Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elmhurst, IL
March 29, 2024 6:26 AM CDT (11:26 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:36 AM Sunset 7:15 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 8:26 AM |
LMZ741 Expires:202403291545;;802801 Fzus53 Klot 290747 Nshlot
nearshore marine forecast national weather service chicago/romeoville il 247 am cdt Fri mar 29 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz740>742-291545- winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il- wilmette harbor to northerly island il- northerly island to calumet harbor il- 247 am cdt Fri mar 29 2024
Today - Variable at less than 10 kt becoming east early afternoon. Partly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight - East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southeast overnight. Rain showers and chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday night - North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast overnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service chicago/romeoville il 247 am cdt Fri mar 29 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz740>742-291545- winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il- wilmette harbor to northerly island il- northerly island to calumet harbor il- 247 am cdt Fri mar 29 2024
LMZ700
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Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 290737 AFDLOT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 237 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday night into Saturday morning with a level 1 out of 5 threat for damaging hail.
- Another period of showers and thunderstorms is expected Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning especially south of Interstate 80 with level 1 out of 5 threats for damaging hail and flash flooding.
- A third period of showers and thunderstorms may occur on Monday, though exactly where and with what vigor are opportunities for refinement in future forecasts.
- After a brief period of cool weather Tuesday and Wednesday, warming temperatures are expected Thursday and beyond.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Through Saturday Night:
Weak ridging will keep the forecast for much of Friday dry as temperatures steadily increase. Seasonal normal values are expected closer to the lake, but areas west of I-39 and south of I-80 are expected to be in the 60s, which would be 10 to even 15 degrees above normal for late March.
The next short wave trough will move over the region late Friday afternoon, bringing with it the next opportunity for elevated thunderstorms and even the slight chance for some storms to become severe. Forecast soundings are showing a robust inversion around 00Z but much steeper lapse rate aloft driving the expectation for storms to be elevated in nature. MUCAPE values are not overly impressive, but still plenty to work if storms have a chance to tap into it. But with that instability tapping into the colder temperatures aloft, it provides the potential for hail development. The main inhibiting factor Friday night is the meager wind shear in the convective layer.
Though thunderstorms remain the main expectation with increasing chances after 9 PM, the threat of severe storms is more marginal (level 1 out of 5 threat) with the potential for some hail stones around an inch in diameter possible around and west of the I-39 corridor.
Chances for thunderstorms taper off around daybreak Saturday morning as the front moves east, though lingering showers are possible into the early afternoon. Temperatures will once again warm up Saturday afternoon above normal.
DK
Sunday through Thursday:
Sunday into Monday, the upper-level trough currently offshore of California will eject into the central United States leading to periods of inclement weather across the central United States. Not withstanding evolutionary differences in the timing and structure of the low pressure system within the ensemble envelope (owing to opportunities for phasing with upper-level short waves/vort maxes diving south out of Canada), the "big picture" storyline seems fairly stable and reads as follows:
- An elongated stationary front is expected to develop from southern Iowa to southern Ohio on Sunday and serve as a focus for training thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. The exact placement of the front will dictate the highest coverage of thunderstorms, and the latest 100-member ensemble mean currently favors areas south of I-80 and near/along US-24 as being in the center of convective activity. The PoPs in our gridded database may be way too "smeared out" with >80% chances for precipitation appearing way too far north and into southern Wisconsin. In other words, a portion of our forecast area (e.g. north of I-80) may end up dry Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.
- With the overlap of the northern edge of an EML plume, a seasonably strong 100kt+ 250mb jet stream, warm-season like PWATs of 1-1.25", and persistent forcing via low-level isentropic ascent, the strongest storms Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning will produce soaking downpours and marginally damaging hail. Pattern recognition supports a narrow swath of 1-3" of rainfall where convection trains the longest along and just north of the front. The SPC and WPC currently have level 1/5 threat levels for severe weather and flash flooding, respectively, for the activity Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning (again, focused south of Interstate 80).
- Depending on the eventual structure, timing, and track of the surface low, another round of showers and thunderstorms may occur on Monday including the threat for severe weather. The spread in the ensemble envelope for Monday is too vast to say much more beyond that at this point.
