8 knots.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Key Messages:

- SPC has increased the marginal to slight risk (level 2 of 5)
of severe thunderstorms Saturday for parts of the area. Some storms may produce damaging winds and/or large hail, along with frequent lightning and localized heavy rainfall.

Discussion: Another active day is anticipated with several rounds of showers and storms likely. SPC has increased the risk to slight (2 out of 5) for severe weather. Synoptic pattern shows approaching mid/upper lvl trof with several embedded 5h vorts rotating acrs our cwa. These strong dynamics wl interact with favorable deep layer shear of 35 to 45 knots and CAPE values of 1200 to 2000 J/kg to produce localized strong to possibly severe storms.
Still some uncertainty on amount of clearing/destabilization behind morning convection, along with timing of aftn/evening energy. The pre- storm environmental conditions suggest strong shear and weak- moderate instability with good dynamics, helping increase the probability of some organized convection. In addition, localized heavy rainfall wl be possible as WPC keeps central/northern cwa in marginal risk of exceeding flash flood guidance. Highs on Saturday in the 70s to near 80F. Lows drop back into the 50s on Saturday night with lowering sfc dwpts on west/northwest winds behind boundary.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Closed mid/upper lvl circulation moves directly overhead on Sunday with diurnal driven showers likely during the late morning into the aftn hours. The greatest concentration of precip/qpf wl be acrs the higher trrn of the southern Dacks/southern Greens and eastern Catskills. Highs wl be much cooler on Sunday with values in the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s. Cyclonic northwest flow and associated cold air advection continues on Monday into Tues with progged 850mb temps approaching 0C. A few lingering showers are possible acrs the favorable upslope areas of the Dacks/southern Greens on Monday with cool highs only in the 60s. Tuesday is quiet with weak high pres nosing into the area, followed by more unsettled wx for mid to late week associated with our next full latitude trof. Still some uncertainty with development and timing of system, but probability of another period of unsettled wx is increasing for mid to late week.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Scattered evening showers should remain mostly west and north of the TAF sites. Low clouds should redevelop from south to north overnight, with widespread MVFR Cigs developing 03Z-06Z/Fri and continuing until 12Z-15Z/Fri. Some areas of IFR/LIFR Cigs will be possible during this time as well, especially between 08Z-11Z/Fri at KPSF/KPOU. Some MVFR/IFR Vsbys may occur overnight at KGFL as well. After morning low clouds lift, mainly VFR conditions are expected, however a broken band of showers/thunderstorms may affect the TAF sites between 18Z-22Z/Fri with brief heavy downpours and some gusty winds.

South to southeast winds will decrease to less than 5 KT overnight, and increase to 5-10 KT by late Friday morning. Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in/near any thunderstorms Friday afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact
Definite SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.