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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Monroe, MI

April 26, 2025 1:26 AM EDT (05:26 UTC)
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Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM
Moonrise 4:44 AM   Moonset 6:25 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
   
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NOTE: Zones were updated 3/20/2025
LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017

Rest of tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.

Sunday - Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning - .then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.

Sunday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening - .then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.

Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
the water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ400
No data

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Monroe, MI
   
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Area Discussion for Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 260349 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1149 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and scattered thunderstorms expanding in coverage this afternoon and evening.

- Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is the primary but an isolated thunderstorms may be marginally severe in the afternoon.

- High pressure this weekend brings dry conditions. Cool Saturday before returning to near normal Sunday.

- Temperatures back into the 70s on Monday before another cold front arrives on Tuesday, which will bring renewed chances for thunderstorms.

AVIATION

Shallow cold advection in the wake of a cold front will bring a lowering inversion and a likelihood for MVFR stratus tonight. There does remain a potential for IFR cigs with some chance at reduced visibilities in light br, however, forecast soundings have trended more optimistic. Confidence is low on fog with a lack of clearing.
MVFR conditions at daybreak are expected to transition to VFR ceilings for Saturday afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 ft tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 338 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

DISCUSSION...

A pair of longwave troughs will impact the region the rest of today through tonight. The first trough of note is a weaker southern stream trough with very little jet support, but several weak shortwave embedded within it. The stronger trough is lagging a bit to the west dropping into the Midwest this afternoon before strengthening and becoming more closed off while passing over Lake Huron Saturday afternoon.

The leading southern stream trough complex will lift through SE MI this afternoon/evening bringing the chance showers and thunderstorms to the area. We were able to clear out most of the clouds for a good chunk of the day helping to destabilize the boundary layer a bit. In addition, a stalled frontal boundary lifted north of the state line from and is draped along the I69 corridor which allowed mid 70s to surge northward through the region with dewpoints into the mid 50s.
deeper moisture will lift north over the next few hours as low pressure tries to come together along the front with dewpoints rising into the low 60s. In addition, PWATs are expected to rise to around 1.25 inches so moisture will be ample for storm/shower development and heavy rain. CAPE values per SPC Meso Analysis has already climbed to around 1500 J/kg south of M59 and 1000 up to Port Huron. Low level lapse rates will become strong but mid level lapse rates are weak, as is overall shear profile. Without stronger upper level or low level jet support, shear will struggle to help organize storms. You have to get up to around 20kft to get winds over 30 knots. Models are advertising a brief window this evening where the low level convergence of the surface front and the deformation of the surface low come together over the Irish Hills helping to enhance the storms coverage and intensity before the low peals off to the east pulling the cluster of storms eastward through St Clair, Macomb, and Wayne Counties. Main threat with these storms will be heavy rainfall with storm motions around 20 knots and slow movement to the cluster as it pivots around the low so we remain in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall from the WPC. Gusts look to largely remain in the 40-50 mph range but can't rule out a stray gust to 60 mph. Trough pushes east of the region between 00-03Z which will end the threat of storms.

Second northern stream trough then pushes through the region tonight into Saturday. A cold front will push through Saturday morning with pretty good cold advection behind it with 850mb temps down to -3C behind it. Northerly cold flow through the day will help limit max Ts to the 50s. Model soundings mix up to around 4kft which will tap into winds of 25-30 knots so should be a gusty afternoon. Precip on the trailing trough may stay north of the area during the day, but could also brush southward into the Thumb producing light rain. Will lean dry with this forecast with high pressure actively building across the Great Lakes.

High pressure then holds across the region Sunday and Monday with a warming trend back into the 60s Sunday and 70s Monday as ridging amplifies over the eastern conus. Attention in the long term remains on Tuesday as the next cold front sweeps through the region presenting the next chance of strong to severe storms.

MARINE...

A low pressure system lifts through Lower Michigan today offering opportunities for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening within the system's warm sector. Localized higher winds and waves are possible with any isolated strong to severe storms that move through. Relatively light non-convective winds back with time before strengthening from northern Lake Huron down to the southern waterways, tied to the progression of the system's cold front tonight. Cold advection and northwest flow promote an uptick in gradient winds, into the 15 to 20 knot range early Saturday which results in increased wave action along the southern Huron nearshores. As such, the Small Craft Advisory will remain in place.
It has been expanded to include Inner Saginaw Bay given sufficiently steep low-level lapse rates mixing down 25-30 knot winds from between 2-4 kft AWL. The surface low then spins into the eastern Great Lakes Saturday while the back edge of the system lingers over the Huron basin. It will take some time for the gradient to relax as high pressure builds in, eventually leading to weaker and more variable winds. A much more potent low pressure system organizes out west Monday into Tuesday featuring a pre-frontal warm sector with gusty winds, followed by a strong cold front. Expect a period of thunderstorms and gusts in excess of 30 knots.

HYDROLOGY...

Increasing daytime instability and surface low pressure arriving this afternoon will support showers and scattered thunderstorms, as PW values rise aoa 1.25 inches. Increased coverage of shower and storm potential will be possible into the evening hours. Although basin average rainfall is generally expected to be a half an inch or less, slower storm motions along with the potential for heavy downpours will bring the highly localized rainfall totals of 1.0- 1.50 inches or higher in a short period. Highly localized flooding in low-lying and/or flood prone locations will be possible.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ421-441.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ422-442-443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 13 mi86 minW 7G7 29.83
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 15 mi56 minWNW 6G8 63°F 29.8062°F
TWCO1 16 mi37 min 62°F 61°F
CMPO1 32 mi116 min0G1
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 36 mi86 minW 6G7 62°F 29.83
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 44 mi56 minW 4.1G6 62°F 54°F29.8058°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 49 mi86 minNE 2.9G5.1 57°F 29.86


Wind History for Toledo, OH
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