Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Smith River, CA

FXUS66 KMFR 172202 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 302 PM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026

DISCUSSION

Hot and dry weather continues across the region this afternoon as highs push into the mid 90's yet again. For reference, our 'normal' high here in Medford is 81 and we're forecasting 95 this afternoon. A thermal trough will remain in place along the southern Oregon coast this afternoon as some coastal trapped stratus starts to make it's way up the coast by Thursday.

An upper level low will in the Pacific will shove a short wave into our area by Thursday afternoon and evening. The latest convective allowing models are picking up one isolated thunderstorm activity in northern California by Thursday afternoon. Additionally, the high resolution ensemble forecast(HRRR) collective is predicting a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms within 20km of a point within a 4 hour period.
These numbers usually correlate to some thunderstorm activity within our area during the Thursday afternoon. There is a low chance that thunderstorms linger overnight with some lightning activity.

In addition, one could analyze the thermal trough farther inland given the 1000-500 mb thickness values and inverted trough at 850mb east of the Cascades. Temperatures will still be hot and peak in the 90's again even without a stronger ridge overhead.

By Friday, temperatures trend lower as the 500 mb trough over the Pacific moves closer to shore and sporadic cloud cover builds in the afternoon. The thunderstorm threat increases notably by Friday afternoon due to more moisture and favorable lift. Most of the storm activity will be in northern California with storms spreading into south central Oregon by the evening hours.
The joint probability of convective available potential energy > 500 and shear >30 knots is about 35% in northern California.
Therefore, severe thunderstorms are pretty unlikely, although some stonger outflow around 35 to perhaps 40 mph are possible.

This trough will push eastwards by Saturday with the threat of thunderstorms shifting east to mainly Lake County. Temperatures will trend lower, although still remain above normal for this time of year.

We warm right back up next week with highs moving into the upper 90's here in Medford and 80's east of the Cascades. The extreme forecast index(EFI) wasn't picking up on anything in the extended forecast, so just unusually warm seems like that main theme next week.

-Smith
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