Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Conneaut, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Main concern in the near term period will be the threat for two rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The primary hazards with the first round of storms this afternoon will be large hail, damaging wind gusts, and the potential for a tornado or two, especially. given the anticipated storm mode to be supercellular. The second round this evening will likely feature a mature MCS moving northeast across the Midwest towards the I-77 corridor with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few isolated significant wind gusts exceeding 70 mph.

Current satellite imagery indicates a remnant MCV located near west-central OH this afternoon, with agitated cu beginning to develop across North and Northwest OH. The latest SPC mesoanalysis suggests a favorable environment in place for supercells, with 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in place coinciding with strong bulk shear of 50 to 60 knots. Surface observations reveal a tight moisture gradient across the region, with dew points near the lakeshore in the upper 40s, increasing into the low to mid-60s along and south of the US-30 corridor. Do think the primary threat is large hail and damaging winds with any storms that develop this afternoon into the early evening (likely 4-8 PM), though cannot rule out a tornado or two.

Attention then turns towards this evening, where current satellite imagery reveals a strong convective complex taking shape across eastern MO and southwest IL this afternoon. The environment ahead of this complex is extremely favorable for damaging wind gusts, with DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg.
Hires models differ on if this complex can sustain its strength as it continues northeast into the Lower Great Lakes region by later this evening. If it does, anticipate damaging wind gusts to arrive across the I-75 corridor by around 9 PM, with perhaps some isolated instances of significant wind gusts exceeding 70 mph possible. This complex should weaken as it moves east and encounters a less favorable environment near the I-71/77 corridors by around 11 PM to midnight.

A cold front will sweep east through the area Saturday morning and afternoon, ushering in a significant pattern change across the region. Could see some redevelopment along the cold front, particularly along and east of the I-77 corridor early Saturday afternoon, though not anticipating any severe storms at this time. It may feel a bit blustery Saturday afternoon behind the front, with temperatures falling into the low 60s and westerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible.



SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Drier air will continue to filter into the region Sunday as the closed mid/upper low drifts east through the New England states allowing strong surface high pressure centered near Hudson Bay to build ridging southward into the Lower Great Lakes. A few isolated showers and overcast skies could linger in far NE Ohio and NW PA Sunday morning before the increased ridging allows for mostly sunny and dry conditions areawide by afternoon. Despite the sunshine, temperatures will be unseasonably cool as mid/upper troughing remains across the Great Lakes, with highs only in the upper 50s to low 60s in far NE Ohio and NW PA and mid 60s to around 70 elsewhere.
The surface ridge and trough aloft will continue through Monday, so unfortunately for those wanting a warm up, temperatures will remain cool for awhile. Highs Monday are only expected to reach the upper 50s to low 60s again in far NE Ohio and NW PA and low to mid 60s elsewhere. Lows Sunday night will dip into the mid 40s to low 50s, with more widespread 40s possible Monday night depending on how quickly clouds and scattered showers can start to creep northeastward ahead of another closed low in the Mid Mississippi Valley. Patchy frost is possible in NW PA Monday night where skies should remain clear longer, so this will need to be monitored.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The big story of the extended will be a continuation of below normal temperatures as an increasingly amplified pattern develops across North America, characterized by strengthening west coast mid/upper ridging and deepening central and eastern U.S. mid/upper troughing.
This will keep temperatures a solid 10-15 degrees below normal Tuesday through Friday, with highs mainly in the low to mid 60s and lows in the 40s. The cool pattern will continue beyond the 7-day forecast into late May. The precipitation forecast Tuesday through the end of the week is a little more uncertain due to timing uncertainties with the aforementioned Mid Mississippi Valley closed low ejecting across the Ohio Valley region. As mid/upper shortwave energy drops through the Great Lakes Monday night through Wednesday and deepens the longwave trough, the closed low will attempt to phase with the trough. This will eventually result in a deep closed low and cold pool aloft pinwheeling overhead late in the week, but how and when it phases will determine the timing and track of the best moisture and forcing. The overall message is that rain chances will increase Tuesday into Wednesday, with decent coverage of showers possible mid to late week making things cool and unsettled.
Not the best news as Memorial Day Weekend approaches.

AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/
VFR across the TAF sites early this afternoon with primarily VFR to persist through the TAF period. Two main periods of concern for the TAF sites; one being this afternoon and evening as isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along a warm front with large hail being the primary hazard. The highest confidence for TAF impacts in this round of storms would be primarily along and east of the I-71 corridor.
The second period is later this evening, generally along and west of the I-71 corridor where a line of storms may arrive into Northwest Ohio. Damaging wind gusts in excess of 50 knots would be the primary hazard in this case. A cold front will cross from west to east through the area Saturday morning and early afternoon. Could see some redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms along the cold front, particularly along and east of the I-77 corridor.

Winds are variable early this afternoon, with light north to northwest flow ahead of the warm front, 5 knots or less, and strengthening flow out of the south behind the warm front, 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Winds will abruptly shift to the southwest and west behind a cold front late Saturday morning and early afternoon, 15 to 20 knots with gusts of 25 to 30 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in low ceilings across the eastern half of the area on Sunday. Mainly VFR is expected Monday and Tuesday. Non-VFR is likely to return on Wednesday in widespread showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Thunderstorms could bring locally higher winds and waves on Lake Erie this evening and tonight, but otherwise, the next period of elevated winds and waves will come Saturday into Sunday as strong cold air advection encourages good mixing. SW winds of 10-20 knots tonight will turn WSW behind a cold front Saturday morning and increase to 15-25 knots. This will build waves of 3 to 5 feet, so issued Small Craft Advisories starting Saturday morning. The winds and waves will gradually subside Saturday night, but it will take until Sunday morning to end in the central and eastern basins, so ran the advisories longer there. Winds will turn NW and decrease to 5-10 knots Sunday afternoon then N at 5-15 knots Sunday night and Monday. A period of strong NE winds of 15-25 knots is possible Monday night through midweek as a slow moving closed low approaches from the Mid Mississippi Valley and an upper level trough deepens across the Great Lakes. This will likely require another round of Small Craft Advisories.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>145.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ146-147.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ148-149.