Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elmhurst, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 7:42PM Thursday April 22, 2021 10:18 AM CDT (15:18 UTC) Moonrise 2:22PMMoonset 3:59AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:202104222115;;948031 Fzus53 Klot 221412 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 912 Am Cdt Thu Apr 22 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-222115- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 912 Am Cdt Thu Apr 22 2021
Rest of today..West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south-southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Sunny. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Friday..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Slight chance of showers early in the evening, then chance of rain in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elmhurst, IL
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location: 41.89, -87.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 221059 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 559 AM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021

SHORT TERM. 300 AM CDT

Today through Friday .

Early morning surface analysis shows freezing or sub-freezing temperatures across most of the forecast area, save for the core of the Chicago urban area and a few spots where patchy cloud cover has held readings up just above the freezing mark. Would expect those locales outside of the City of Chicago to reach the freezing mark prior to sunrise however, and the Freeze Warning will remain in effect until its 9 AM expiration this morning.

Looking aloft, GOES water vapor imagery depicts a positive-tilt mid- level short wave propagating east-southeastward across the upper Mississippi and western Great Lakes region. Ascent with this wave was producing some patchy cloud cover, with spotty 15-20 dBZ radar returns. Not seeing any observations of precip (would be light snow or flurries based on sounding profiles) upstream with these returns, likely due to the relatively shallow nature of the moist layer and very dry sub-cloud base air - though a few isolated flurries can't be ruled out as this disturbance continues to track southeast early this morning.

By later this morning, the short wave will be moving off to the east and southeast of the forecast area, with strong subsidence developing as short-wave mid level ridging builds in from the west. Subsidence and drying in the mid-levels will support sunny skies, with only some flat high-based diurnal cumulus expected this afternoon. While the mid-level ridge builds into the region, the center of the associated surface high pressure will pass well to the south of the cwa across the lower Ohio Valley. A somewhat tight pressure gradient will exist north of the surface high, providing breezy west winds gusting around 25 mph at times for the forecast area. Sunshine, moderating temps aloft, deep mixing and breezy conditions should support temps rebounding to the mid-upper 50s across the area, and should limit any lake cooling to the immediate Lake Michigan shore.

Decreasing winds and mostly clear skies with sunset should allow temps to drop of fairly quickly this evening in our dry air mass. Overnight lows are expected to settle into the mid-upper 30s in some of the cooler spots, with areas especially east of I-57 across east central IL into northwest IN most likely to potentially see some patchy frost. High clouds will increase from the southwest after midnight however, and this and light southwest winds will likely help to limit the coverage of frost.

A mid-level short wave trough is progged to ripple east from the Plains and into the western Lakes region late tonight and Friday, deamplifying as it transits the upper ridge over the region. The main impact from this disturbance will be increasing mid and high level cloud cover tonight, along with a gradual increase in low level moisture and warm advection within induced south-southwest flow downstream of another short wave which will be across the central and southern Plains by Friday afternoon. Most model guidance has trended a little quicker with the potential for some light rain or showers working into the forecast area within this axis of moisture advection Friday, though the typically reliable ECMWF is notably slower and drier than much of the other available model guidance. Have maintained a slight chance mention for our far western cwa Friday morning, and kept pops generally lower than our domestic guidance suite would suggest for Friday afternoon while spreading some chance pops farther east. Despite persistent warm advection on southwest flow, temps look to be similar on Friday as they are today, though with the cooler mid-50s across our western cwa where cloud cover will be thicker and precip chances higher. Breezy southwest flow should again limit any lake cooling to the immediate lake shore, with highs in the upper 50s expected across our eastern counties.

Ratzer

LONG TERM. 300 AM CDT

Friday night through Wednesday .

Friday night through Saturday morning: Several waves originating from the southwestern states, northern Mexico and the central Great Plains will phase, in some form, both constructively and destructively over the central CONUS on Friday. The lead wave tracking from SD/NE will be in a weakening phase as it lifts across the far northern Great Lakes Friday evening. Somewhat concentrated low-level isentropic ascent shifting northeast into the area Friday afternoon will continue to affect primarily the southern 2/3, but especially locations closer to central Illinois, with light to briefly moderate rain through the evening hours.