- Temperatures Sunday and Monday will vary from north to south, with onshore flow keeping highs in the mid to upper 40s to in northeastern Illinois and near the Wisconsin border, and the upper 50s to around 60 near the stationary front along US-24.
The main message for Sunday and Monday is to stay up to date on the forecast.
Tuesday into Wednesday, a sharp upper-level shortwave is expected to dive into the Great Lakes and phase with the departing surface low to our east. The net result will be a push of seasonably cool air into northern Illinois and northwestern Indiana, with highs possibly struggling to reach 50. Pattern recognition also supports a threat for showers within the aggregate "troughiness" aloft, which may include those of the frozen variety. Toward the end of the week and beyond, ensemble model guidance is showing an unusually strong signal for deep ridging to build into the eastern half of the US, which will support warming temperatures back into the upper 50s to lower 60s, if not warmer.
Borchardt
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Thanks to a passing surface high pressure system, light and variable winds will continue through daybreak. Thereafter, winds will become easterly and gradually increase in magnitude (to 8 to 12kt) as a surface low pressure system approaches from the west. After dark, increasing low-level confluence along the nose of an intensifying LLJ on the eastern side of the aforementioned approaching system is expected to activate a pocket of steepening lapse rates, leading to a relatively prolonged period (6+ hours) of scattered showers and thunderstorms. With HRRR neighborhood probabilities for thunder peaking from 60 to 80% generally between 04-10Z across the general area, opted to introduce targeted TEMPO groups for TSRA at RFD/ORD/MDW (04-06Z at RFD, 06-10Z at ORD/MDW) in the outgoing TAF package. Targeted TEMPO groups for TSRA will be introduced at DPA/GYY in the upcoming 12Z TAF package.
Cigs are expected to remain VFR through the entire TAF period.
Borchardt
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 237 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday night into Saturday morning with a level 1 out of 5 threat for damaging hail.
- Another period of showers and thunderstorms is expected Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning especially south of Interstate 80 with level 1 out of 5 threats for damaging hail and flash flooding.
- A third period of showers and thunderstorms may occur on Monday, though exactly where and with what vigor are opportunities for refinement in future forecasts.
- After a brief period of cool weather Tuesday and Wednesday, warming temperatures are expected Thursday and beyond.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Through Saturday Night:
Weak ridging will keep the forecast for much of Friday dry as temperatures steadily increase. Seasonal normal values are expected closer to the lake, but areas west of I-39 and south of I-80 are expected to be in the 60s, which would be 10 to even 15 degrees above normal for late March.
The next short wave trough will move over the region late Friday afternoon, bringing with it the next opportunity for elevated thunderstorms and even the slight chance for some storms to become severe. Forecast soundings are showing a robust inversion around 00Z but much steeper lapse rate aloft driving the expectation for storms to be elevated in nature. MUCAPE values are not overly impressive, but still plenty to work if storms have a chance to tap into it. But with that instability tapping into the colder temperatures aloft, it provides the potential for hail development. The main inhibiting factor Friday night is the meager wind shear in the convective layer.
Though thunderstorms remain the main expectation with increasing chances after 9 PM, the threat of severe storms is more marginal (level 1 out of 5 threat) with the potential for some hail stones around an inch in diameter possible around and west of the I-39 corridor.
Chances for thunderstorms taper off around daybreak Saturday morning as the front moves east, though lingering showers are possible into the early afternoon. Temperatures will once again warm up Saturday afternoon above normal.
DK
Sunday through Thursday:
Sunday into Monday, the upper-level trough currently offshore of California will eject into the central United States leading to periods of inclement weather across the central United States. Not withstanding evolutionary differences in the timing and structure of the low pressure system within the ensemble envelope (owing to opportunities for phasing with upper-level short waves/vort maxes diving south out of Canada), the "big picture" storyline seems fairly stable and reads as follows:
- An elongated stationary front is expected to develop from southern Iowa to southern Ohio on Sunday and serve as a focus for training thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. The exact placement of the front will dictate the highest coverage of thunderstorms, and the latest 100-member ensemble mean currently favors areas south of I-80 and near/along US-24 as being in the center of convective activity. The PoPs in our gridded database may be way too "smeared out" with >80% chances for precipitation appearing way too far north and into southern Wisconsin. In other words, a portion of our forecast area (e.g. north of I-80) may end up dry Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning.
