Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Smith River, CA

FXUS66 KMFR 122253 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 253 PM PST Thu Feb 12 2026

DISCUSSION
Relatively quiet weather is expected through much of the weekend. Low pressure is moving off to the east today with a shortwave ridge expected to follow tonight into early Friday.
Satellite shows plenty of clouds along the terrain this afternoon and radar shows some isolated light returns across the East Side.
Otherwise, it's fairly quiet weather wise this afternoon. Expect some fog and low clouds in West Side Valleys tonight with seasonable temperatures. Another low pressure will dive south late Friday and dig offshore before settling just off the coast of northern California Saturday into Sunday. This will push a front onshore Friday, but as the trough digs, the front will stall along the coast, not making much inland progress before lifting back north as a warm front. This will result in mainly dry conditions for most areas east of the Coastal Range and south of the Umpqua Divide through Saturday. Precipitation becomes more widespread late Saturday night into Sunday, heaviest across southern Siskiyou County. Snow levels will hover around 4500 ft through this period, so winter impacts will be limited to the mountains with this first round of precipitation on Sunday. There's some uncertainty regarding timing of the onset of precipitation, but there is fairly good agreement on a period of moderate to heavy snow Sunday into early Monday and we may need to consider some winter headlines for portions of the Trinity Alps.

The pattern becomes more complex on Monday. Low pressure to the south continues moving eastward while a deep/cold trough from the north drops southward. Variability remains on the trajectory of this northerly trough, and it matters because it will influence just how low snow levels fall for the Tuesday-Thursday period of next week. The GEFS keeps the low farther offshore compared to the EC ensembles, which would maintain higher snow levels. Despite these differences, there is enough agreement to settle on snow levels lowering to around 2000-2500 ft by Tuesday morning. This will bring increasing and more widespread winter weather impacts to the region, particularly to the mountains, East Side and Mt Shasta City region. The base of the trough, and the bulk of the energy/moisture looks to be directed into California so the heaviest precipitation looks to remain south of the region, with the exception being across northern California where upslope flow could maintain moderate snowfall in the Mt Shasta Region. Precipitation will continue off/on through much of next week and with snow levels being this low, winter impacts are possible at many of the region's passes and possibly even down to West Side valley floors during the overnight/morning time frame. Given this is still 6-8 days out in the forecast, we expect details to fluctuate as models come into better agreement.

Currently, for the period from Monday 4pm through Wednesday 4pm, the National Blend of Models indicates a high chance (60-95%) for snowfall of 6 inches for mountains above 4000 feet from the Cascades west and in the Mount Shasta City and surrounding area. The NBM also supports a high chance (60-80%) for snowfall amounts of 12 inches or more in higher elevations (above 4500 ft) in the Cascades and mountains in western and southern Siskiyou County. There is a medium chance (40-60%)
for up to 12 inches of snow in the Mount Shasta City area during this period. As the upper trough moves inland Tuesday and Wednesday and snow levels lower to around 1800-2500 feet, there is a potential for light to moderate snow down to lower passes. The NBM supports a 40-60% chance for an inch or more of snow across lower passes on I-5 near Canyon Mountain and Sexton Summit and a 40-50% chance for an inch or more of snow at Hayes Hill, Camas Mountain, in the southern Illinois Valley, for areas in and around Ashland, and for portions of the lower Klamath River valley in western Siskiyou County. Tuesday night into Wednesday snow levels may drop down as low as 1000-1500 ft with a 10-20% chance for light snowfall down to lower valleys such as Medford, Grants Pass and Canyonville. Stay tuned for updates as the time gets closer. /BR-y
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