The cluster of the remaining waves will then induce a disjointed surface tough across the middle and lower Mississippi River Valley late Friday night. Guidance remains mixed on how far north the associated rain, possibly moderate to briefly heavy, will spread late Friday night into early Saturday afternoon. Substantial convection developing over the Lower MS Valley may limit intensity this far north, but deep isentropic ascent and moisture transport through the lower half of the troposphere under the right entrance of a 140kt 250 hPa jet streak and in association with PWATs increasing to near 1" support the rain shield expanding well north into northern Illinois. While precip amounts remain unclear, odds are favoring a wet start to the weekend including raw conditions with temps struggling to reach 50 along the Lake Michigan shore.

Saturday afternoon and night: While the main precip shield should exit eastward during the afternoon, scattered light rain showers will linger into the evening until the mid-level trough clears the area. Winds will likely remain high enough to limit cooling through the night, but clearing over the area combined with high surface high pressure building toward the MS river supports temps low enough for patchy frost over north-central Illinois.

Sunday through Wednesday: A significant warmup is then expected Sunday through Tuesday as rather pronounced mid-level ridging builds well into the Great Lakes region. 850 hPa temps of 15C supports max temps into the low 80s area-wide by Tuesday afternoon. Conditions should remain dry Sunday through Tuesday, though some WAA-forced precip on the nose of a LLJ will pass just northwest of the CWA Sunday evening. A western CONUS trough will shift into the central Plains on Tuesday, leading to increasing chances of convection reaching the CWA sometime Tuesday evening into Wednesday, with the potential for locally heavy rain given an extended feed of Gulf of Mexico moisture northward into the area over the preceding few days.

Kluber

AVIATION. For the 12Z TAFs .

VFR conditions are expected through the period. SCT to BKN mid- level clouds will filter over the the terminals through the period. Isolated -SHSN aloft this morning will sublimate before reaching the ground, but a few stray flurries cannot be ruled out. W winds under 10 knots or less at TAF issuance will increase this morning, with gusts in excess of 20 knots during the afternoon and early evening. Expect SW winds around 10 knots to then continue through tonight with the possibility of some gusts in excess of 15 knots at ORD/MDW. Winds will increase again by mid- morning Friday with SSW gusts to 20 knots.

Kluber

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . Freeze Warning . ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010- ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032- ILZ033-ILZ039-ILZ103-ILZ104-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108 until 9 AM Thursday.

IN . Freeze Warning . INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 until 9 AM Thursday.

LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 17 mi139 min 32°F
OKSI2 17 mi139 min N 6 G 8.9 42°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 20 mi59 min WNW 5.1 G 6 40°F 21°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 24 mi79 min WNW 5.1 G 8.9 1019.8 hPa (+1.2)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 33 mi139 min WNW 5.1 G 7 37°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 45 mi99 min NW 5.1 G 7 40°F 1020.7 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 49 mi79 min WNW 5.1 G 9.9 40°F 1019.6 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL7 mi28 minW 12 G 1810.00 miA Few Clouds44°F20°F38%1020.4 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL12 mi26 minW 10 G 2110.00 miA Few Clouds45°F19°F35%1021.2 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL15 mi27 minW 910.00 miFair45°F21°F39%1020.9 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL17 mi27 minWSW 10 G 1710.00 miFair45°F23°F42%1020.6 hPa
Lewis University Airport, IL21 mi44 minW 810.00 miFair42°F26°F53%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KORD

Wind History from ORD (wind in knots)
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NE9NE8E6SE4E3S4NE4CalmCalmCalmW6W5W5W4W7W5W12
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1 day agoCalmE4N4NW5E5NE7E9E5E6E6E5S3S3SW3SW4SW5SW4SW3S5SW7S5W4W4W8
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2 days agoW12
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NW10NW12W7NW11NW10N12NW8NW9NW9N9N9NW10N8N9N7N5E5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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