- With the overlap of the northern edge of an EML plume, a seasonably strong 100kt+ 250mb jet stream, warm-season like PWATs of 1-1.25", and persistent forcing via low-level isentropic ascent, the strongest storms Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning will produce soaking downpours and marginally damaging hail. Pattern recognition supports a narrow swath of 1-3" of rainfall where convection trains the longest along and just north of the front. The SPC and WPC currently have level 1/5 threat levels for severe weather and flash flooding, respectively, for the activity Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning (again, focused south of Interstate 80).
- Depending on the eventual structure, timing, and track of the surface low, another round of showers and thunderstorms may occur on Monday including the threat for severe weather. The spread in the ensemble envelope for Monday is too vast to say much more beyond that at this point.
- Temperatures Sunday and Monday will vary from north to south, with onshore flow keeping highs in the mid to upper 40s to in northeastern Illinois and near the Wisconsin border, and the upper 50s to around 60 near the stationary front along US-24.
The main message for Sunday and Monday is to stay up to date on the forecast.
Tuesday into Wednesday, a sharp upper-level shortwave is expected to dive into the Great Lakes and phase with the departing surface low to our east. The net result will be a push of seasonably cool air into northern Illinois and northwestern Indiana, with highs possibly struggling to reach 50. Pattern recognition also supports a threat for showers within the aggregate "troughiness" aloft, which may include those of the frozen variety. Toward the end of the week and beyond, ensemble model guidance is showing an unusually strong signal for deep ridging to build into the eastern half of the US, which will support warming temperatures back into the upper 50s to lower 60s, if not warmer.
Borchardt
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Thanks to a passing surface high pressure system, light and variable winds will continue through daybreak. Thereafter, winds will become easterly and gradually increase in magnitude (to 8 to 12kt) as a surface low pressure system approaches from the west. After dark, increasing low-level confluence along the nose of an intensifying LLJ on the eastern side of the aforementioned approaching system is expected to activate a pocket of steepening lapse rates, leading to a relatively prolonged period (6+ hours) of scattered showers and thunderstorms. With HRRR neighborhood probabilities for thunder peaking from 60 to 80% generally between 04-10Z across the general area, opted to introduce targeted TEMPO groups for TSRA at RFD/ORD/MDW (04-06Z at RFD, 06-10Z at ORD/MDW) in the outgoing TAF package. Targeted TEMPO groups for TSRA will be introduced at DPA/GYY in the upcoming 12Z TAF package.
Cigs are expected to remain VFR through the entire TAF period.
Borchardt
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
OKSI2 | 17 mi | 146 min | NNE 7G | 41°F | ||||
CNII2 | 18 mi | 26 min | NNE 6G | 37°F | 28°F | |||
CHII2 - Chicago, IL | 20 mi | 36 min | NNE 9.9G | 40°F | 33°F | |||
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL | 24 mi | 56 min | N 11G | 38°F | 30.03 | 29°F | ||
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL | 33 mi | 86 min | NW 2.9G | 34°F | ||||
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN | 45 mi | 46 min | N 2.9G | 39°F | 30.07 | |||
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI | 49 mi | 86 min | WNW 1.9G | 33°F | 30.07 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KORD CHICAGO O'HARE INTL,IL | 6 sm | 35 min | N 03 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 34°F | 19°F | 55% | 30.06 | |
KMDW CHICAGO MIDWAY INTL,IL | 12 sm | 33 min | N 05 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 37°F | 21°F | 52% | 30.06 | |
KPWK CHICAGO EXECUTIVE,IL | 15 sm | 34 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 30°F | 21°F | 69% | 30.08 | |
KDPA DUPAGE,IL | 16 sm | 34 min | NNW 03 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 32°F | 21°F | 64% | 30.06 | |
KLOT LEWIS UNIVERSITY,IL | 21 sm | 41 min | N 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 34°F | 25°F | 69% | 30.08 |
Chicago, IL,
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