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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Timberlake, OH

June 25, 2024 1:51 PM EDT (17:51 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 9:05 PM
Moonrise 11:13 PM   Moonset 8:35 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LEZ166 Expires:202406252015;;908437 Fzus61 Kcle 251511 Glfle
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 1111 am edt Tue jun 25 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.

Synopsis - High pressure 30.00 inches will shift east of the region today. A cold front will move across the lake on Wednesday. High pressure 30.00 inches will return behind the cold front for Thursday. This high will shift east on Friday and allow a warm front across the lake. Another cold front will cross the lake on Saturday.
lez164>166-252015- the islands to vermilion oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- vermilion to avon point oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- avon point to willowick oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- 1111 am edt Tue jun 25 2024

Rest of today - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning, then showers with Thunderstorms likely early this afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet.

Tonight - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms from late evening on. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.

Wednesday - West winds around 10 knots becoming northwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday night - North winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

Thursday - North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Waves 2 feet or less.

Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers Friday night. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

No data

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Timberlake, OH
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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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583 FXUS61 KCLE 251747 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 147 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Low pressure will continue to move east across the northern Great Lakes region, moving a warm front north today followed by a cold front Wednesday. High pressure returns for Thursday and Friday before another low pressure impacts the region this weekend.

1 PM Update...
More minor changes to pops and temperatures to reflect current trends. Model guidance is way too bullish on recovery this afternoon, so have lowered high temps a few degrees as we will struggle to rise into the 80s for much of the area. Precip chances will diminish over the next few hours with a fairly decent lull in precip expected through the evening, aside from some shower/storm chances early this evening across mainly northeast OH and northwest PA.

Original Discussion... To start off, this forecast is extremely tricky given the upstream MCS currently ongoing and how this will continue to evolve as it tracks south-southeast towards the area. Hi-res models diverge quite a bit in the handling of this system and there are multiple potential outcomes that can impact the area. The first is that the MCS continues to decay, reaching the northwest periphery of the area near 15Z and resulting in locally gusty winds and heavy rainfall keeping overall impacts fairly minor. The other potential outcome will be that the strength of the MCS maintains and surges south across Lake Erie, impacts a larger portion of the area with strong winds, heavy rain, and isolated hail. There are many factors that will determine how this evolves, including how much instability will ramp up ahead of the MCS and more importantly if that will be enough to break the cap. High EMLs and steep mid-level lapse rates may be able to continue the decaying trend of the MCS, but again if the instability ramps up quick ahead of it then that may be enough to generate more surface based storms and increase the potential for damaging wind gusts.

As this initial round of showers pushes south and continues to decay, a warm front will move across the area late afternoon/early evening, resulting in an increase of WAA and moisture across the area. It is important to note that due to the models slowing the progression of the warm front east, high temperatures for today are not only forecast to climb into the low to mid 80s. There remains a lot of uncertainty in any additional convection this afternoon and into the overnight hour, specifically with uncertainty in how well the atmosphere will recover after this mornings convection. Given the increasing moisture and diurnally driven instability, opted to maintain a chance of PoPs this afternoon into the evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 60s to low 70s. To account for the potential of severe weather today and tonight, SPC and WPC has placed much of the area in a Day 1 Marginal Risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall. Primary concerns will be strong, damaging winds and localized flooding.

Late tonight and on Wednesday, a cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure will begin to move east across the area.
With good synoptic support and strong isentropic lift, expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to impact the area for Wednesday. To account for this severe potential, SPC & WPC has placed much of the area in a Day 2 Marginal Risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall. The primary hazard with these storms will be damaging winds and efficient, heavy rainfall which may result in localized flooding. High temperatures on Wednesday will climb into the mid to upper 70s.

Again, it is important to note that this entire forecast is highly dependent on the evolution of the ongoing MCS over the upper Midwest and is valid to change/be adjusted in the coming updates as models begin to handle the evolving complex better.

