Monroe, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Monroe, MI

April 16, 2024 5:01 PM EDT (21:01 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:48 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM
Moonrise 12:08 PM   Moonset 2:55 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017

Rest of tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.

Sunday - Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning - .then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.

Sunday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening - .then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.

Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
the water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.

LEZ400
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Monroe, MI
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 161948 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 348 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect through 8PM this evening for a portion of SE MI.

- Shower chances will increase this evening into tonight as a warm front encroaches on the area.

- Showers and thundestorms are expected Wednesday as low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes.

- There is a slight chance of severe weather generally south of the I-69 corridor mainly on Wednesday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Plenty of filtered sun today through a veil of high cloud debris shedding off the approaching low currently over the central Plains.
Easterly flow on the north side of the warm front is helping keep temps subdued today, holding them in the mid 60s mostly. Cooler in the shadows of Lakes Huron and Erie. Main issue today is the Red Flag Warning in effect for a portion of SEMI. Dry airmass and decent mixing today will help drop RH values toward 25-30 percent. With some wind gusts to 15-20 knots and plenty of dry fuels pre green up and coordination with the neighboring offices and MDNR, the warning was issued through 8 PM.

Attention then turns to the strong Plains low that will lift up into the Midwest tonight and then across northern lower Wednesday and the potential for severe weather over SEMI Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Much of the pattern/scenario holds true from the previous few models cycle with the stacked low over the Midwest starting to phase with the stronger northern stream trough digging into the northern Plains. This will cause the mature southern stream wave to start to occlude and shear out across the Great Lakes Wednesday. Precip chances begin tonight after 00Z as the initial lobe of vorticity ejects northeast through lower MI with the low level jet pumping increasing waves of theta e up the front. With the warm front hung up across northern IN/OH this will lead to increasing chances of showers through the night with a non-zero chance of an isolated elevated thunderstorms.

The occluded front starts working across SW lower early in the day while the warm front start slowly lifting northward. This while a shortwave rounding the base of the trough provides a boost eastward with a westerly 40 knot low level jet. Severe chances will be dictated by how far north the warm front can reach before the cold front surges east of the area. Models have been consistent with taking it up to around I69 which allows a plume of most unstable air to lift into the region ahead of the cold front. MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg can be expected which could get a little extra boost from daytime heating if clouds can clear out after the morning showers for a few hours. Regardless, Ample moisture will be around with dewpoints up to around 60F and PWATs over 1 inch will be in place with strong shear around 40 knots and the warm front, cold front, and triple point/meso low passing through the area.
Hodographs have favorable low level profiles with initially southeasterly flow present so could get some storms to spin. All this adds up to SPC including us in a Slight Risk area with a 5% tornado risk. Once the upper level westerly flow helps line out the storms, main threat would become wind with some large hail as well.
This line could develop to the west over SW lower, leading to more of a wind threat with a few embedded circs locally, but we'll see how that plays out. Main window for storms looks to be from 2PM to 8PM.

Subsidence in the wake of the front with drying throughout the column will bring the rain to an end early overnight. Thursday should be dry to start with temps still hanging in the 60s as westerly flow won't offer much in the way of cooler air, but the cold front tied to the northern stream low will then swing through Thursday evening/night which will bring another round of showers and cooler air in its wake. Highs Saturday will hold in the lower 50s with lows Saturday and Sunday nights dropping down into the low 30s.

MARINE

Low pressure moving into IA this afternoon tracks ENE into the western Great Lakes tonight, causing easterly winds to strengthen under the increasing pressure gradient. 35 knot gales are expected to begin across northern and central Lake Huron shortly after midnight, continuing through Wednesday with some intermittent gusts to 40 knots possible. A Gale Warning remains in effect. Farther south, winds will be easterly at 25 to 30 knots and Small Craft Advisories remain in effect. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms accompany the system late tonight through Wednesday night. Some storms may be strong to severe across the south Wednesday afternoon and evening. The system will be weakening by the time the center moves through the region Wednesday night with winds shifting to westerly and decreasing in magnitude on Thursday. A weak cold front then moves through the region Friday morning with another round of showers and possible storms. Westerly winds in the wake of the front reach 20 to 25 knots Friday afternoon and remain moderate through the weekend.

HYDROLOGY

A warm front will lift into the region late tonight into Wednesday in advance of a strong low pressure over the midwest. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible along this front with the greatest coverage occurring tonight into Wednesday. Additional showers and thunderstorms will impact parts of the area Wednesday afternoon into early evening as this low tracks through far northern lower Michigan and forces a cold front through the area. Total rainfall is forecast to reach near a half inch for most locations with slightly higher amounts north of I69. While significant flooding is not expected at this time, expect minor flooding in prone urban and poor drainage areas and possibly notable rises in area rivers.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

AVIATION...

High pressure influence lingers today with variable easterly flow and modest coverage of high cirrus. Clouds thicken and lower overnight as a low pressure system near the Upper Midwest dislodges drawing increasingly moist air into Southeast Michigan once the system's LLJ situates overhead. Expect varying coverage of showers after midnight with lower ceilings into Wednesday morning. Some additional showers and perhaps a stray rumble of thunder are possible as another round of activity develops under the strong dynamic forcing which could also lead to some reduction in visibilities through 14Z Wednesday. A brief drier period lingers into the midday hours before the arrival of pre-frontal storms around/after 18Z Wednesday.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Low confidence in the development of thunderstorms tonight and Wednesday morning as shower activity should predominantly remain scattered due to lagged moistening and limited elevated instability. A cold front is then expected to move through Wednesday afternoon which generates a line of thunderstorms oriented from north-south. This line of storms should become increasingly organized ahead of the boundary resulting in a 1-2 hour window for thunder, reduced visibilities from heavy rainfall, and a burst of strong winds. Some potential exists for a brief spin-up tornado along the line. Models suggest timing is currently favored between 19Z and 21Z. Some discrete single-cell thunderstorms within the warm sector could also lift north ahead of the line between 16Z and 19Z, but confidence in this activity is low.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium for ceiling below 5,000 ft after midnight and Wednesday.

* Low for thunderstorms from 07-12Z and 16-19Z Wednesday, then medium from 19-21Z Wednesday.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ047-053-054-060- 061-068.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning from 2 AM Wednesday to midnight EDT Wednesday night for LHZ361-362.

Gale Warning from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ363.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT Wednesday night for LHZ421-422-441.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to midnight EDT Wednesday night for LHZ442-443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ444.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 12 mi62 min ENE 21G23 51°F 30.0641°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 16 mi44 min E 18G20 54°F 30.0343°F
TWCO1 16 mi22 min SW 19G23 51°F 45°F
CMPO1 32 mi92 min E 13G16 54°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 35 mi62 min ENE 13G19 51°F 30.09
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 43 mi44 min E 8G11 50°F 30.0539°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi62 min 0G0 60°F 30.13


Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KTTF CUSTER,MI 3 sm26 minE 08G1410 smPartly Cloudy63°F37°F39%30.05
KONZ GROSSE ILE MUNI,MI 18 sm26 minE 0910 smClear68°F28°F23%30.05
KDUH TOLEDO SUBURBAN,MI 19 sm26 minE 09G1610 smPartly Cloudy61°F36°F39%30.06
KDTW DETROIT METROPOLITAN WAYNE COUNTY,MI 21 sm68 minE 10G1510 smMostly Cloudy68°F39°F35%30.09
KYIP WILLOW RUN,MI 24 sm68 minE 1110 smClear70°F43°F38%30.08
Link to 5 minute data for KTTF


Wind History from TTF
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of great lakes   
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Detroit, MI,



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