Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 7:09 PM   Moonset 5:02 AM

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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013.thunderstorms over the waters - . Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible - .keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat - .lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414

PZZ300 831 Pm Pdt Mon Apr 22 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - Moderate north winds and steep to very steep wind driven seas will continue tonight. The strongest winds and steepest seas will be beyond 10 nm from shore and south of cape blanco. Winds will gradually ease through Tuesday, but seas will remain steep and hazardous to small craft. A southerly surge of stratus could reach up to around gold beach late Tuesday morning. Conditions improve Tuesday night into Wednesday, but a series of fronts will bring unsettled weather late this week.

FXUS66 KMFR 230531 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1030 PM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Updated AVIATION Section

DISCUSSION
Satellite imagery is showing some higher clouds across southern Oregon and northern California this evening. This is ahead of the next system which will cause a subtle shift in the weather beginning tomorrow with the threat of showers and thunderstorms for portions of northern California and the East Side of Oregon. Overall, the forecast is reasonably on track.
Please read the previous discussion for more details. -Schaaf

AVIATION
23/06Z TAFs...Other than some high clouds, conditions remain VFR area wide late this evening. This will continue overnight into Tuesday for most areas.

Hi-res models/soundings are showing a southerly surge of stratus/lower ceilings and also some fog reaching the SW coast, including Brookings ~12z, then up to around Gold Beach (Port Orford?) by around 18z Tuesday morning. This could result in coastal IFR/LIFR and also over the marine waters off Pt. St. George out to about 30 NM from shore. Soundings also show a low-level moist layer pushing into the Coquille Basin/North Bend area Tuesday morning (around 14z), so have maintained a few hours of IFR ceiling in KOTH, though confidence in this occurring is low to moderate.

Inland, Tuesday remains VFR, though cumulus buildups are expected to develop in the afternoon/evening roughly south and east of a line from the Oregon Siskiyou Mountains to Lake of the Woods (probably southeast of Medford) to Winter Rim. In these areas, there can be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highest thunder probabilities (25-40%) are in NorCal. And, given a very dry sub- cloud layer, some stronger cells could produce gusty winds.

IFR/MVFR ceilings may return to the coast Tuesday evening. -Spilde



MARINE
Updated 830 PM Monday, April 22, 2024...A thermal trough will maintain moderate north winds and steep to very steep wind driven seas tonight. The strongest winds and steepest seas are expected beyond 10 NM and south of Cape Blanco. The thermal trough will weaken and winds will gradually ease through Tuesday, but seas will remain steep and hazardous to small craft. A southerly surge of stratus (with potential for lower visibilities) could reach up to around Gold Beach late Tuesday morning. Conditions improve Tuesday night into Wednesday, but a series of fronts will bring unsettled weather late this week. -Spilde



PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 519 PM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024/

DISCUSSION...Aside from some high level cirrus clouds streaming over the region, skies are clear across the area this afternoon and temperatures are running about 5 degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Gusty north winds have kicked in along the coast due to a thermal trough. This thermal trough has induced east to northeasterly flow and is resulting the Chetco Effect, which is bringing warm temperatures to Brookings. It's currently 78 degrees in Brookings, which is warmer than the Medford Airport where it's currently 66 degrees! Overall, it'll be a tranquil spring afternoon for the area, though high temperatures this afternoon will make it feel more like late June than late April -- upper 70s West Side and upper 60s/low 70s East Side. Dry conditions will continue across the region today before a subtle shift in the weather occurs Tuesday and Wednesday, and a more notable change in the pattern occurs for the latter half of the week and into next weekend.

Tuesday into Wednesday, the upper level pattern will transition with low pressure developing out near 130 W west of the California coast and low pressure pushing toward the British Columbia Coast. This will put our region in southwest flow and some mid level moisture will move into the area. This combined with some model indicated instability (-2 to -4 LIs, 300-500 J/kg CAPE) is boosting confidence in thunderstorm potential for Tuesday and Wednesday. Right now, Tuesday looks to be the bigger day in terms of thunderstorm coverage. The best chances (40%-70%) look to be over western Siskiyou County and Modoc County with some potential (20%-40%)
extending into the southern portions of Jackson/Klamath/Lake Counties. Storm motion will be from the southwest, but current thinking is that any storms that develop over the Siskiyous would likely stay stuck on the terrain and not really drift into the Rogue Valley...though it's not out of the question (10% chance) a storm skates by Ashland Tuesday afternoon. The focus for storms on Wednesday shifts a bit farther east on Wednesday over eastern Siskiyou, Modoc and southern Lake Counties and the trigger looks weaker for Wednesday, so thunderstorm coverage looks less overall.
For the remainder of the area, conditions will remain dry, though expect an uptick in afternoon winds and cloud cover with temperatures trending cooler.

The pattern turns cooler and wetter as we head into the extended period. /BR-y

Extended Discussion (Thursday through Monday)...Generally it will be cool and unsettled during the forecast period. A stronger front will approach the coast Thursday morning, then moving inland during the day. The bulk of the precipitation will be along the coast, coastal mountains, Cascades and north of the Umpqua Divide. The front will move east of the Cascades Thursday afternoon with precipitation becoming scattered. Snow levels will also lower to around 5500 feet along the Cascades late Thursday afternoon and hover around that elevation Thursday night. This in combination with a higher mid-late April sun angle, will put a cap on snow concerns due to warm road surface temperatures, and should be mainly confined to Crater Lake and Diamond Lake areas Thursday night.

Upper troughing remain over the area Friday, although the upper trough axis will shift east late Friday afternoon and we could see showers gradually diminish in coverage.

The operational ECMWF and GFs show different solutions Saturday with the GFS showing more ridging and a relative break in the action. The ECMWF brings another upper trough and front into the area Saturday morning. No surprise the majority of the respective ensemble members also show varying solutions. Even taking the operational GFS at face value the ridding is weak and with a weak upper trough just offshore, but still hints at a progressive pattern. Therefore we'll keep showers and cool afternoon temperatures in the forecast.

Upper troughiness remains over our area Sunday through Monday, and possibly through the middle of next week which will result in cooler temperatures and high chance for showers over a good portion of the forecast area. -Petrucelli

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ376.

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Crescent City
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Tue -- 06:09 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:19 AM PDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:38 PM PDT     5.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM PDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 06:05 PM PDT     1.93 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:07 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:15 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California (2) (expired 1989-12-31), Tide feet

Crescent City
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Tue -- 06:09 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:20 AM PDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:39 PM PDT     5.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM PDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 06:06 PM PDT     1.90 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:07 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:15 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California, Tide feet

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