Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kingston, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Frost Advisory continues for the Lake George northern Saratoga Region, where the growing season has begun with temps in the lower to mid 30s, impacting sensitive outdoor vegetation.

2)Localized areas of frost may occur again with temps in the mid 30s for Washington, northern Saratoga, and southeast Warren Counties before clouds arrive.

3) Unsettled weather pattern late tonight thru the weekend into early next week with periods of showers and below normal temps, but no hydrologic impacts are expected.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The skies cleared and the winds went light to calm for ideal radiational cooling this morning, as NYS Mesonet sites indicate temps have fallen into the 29F to 35F range across northern Saratoga, Washington and southeast Warren Counties with the KGFL ASOS at least 32F. The Frost Advisory continues until 7 am. The areas of frost likely will impact any sensitive vegetation left outdoors. Clouds are on the increase with some scattered showers over the southeast Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and northwest CT. The clouds should slow the rate of cooling, where the Advisory is in place. Temps should quickly rise after sunrise ending the threat of frost.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Another brief window for radiative cooling (mostly clear/partly cloudy skies) with light to calm winds) and temps falling into the 32-36F range may occur once again for portions of the Lake George-Glens Falls area/northern Saratoga Region tonight before clouds arrive. The growing season started on May 1st for these areas. The coverage area may be slightly smaller and the arrival of the mid and high clouds quicker. If confidence increases, then another Frost Advisory may be needed to protect tender, outdoor vegetation.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
A rather active and unsettled weather pattern continues today through the weekend into early next week. Temps will be running below normal today and Sat with a mean mid and upper level trough impacting the eastern half of the CONUS. An upper level disturbance and a sfc trough will yield isolated to scattered light showers late this morning through the afternoon. The mid- level lapse rates are steep for instability showers to form.
Low-level moisture is limited, but we expanded the coverage of the isolated to scattered light showers across most of eastern NY and western New England with max temps only in the mid 50s to around 60F in the valleys, and mid 40s to lower 50s over the higher terrain. Breezy W/NW winds continue 5 to 15 mph.

Tonight a brief break in the showers early on, but clouds quickly increase from the south/west with the isentropic lift increasing ahead of a warm front associated with low pressure approaching from the Great Lakes Region. Periods of showers develop late tonight and continue through most of the day Sat.
The PoPs are in the 60-95% range across most of the forecast area, except the southern Dacks. It will be a cool and damp day.
The rainfall may be briefly moderate in intensity, but no flooding is expected. It will be a damp and chilly day with max temps in the mid/upper 40s to mid/upper 50s over the forecast area. Rainfall amounts will range a tenth to a quarter inch from the Capital District northwest into the southern Dacks with a quarter to a half south and east.

The showers end early Sat night, but the systems cold front will be arriving for Mothers Day with another chance of showers after a cool night in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Temps may rise closer to normal May readings in the 60s to around 70F in the valleys and 50s to lower 60s over the higher terrain ahead of the frontal passage. The boundary may get hung up near the East Coast with a wave tracking along or near NY and New England Sun night through Mon. The highest probs for a quarter to half inch of rainfall are south and east of the Capital District. Some variability continues in the medium range guidance and ensembles with the track of the wave. A drier trend is possible early next week with high pressure building with still cooler than normal temps, though chances of showers increase from the mid week onward due to the influence of the broad longwave trough and a low pressure system tracking over the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic States. Overall, a wet and unsettled spring or May pattern, but rainfall amounts do not look excessive to cause any flooding or hydro issues at this time.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 06z Saturday...VFR conditions prevail across all TAF sites early this morning, though clouds are increasing as a weak shortwave passes by overhead. Some highly scattered showers have also developed as a result, but only around POU who is currently reporting -RA with VFR ceilings and unobstructed visibility.
Once this patch of showers moves through, dry conditions will return with ceilings generally developing as clouds increase in coverage. Additional highly scattered showers will develop this afternoon as another weak wave passes aloft, but the only terminal anticipated to potentially see conditions worsen past the VFR category is PSF where an MVFR ceiling could develop for brief periods of time. Once this secondary disturbance passes, ceilings will begin to break again such that VFR conditions linger into the overnight period tonight.

Winds are currently light to completely calm but will increase later this morning into this afternoon out of the west to northwest. Sustained speeds will reach about 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt everywhere by this afternoon before the loss of daytime heating and subsequent deep mixing allow a decreasing trend into the first half of the overnight. Sustained speeds will then become rather light, under 10 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for NYZ041-043-083- 084.
MA...None.
VT...None.