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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oswayo , PA

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Area Discussion for - State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 122133 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 533 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front passing through the southern tier will stall out around or just south of the Maryland border this afternoon through Friday. The presence of this front will lead to a daily chance of thunderstorms, mainly across the south, for the rest of the week. Some of the rain could be heavy along and south of the stalled front. A gradual cooling trend will be seen each day through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. A tale of 2 airmasses is seen across the region today, with a refreshingly drier and slightly cooler airmass spreading into our nrn zones attm, while a soupy airmass with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 76F holds tough along and south of a slow moving llvl boundary nearing the Mason/Dixon line.

Very high sfc based cape and anomalously high DCAPE values over 1000 j/kg will combine with the Quasi-stationary front and weak shear to produce a near optimal pulse severe environment through 23Z today given the fact that there is just a weak mid-level cap present. Very slow moving storms will pose the threat for flash flooding and localized microbursts as the deep rain cores collapse.

A Flash Flood Watch will continue in effect through this evening for Lanc and York Counties. Additional counties may be added to the watch later today. But, the threat is certainly highest in those two counties, as their FFG is near to even slightly below 1"/1hr. Schuylkill and northern Dauphin Co.s are also rather wet. But, the rest of the area is in a very dry stretch. Adams and Franklin Co.s have much higher FFG, and Fulton and Bedford Co.s are >2.5"/1hr.

Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) shows our wettest areas and a few counties surrounding them in a MDT risk for excessive rainfall (equates to flash flooding).

Convection will linger into the first half of the night, and will likely still be posing a FF threat. NAM makes some very high QPF from spotty storms over the Laurels and south-central mtns tonight, lingering them much longer than other mdls.

Look for mainly dry conditions across the entire region north of I-81 and the portion of I-76 extending through Scent PA.

High clouds streaming NE up the Ohio River Valley will curb the temp drop by a few to several deg F tonight, but it'll still be notably cooler than recent nights with min temps ranging from the Low 50s acrs the NW mtns, to near 70F in the SE valleys.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. Moisture will creep northward into the central counties during and after the storms that are on-going in southern PA. This will make it quite cloudy in many places S of IPT and UNV tonight despite the minimum in rainfall here/locally.

Daytime mixing on Thursday should lower dewpoints and some semblance of drying from the high pressure to our north could nudge the bulk of the showers/storms farther to the south and should allow for a lower PoP for the day over the south. Still, additional storms are expected, at least in the far S, during the aftn and evening on Thursday.

Temperatures trend a little cooler (right around normal) due to the cloud cover to start the day in the central and south. But, abundant sunshine across the north will help them get 5-10F above normal for the day.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A stationary boundary draped across the Mason-Dixon line will drive the potential for a few lingering showers overnight on Thursday. A small bubble of surface high pressure is expected to develop on Friday, forcing the stationary front south & bringing relatively tranquil weather to most of the Commonwealth into the weekend. Low pressure off the East Coast may bring a few showers into (where else than) southeast PA on Friday afternoon, but going with the dry solution through Saturday.

By Saturday evening, a weak surface trough underneath a broad upper trough will bring a surge of moisture into the Commonwealth during the day on Sunday. There is still ample uncertainty in the northward extent and amount of rainfall on Sunday with the ECENS trending drier and the GEFS trending wetter, but the GEFS mean produces upwards of an inch of rain to much of central and south central PA Sunday afternoon. The ECENS has trended wetter since 24 hours ago and bolsters confidence in higher PoPs. Have kept 40 PoPs in the forecast starting in the SW Saturday night and expanding over the entire area Sunday afternoon through Monday evening.

The weak surface trough will stick around through Monday before a cold front sweeps through the Commonwealth, marking the end of an unsettled stretch and ushering in cooler and drier weather.

The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 temperature outlook favors below normal temperatures in central PA. This will be a welcome relief after a prolonged stretch of warm weather. Additionally, the arrival of high pressure by the middle of next week seems to favor a drier than normal stretch for a little bit.

AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Updated the TAFS as of late afternoon. Still a few showers and isolated storms across far southern PA.

I did make a few changes on the update, which I will carry into the 00Z TAF package. Backed off on low conditions some.

Other changes was to add VCSH across the southeast for Friday.

Earlier discussion below.

VFR flying will prevail through the rest of today in most places (and VFR will stay intact across the nrn half of the CWA).

Slow moving to nearly stationary thunderstorms are likely across the far south central to southeast airspace later this afternoon/evening. Locally heavy downpours may result in brief IFR vis impacts. Coverage of showers should decrease tonight across the southern tier. Patchy fog and low cigs are possible into early Thursday morning.

Outlook .

Fri..Isold-sct t-storms possible mainly srn 1/2. Sat-Sun . Risk of t-storms expands north and west. Mon . Still a chance of showers and storms.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ065-066.

SYNOPSIS . Lambert/Dangelo NEAR TERM . Lambert/Dangelo SHORT TERM . Lambert/Dangelo LONG TERM . Banghoff AVIATION . Lambert/Martin

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY	77 mi	52 min		78°F			1019.1 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY	81 mi	52 min	WSW 6 G 6	79°F	79°F		1019.5 hPa	45°F
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY	81 mi	70 min	NNW 1 G 1.9	80°F			1019.2 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Wellsville, Wellsville Municipal Airport, NY	14 mi	74 min	NNW 4	10.00 mi	Fair	75°F	50°F	42%	1020.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KELZ

Wind History from ELZ (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for State College, PA (19,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station State College, PA

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