The short term forecast period will be fairly quiet, especially compared to the days before and day after the period. A cold front will be exiting the forecast area on Wednesday night and have quickly fading PoPs with clearing skies and falling temperatures into the lower 60s. High pressure will build in behind the cold front for Thursday and Thursday night and temperatures will be cooler than normal in the 70s during the day. Clear conditions and a decoupling atmosphere should allow for temperatures to fall considerably on Thursday night into the 50s with some upper 40s here and there, mainly NE OH and NW PA. The surface high pressure will shift east for Friday and return flow back into the region will allow for temperatures to climb back into the 80s. The return flow will also allow for better moisture to return with 60 degree dew points returning by evening. Shower and thunderstorm activity upstream will start to enter the region on Friday night. While the atmosphere will have more moisture to work with by Friday night, a stabilizing air mass with nightfall will allow for just some scattered convection with minimal concerns.

A cold front with a supporting upper trough will move through the region on Saturday and allow for widespread chances of showers and thunderstorms. The intensity of convection will be based mainly on the timing, which at this point could be during the afternoon hours, so storms could have some punch with them. Temperatures before any showers and storms on Saturday could rise into the upper 80s and perhaps give 90 degrees a brief tap, if the system slows up a bit.
The trend for Sunday into Monday will be dry with high pressure building back into the region and temperatures will remain slightly below normal with the cooler air mass in place behind the cold front.

AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/
Low confidence TAF through the period with respect to SHRA/TSRA potential, although the first six hours should be VFR as decaying precip and high cloud prevail across the terminals.
Generally VFR expected overnight with dry candidness, although low chances for SHRA/TSRA are possible around/after 00Z at KYNG and KERI, but chances too low for TAF mention. SHRA/TSRA activity may pick up after 12Z but will more likely be confined to just beyond this forecast period in the 18Z Wed to 03Z Thu timeframe. Gusty south winds to generally 25 kts over the first 6 hours will subside a bit after 00Z, becoming more southwest overnight. Winds become west/northwest near the end of the period at western terminals as a cold front moves into the area.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms today and Wednesday. Non-VFR possible again in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

High pressure will continue to the east of the region today and return flow with south to southwest winds behind a warm front will persist across the lake. The pressure gradient and surface winds will increase later this morning and into the afternoon as a storm complex enters from the northwest and will allow for winds of 20-25 kt for a 6-8 hour period. Believe the 20 kt sustained mark gets to about Cleveland and have extended the Small Craft Advisory east. The window for stronger winds is later than previously forecasted and have a later end time to encapsulate the entire event. Showers and storms will be possible across the basin today and tonight and convective marine headlines will be possible. A cold front will cross the lake on Wednesday and flow will become northwest. The pressure gradient over the lake does not look impressive enough to have substantial northwest flow to allow for a great increase in waves. Flow will become lighter and northerly with high pressure on Thursday. Southeast flow returns to the lake on Friday with a warm front lifting across the region, as high pressure moves east. A cold front will cross the lake on Saturday. Southwest flow will increase ahead of the feature and could approach the need for a headline.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>146.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
45164 13 mi52 minWSW 19G23 71°F 70°F3 ft
45207 23 mi32 minS 14G21 73°F 74°F2 ft29.8065°F
45206 25 mi32 minS 16G23 72°F 74°F1 ft29.7866°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 25 mi52 minSSW 19G28 74°F 75°F29.8365°F
45176 27 mi42 minSSW 23G27 71°F 73°F2 ft29.8166°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 28 mi52 minSSW 4.1G9.9 71°F 73°F29.85
45205 30 mi32 min18G25 71°F 74°F1 ft29.8065°F
45196 31 mi52 minS 16G21 71°F 73°F1 ft29.8766°F
45204 37 mi32 minSW 21G27 74°F1 ft
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 38 mi82 minSW 9.9G18
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 42 mi92 minSSW 14G16 71°F 73°F2 ft29.9166°F
LORO1 42 mi82 minSSW 8.9G13 69°F
45132 - Port Stanley 44 mi52 minS 23G27 69°F 69°F5 ft29.73
45208 47 mi32 minWSW 16G23 76°F 73°F1 ft29.8065°F
ASBO1 47 mi52 minSSW 11G14

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KLNN LAKE COUNTY EXECUTIVE,OH 24 sm16 minSSW 11G1610 smMostly Cloudy72°F64°F78%29.82
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Wind History graph: CGF
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Cleveland, OH,

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