Friday, April3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hornbrook, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 7:40PM Friday April 3, 2020 1:01 AM PDT (08:01 UTC) Moonrise 1:24PMMoonset 3:33AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 832 Pm Pdt Thu Apr 2 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..North winds will diminish tonight as offshore high pressure weakens. A deepening low will approach the coast Friday night and move onshore near cape blanco Saturday night. It will push a front onshore late Friday night into Saturday. This will produce gusty south winds and steep seas over the area. Winds and seas will diminish Sunday, but the weather will be generally unsettled with showers. Northwest swell will increase Monday. A thermal trough will develop Tuesday, and this will bring gusty north winds and steep seas to the area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hornbrook, CA
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location: 41.9, -122.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 030413 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 913 PM PDT Thu Apr 2 2020

DISCUSSION. The forecast has been updated to reflect a lingering slight chance of light showers overnight in western and northern Douglas County, eastward across northern portions of Klamath and Lake Counties. Low temperatures on Friday morning are expected to be similar to those of this past morning . below freezing for all of the area but the coast and portions of the Umpqua Valley. As a result, Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings have been issued for the lower elevations of southwest Oregon. The day-time hours of Friday will also be similar to today, though with generally a few degrees of warming ahead of a warm front.

The focus for adjustments with the next regular issuance of the forecast will be on the amount of precipitation and snow levels between Saturday and Monday. The first of two troughs is expected to sweep across southern Oregon on Saturday, followed closely by another that will approach our coast early Sunday then continue southward down the California coast with wrap around showers continuing through Monday.

Forecast uncertainty increases for the remainder of the week. With the differences regarding how far southward in California that the low traverses before tracking eastward, and how quickly it does move east. The ECMWF lingers the low longer and closer to our area for a chance of wrap around showers, mainly for California. While, the 00Z GFS and the 12Z GEFS suggest warmer and drier conditions are likely to follow Tuesday and for most or all of the remainder of next week. Historically, the bias would be to favor the slower ECMWF solution. So, a slight chance to chance of showers is included in our forecast for Siskiyou and Modoc Counties through mid-week. We will wait for the new 00Z ECMWF data before making any adjustments.

AVIATION. For the 03/00Z TAF Cycle . VFR conditions will prevail through this evening with isolated showers from the Cascades west. Most areas will remain VFR through Friday evening, except for areas of late night through mid-morning MVFR/IFR cigs in low clouds over the west side valleys.

MARINE. Updated 800 PM PDT Thursday 2 April 2020 . North winds will diminish tonight as offshore high pressure weakens. A deepening low will approach the coast Friday night and move onshore near Cape Blanco Saturday night. It will push a front onshore late Friday night into Saturday. This will produce gusty south winds and steep seas over the area. Winds and seas will diminish Sunday, but the weather will be generally unsettled with showers. Northwest swell will increase Monday. A thermal trough will develop Tuesday, and this will bring gusty north winds and steep seas to the area.

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 239 PM PDT Thu Apr 2 2020/

DISCUSSION . The latest visible image shows most of the cloud cover along the north coast, and north of the Umpqua Divide and more scattered elsewhere. A weak shortwave embedded in the northwest flow could trigger isolated showers into this evening mainly north of the Umpqua Divide and north coast. The latest radar image is already showing isolated showers in northwest Douglas and Coos County.

The shortwave will move southeast through the region tonight and any isolated showers will diminish early this evening with dry conditions tonight. The main question will be the amount of clearing. This is especially the coast along the coast and north of the Umpqua Divide. Should clouds dissipate enough later this evening and tonight, then temperatures will drop near or below freezing in portions of the Umpqua Basin and north coast. However if there's more cloud cover, then temperatures in the above mentioned areas could end up above freezing. However were going to lean on the side of caution and have a frost advisory and Freeze warning for portions of Douglas County and a Frost Advisory for portions of Coos and Curry County.

Confidence is higher that we'll have near freezing temperatures in portions of Curry County and below freezing temperatures for the valleys in Josephine and Jackson County and a Freeze warning has been issued. For details, please see NPWMFR.

Friday looks dry for most locations. Could not rule out isolated showers in northwest Douglas and northern Coos county, but odds are nothing will happen in these areas. Temperatures will end up milder for most locations away from the coast in the afternoon.

It's pretty much a slam dunk the weekend will be cooler an unsettled. Details follow below.

Low pressure system is on track to arrive late Friday night into Saturday morning. The operational models are fairly good agreement with the timing and location of heaviest precipitation which will be in southwest Oregon and northwest California. Precipitation is not expected to reach Siskiyou Summit until early Friday morning, so any road snow could be limited to an inch or so by daybreak Saturday, then the concern for road snow should be low due to a stronger April sun (despite cloud cover) allowing roads temperatures to warm up sufficiently. However could not rule out roadside slush at times during the day in heavier precipitation, especially on ramps and bridges.

The surface low and associated upper trough will move into the area Saturday with precipitation just about everywhere. However the highest QPF amounts will be over the coastal mountains in southwest Oregon, western Siskiyou County and Mount Shasta area. Snow levels Saturday are expected to be between 4000 and 4500 feet, but with a stronger early April sun, road snow concerns should be low and most of the time roads will be wet.

The upper trough moves east of the area Saturday night, but any break in precipitation will be brief, if at all as another and stronger upper low will be on the heals of the upper trough and will be just off the the Oregon/California coast early Sunday morning. Snow levels are expected to drop down between 3500 and 4000 feet which should provide a window of opportunity for some slick spots during that time period on Interstate 5 over Siskiyou Summit, in the mountains, and across the east side. Once it becomes daylight, the threat for road snow will be diminished and could end up wet most hours once again.

The upper low will be a slow mover and will linger around the rest of Sunday through Sunday night, then slowly move south of our area Monday. There's pretty good agreement the upper low will be slower to move south, so we could be dealing with scattered precipitation most locations during the day. Monday night, precipitation will generally decrease from north to south.

After Monday, it should remain dry for most locations Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. However, the ECMWF is slower to move the upper low out of our area, so we'll have to be on the lookout for showers wrapping around the upper low in northern California on these days. Right now, Friday looks dry. Note: several of the individual ensemble members point to a dry solution for Oregon and northern California Wednesday-Friday. -Petrucelli

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for ORZ021-022. Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for ORZ023. Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT Friday for ORZ023. Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT Friday for ORZ024-026.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

DW/JRS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 86 mi43 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 40°F 53°F1023.9 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 96 mi21 min NNW 18 G 21 48°F 51°F1024.5 hPa38°F

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montague Siskiyou County Airport, CA9 mi68 minN 810.00 miFair36°F24°F62%1022.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSIY

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Last 24hrS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW34W4SE3W33--3----N14N12N9N9N11N8NE7
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Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California (2) (expired 1989-12-31)
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:01 AM PDT     3.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:38 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:55 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:49 AM PDT     6.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:30 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:00 PM PDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:45 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:49 PM PDT     5.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.53.33.544.75.466.15.84.93.72.31.10.2-0.10.212.23.54.65.35.55.2

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:01 AM PDT     3.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:38 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:55 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:48 AM PDT     6.12 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:30 PM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:01 PM PDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:45 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:50 PM PDT     5.47 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.53.33.544.75.466.15.84.93.72.31.10.2-0.10.212.23.54.65.35.55.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.