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LEZ041 Expires:202311280415;;506390 Fzus51 Kbuf 272044 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 344 pm est Mon nov 27 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-280415- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 344 pm est Mon nov 27 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late Tuesday night...
Tonight..West winds to 30 knots. Lake effect snow and lake effect rain early, then lake effect rain showers and lake effect snow with some rumbles of Thunder possible. Lake effect snow showers with some rumbles of Thunder possible late. Waves 7 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Tuesday..West winds to 30 knots. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Snow showers likely in the evening, then snow showers, rain showers likely with scattered Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely with scattered Thunderstorms in the morning, then rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely Thursday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Rain during the day, then a chance of rain showers Friday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KCTP 280557 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1257 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
A long wave trough will move east across Central PA on Tuesday.
A quiet period of weather will follow for Wednesday and Thursday along with daytime high temperatures warming by 15 to 20 degrees between Tuesday and Thursday. The next storm system moves out of the Southern Plains states and spreads rain across much of Central and Southern PA very late Thursday night through Friday. Rain or mixed precipitation is expected across the Northern Mountains during this same periods.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/
Main adjustment for this evening update was to delay timing of the onset of heavy Lake Effect snow across our NW Counties where a LES Warning (Warren Cty) and Wint Weather Advis (McKean County) is in effect until 1 AM Wed.

BUFKIT display of the NAM with a mean wind within the sfc-875 mb layer has depicted very well, the location and movement of the single, intense and nearly shoreline parallel LES band from just north of KERI to the southern suburbs of Buffalo.

This guidance (in contrast to the much further south HRRR) shows the band drifting gradually south through late this evening and entering the region near and to the north of Route 6 by shortly after midnight, as the aforementioned mean layer mean wind becomes more westerly.

Elsewhere, deepening cold air with the upper portion of the thick strato cu cloud layer dipping into the dendritic growth zone will promote an trend toward increasing coverage of light to briefly moderate snow showers.

Previous Disc...
Large band of SHSN is still to the N of the state, but should begin to inch southward this evening as the mean llvl flow veers very slightly to 270
Meanwhile
Broader lift helped along by the orographic influences of the Alleghenies and Laurels is still generating some flurries or very light SHSN. As the axis of a long wave trough approaches, lift will get a little stronger. Just enough additional lift will likely make a dusting of an accum in the Laurels. The enhancement has a 50% chance of making a dusting this evening in Happy Valley and along I-80 west of Loganton. A flurry is a possibility east of these towns, but no expecting any accums there overnight.

SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
Lake effect snow bands are expected to continue veering and reach into more of our northwest counties early tonight. A potent cold front will only be carrying lake moisture with it as it crosses the NW counties and nears I-80 by 12Z/7AM EDT. The interesting thing is that a thin ribbon of moisture from LE may be pulled in along the front. The wind profile will get more vertically-aligned (from 280-290) as the front passes and make it gusty. The gusty wind and the enhanced moisture and instability along the front should result in at least one snow squall oriented perpendicular to the lake bands. The dryness of the ambient air and limited moisture could hold the potency/intensity of the squall(s) down, but we will continue to highlight this threat in the HWO and briefings. This is not a situation where the accums reach advy numbers (3"), but the suddenness of a squall can catch people off-guard. Especially considering the timing of the front/potential squall - which will probably be getting near I-80 around 7-9 AM and in commute/drive time.

The daytime/solar instability will miss out on the coincidence of the best moisture and passage of the front. But, the best wind profile for longer snow bands and some risk of squalls hold on until at least mid-day.

The storm total snow forecast thru early Wednesday morning has not changed much at all, and we still expect 6-10 inches north of Route 6 in Warren County. Lesser confidence (40%) in 6+ inches in northwestern McKean county, but it can not be ruled out. Amounts taper quickly to the south and east. A coating to 2 inches of snow is possible in the Laurel Highlands. A dusting to an inch is likely for most of the Allegheny Plateau and into Altoona and State College. Wind gusts will be in the 20s and 30s again on Tuesday with the highest numbers on the ridge tops of the Laurels and in the vicinity of the front. Wind chills will likely be in the single digits through the Alleghenies and the teens elsewhere late tonight into Tuesday morning, and then again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Backing flow in the cloud layer will take the majority of the lake effect bands back northward and into NY. Most/all of the area should be sans SN by sunrise Wed.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
By Wednesday, winds will begin to shift more southwesterly, which will result in lake effect snow tapering off across northwest Pennsylvania. Gusty winds will also diminish, though wind gusts of 15 to 25 miles per hour remain possible through Thursday. One more chilly day on Wednesday (highs generally in the 30s) will precede a moderating trend through the end of the week. Highs Thursday through Sunday in the 40s will be near to slightly above average for this time of year.

The next weather system arrives for late Thursday night into Friday as a broad area of moisture ahead of a an approaching cold front (and southern stream low heading at us from the Southern Plains States) tracks into the eastern half of the country.

Latest Operational and Ensemble model guidance indicates that moisture will be relatively inconsequential, ranging from around half an inch across the northwest to less than a tenth of an inch across much of southeast PA. Temperature profiles indicate that rain will be the dominant precipitation type, but a few wet flakes could mix in across the northeast.

The cold air mass will be shallow and rather fleeting in the wake of this system as the associated sfc high lifts NE into nrn New England late this weekend as mid/upper level heights rise around 60 meters and the flow aloft remains from the WSW to SW.

Although temps should warm aloft by 5-7 deg C Sunday into Monday morning, low-level temp profiles suggest that a relatively brief period of freezing or frozen precip is possible Sunday night/early Monday before changing to a few periods of rain/drizzle on Monday as the thicker, seeder-feeder layered cloud deck races away to the NE.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Low cigs and IFR vsby at JST continue due to the upper level disturbance with light SNSH going across JST and vicinity UNV/AOO. The main focus remains for later tonight (8Z-9Z onset)
as a slight wind shift brings increasing chcs for lake effect snow. Ensemble guidance continues to show moderate (50-60%) chcs of IFR cigs at BFD between 8Z-11Z with LAMP guidance also suggesting this potential so have continues the TEMPO group for lowering cigs with SN.

Lake effect snow will continue to affect the NW Mtns Tuesday with squall potential ramping up at BFD in the morning hours.
Heavier SN and reduced vsby and cigs have been outlined via TEMPO groups with moderate confidence (50-60%)across northern airfields and lower confidence progressing further south.
Outside of the Laurels and NW Mountains, VFR prevailing is expected across a majority of Central PA. West (270) winds will become increasingly gusty Tuesday, with Bufkit soundings supporting frequent gusts to near 30kts in the afternoon.

Wind and lake effect snow showers are expected to diminish Tuesday evening, as high pressure begins nosing into PA from the Ohio Valley. VFR is expected to prevail everywhere except over the NW Mountains, where lingering lake effect snow is likely to result in predominately MVFR/tempo IFR conditions.

Outlook...

Wed...Slight chance of light snow NW Mtns.

Thu...Slight chance of AM low cigs NW Mtns.

Fri...Low cigs/rain likely, mainly PM.

Sat...Lingering low cigs possible, mainly AM.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ004.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ005.

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