Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oswayo , PA

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Area Discussion for - State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 151156 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 656 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. An upper level trough over the eastern Grt Lks will lift out, as high pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley late today. Low pressure originating over the southern plains will track northeast into the Mid Atlantic region Monday into Tuesday. An upper level trough will swing through the northeast conus during the middle of next week, then high pressure will likely build in late in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Approach of high pressure and lowering inversion heights should cause lake enhanced, orographic snow showers/flurries over the Allegheny Plateau to gradually diminish today. Any additional accumulation will be less than an inch. Subsidence to the lee of the Appalachians should result in a decent amount of sunshine later today across the southeast part of the forecast area, while stratocu persists across the western half of the state.

All of central Pa will remain under the influence of intense low pressure lifting into Quebec, resulting in continued gusty west winds. Model soundings support occasional gusts to near 30kts through much of the day.

Mixing down model 850 temps between -10C and -5C yields expected max temps from around 30F over the high terrain of western Pa, to the low 40s across the Susq Valley.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Model consensus tracks surface low associated with southern stream wave along the Mason Dixon Line late Monday into early Tuesday. NBM thermal profiles support an initial period of snow, followed by a change to rain or mixed precip south of I-80 Monday PM, while the northern tier counties appear likely to remain all snow.

Although the surface low is not progged to be very deep, this system will be drawing copious Gulf of Mexico moisture northward. Frontogenetic forcing associated right jet entrance region is likely to focus the heaviest precipitation along the southern tier of Pa, where latest guidance supports potential precip totals of around 1 inch, the bulk of which should fall as rain.

WPC and NBM guidance currently support a general 1-3 inch snowfall, with the best chance of reaching advisory criteria over the southern tier Monday AM. An examination of latest model soundings indicate surface temperatures are likely to have risen above 32F over much of southern Pa by the time snow changes over Monday afternoon, so have slightly undercut WPC ice accumulations.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Northern snow/southern rain should taper off Tuesday, as surface wave exits the Mid Atlantic coast. The 00Z NAEFS and ECENS both support a period of below average temperatures during mid week, as an anomalous upper trough swings through the northeast conus. The flow off of the Grt Lks briefly appears favorable for lake effect snow showers across northwest Pa Wednesday, then the arrival of surface high should result in a period of fair weather through the balance of the work week.

Model spread and forecast uncertainty ramp up toward next weekend. Much of the guidance has a digging trough approaching from the midwest, so anticipate moderating temperatures ahead of this feature and a possible need to introduce a chance of rain/snow showers by Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Ceilings over the western half have lifted a bit to MVFR, but lingering snow showers through the morning hours may still bring a brief bout of IFR to JST and a couple hour period of IFR to the BFD area. Otherwise, ceiling improve areawide with mostly sunny conditions developing across the east. Westerly winds will continue to be brisk, and strongest over the western half. Sustained speeds around 15 mph will be common, with gusts to 25-35 mph over the western higher terrain, closer to 25 mph gusts over the east.

Winds subside this evening as just about everywhere remains VFR (the NW mountains may hold on to MVFR cigs). But next system slides in from the SW late tonight into Monday, spreading widespread restrictions back into the region, with MVFR-IFR ceilings and vsbys in snow. As warmer air changes precip through a wintry mix and then to plain rain over the southern half later Monday into Mon night, vsbys will improve but widespread ceiling restrictions will remain.

Outlook.

Mon . PM low cigs/wintry mix possible.

Tue . Low cigs NW, improving conditions elsewhere.

Wed . Restrictions likely north/west with snow showers.

Thu . No restrictions expected.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Fitzgerald NEAR TERM . Fitzgerald SHORT TERM . Fitzgerald LONG TERM . Fitzgerald/Banghoff AVIATION . RXR

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY	77 mi	62 min		34°F			1012.5 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY	81 mi	56 min	W 19 G 24	32°F	38°F		1012.7 hPa	17°F
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY	81 mi	44 min	W 27 G 32	34°F			1012.4 hPa (+3.5)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Wellsville, Wellsville Municipal Airport, NY	14 mi	48 min	W 18 G 25	4.00 mi	Light Snow and Breezy	28°F	23°F	81%	1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KELZ

Wind History from ELZ (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for State College, PA (12,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station State College, PA

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