Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oswayo, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 4:37PM Sunday December 15, 2019 12:43 PM EST (17:43 UTC) Moonrise 8:23PMMoonset 10:35AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Expires:201912151015;;805646 Fzus51 Kbuf 150529 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1229 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez040-041-151015- Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 1229 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Overnight..West winds to 30 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Sunday..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of snow showers in the morning, then a chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Light and variable winds becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots. Rain and snow likely. Waves 1 foot or less building to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Snow and rain likely during the day, then a chance of snow and rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
LEZ041


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oswayo , PA
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location: 41.91, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 151156 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 656 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. An upper level trough over the eastern Grt Lks will lift out, as high pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley late today. Low pressure originating over the southern plains will track northeast into the Mid Atlantic region Monday into Tuesday. An upper level trough will swing through the northeast conus during the middle of next week, then high pressure will likely build in late in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Approach of high pressure and lowering inversion heights should cause lake enhanced, orographic snow showers/flurries over the Allegheny Plateau to gradually diminish today. Any additional accumulation will be less than an inch. Subsidence to the lee of the Appalachians should result in a decent amount of sunshine later today across the southeast part of the forecast area, while stratocu persists across the western half of the state.

All of central Pa will remain under the influence of intense low pressure lifting into Quebec, resulting in continued gusty west winds. Model soundings support occasional gusts to near 30kts through much of the day.

Mixing down model 850 temps between -10C and -5C yields expected max temps from around 30F over the high terrain of western Pa, to the low 40s across the Susq Valley.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Model consensus tracks surface low associated with southern stream wave along the Mason Dixon Line late Monday into early Tuesday. NBM thermal profiles support an initial period of snow, followed by a change to rain or mixed precip south of I-80 Monday PM, while the northern tier counties appear likely to remain all snow.

Although the surface low is not progged to be very deep, this system will be drawing copious Gulf of Mexico moisture northward. Frontogenetic forcing associated right jet entrance region is likely to focus the heaviest precipitation along the southern tier of Pa, where latest guidance supports potential precip totals of around 1 inch, the bulk of which should fall as rain.

WPC and NBM guidance currently support a general 1-3 inch snowfall, with the best chance of reaching advisory criteria over the southern tier Monday AM. An examination of latest model soundings indicate surface temperatures are likely to have risen above 32F over much of southern Pa by the time snow changes over Monday afternoon, so have slightly undercut WPC ice accumulations.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Northern snow/southern rain should taper off Tuesday, as surface wave exits the Mid Atlantic coast. The 00Z NAEFS and ECENS both support a period of below average temperatures during mid week, as an anomalous upper trough swings through the northeast conus. The flow off of the Grt Lks briefly appears favorable for lake effect snow showers across northwest Pa Wednesday, then the arrival of surface high should result in a period of fair weather through the balance of the work week.

Model spread and forecast uncertainty ramp up toward next weekend. Much of the guidance has a digging trough approaching from the midwest, so anticipate moderating temperatures ahead of this feature and a possible need to introduce a chance of rain/snow showers by Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Ceilings over the western half have lifted a bit to MVFR, but lingering snow showers through the morning hours may still bring a brief bout of IFR to JST and a couple hour period of IFR to the BFD area. Otherwise, ceiling improve areawide with mostly sunny conditions developing across the east. Westerly winds will continue to be brisk, and strongest over the western half. Sustained speeds around 15 mph will be common, with gusts to 25-35 mph over the western higher terrain, closer to 25 mph gusts over the east.

Winds subside this evening as just about everywhere remains VFR (the NW mountains may hold on to MVFR cigs). But next system slides in from the SW late tonight into Monday, spreading widespread restrictions back into the region, with MVFR-IFR ceilings and vsbys in snow. As warmer air changes precip through a wintry mix and then to plain rain over the southern half later Monday into Mon night, vsbys will improve but widespread ceiling restrictions will remain.

Outlook.

Mon . PM low cigs/wintry mix possible.

Tue . Low cigs NW, improving conditions elsewhere.

Wed . Restrictions likely north/west with snow showers.

Thu . No restrictions expected.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Fitzgerald NEAR TERM . Fitzgerald SHORT TERM . Fitzgerald LONG TERM . Fitzgerald/Banghoff AVIATION . RXR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 77 mi62 min 34°F 1012.5 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 81 mi56 min W 19 G 24 32°F 38°F1012.7 hPa17°F
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 81 mi44 min W 27 G 32 34°F 1012.4 hPa (+3.5)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wellsville, Wellsville Municipal Airport, NY14 mi48 minW 18 G 254.00 miLight Snow and Breezy28°F23°F81%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KELZ

Wind History from ELZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9NW10NW13
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S6S10S8SE6SE4S5SE4CalmSE5E3CalmCalmCalmN4CalmNE3E3CalmW6NW5
2 days ago6S7S9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for State College, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station State College, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.