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LEZ166 Expires:202312012115;;714524 Fzus61 Kcle 011457 Glfle
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 957 am est Fri dec 1 2023
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis.. A front has stalled northwest of the lake. Low pressure 29.70 inches will move northeast along the front and pass northeast of the lake by Saturday. Another low 29.70 inches will move across the lake on Sunday and extend a cold front across the lake. A trough averaging 29.80 inches will remain across the lake on Monday. A ridge averaging 29.90 inches will be over the lake on Tuesday.
lez061-165>169-012115- ripley to buffalo ny extending from 5nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- vermilion to avon point oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- avon point to willowick oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-willowick to geneva-on-the- lake oh beyond 5nm off shoreline to us-canadian border-geneva-on- the-lake to conneaut oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- conneaut oh to ripley ny beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- 957 am est Fri dec 1 2023
This afternoon..South winds 10 to 20 knots becoming southeast 5 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely Sunday night. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 6 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 011526 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1026 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

SYNOPSIS
A series of low pressure systems will impact the Lower Great Lakes region into early next week. The first system will arrive Friday into Saturday, followed by another for Sunday into Monday. A final low pressure will move east across the region on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Light rain has filled in across the area and is expected to continue into early this afternoon before starting to see some breaks working in from the southwest. Drier air is noted on water vapor imagery already across western Ohio and will expand to northeast Ohio by evening. Low levels are expected to remain saturated with light isentropic ascent into tonight contributing to lingering drizzle.

Previous Discussion... A low pressure system evident on satellite imagery across the Missouri Valley early this morning will move northeast into the Lower Great Lakes region later today. Ahead of this system, isentropic ascent will lead to a several-hour period of steady rain across the area, especially later this morning, with rain first beginning in the southwest portion of the area, then spreading northeast towards Cleveland and Erie, PA by early afternoon. Rain will become more scattered and lighter in intensity by mid- afternoon as the more steady rain exits northeast of the area. However, anticipate that these scattered rain showers/areas of drizzle may linger throughout much of the evening and overnight hours as widespread weak lift combined with abundantly-moist low levels remain in place.

Heading into Saturday, the mid-levels begin to dry out, although given the moist upper and lower levels, seeder-feeder processes could result in periodic light rain showers and/or drizzle throughout the day. At the very minimum, we're looking at another overcast day for Saturday.

Near-average temperatures are expected for Friday in the mid-40s under abundant cloud cover. Slightly higher temperatures are possible for Saturday as weak warm air advection spreads northeast into the region with highs reaching the low 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The forecast area will be behind a low pressure system on Saturday night and there will be a lull in rain chances to start the short term period. The tough part of the Saturday night forecast will be the temperatures as the next surface low will be quickly knocking on the door for Sunday and a warm front will enter and temperatures may slightly cool as the warm front battles the diurnal cycle for lows.
The aforementioned low and supporting upper trough will enter fully for Sunday and have PoPs increasing through the day to categorical with widespread rain showers by the afternoon. The main low will exit on Sunday night but a larger upper trough will be stationed across the forecast area for Monday and allow for continued lift with a westerly lake fetch into NE OH and NW PA. Will keep some higher PoPs across the eastern portion of the area with some chance PoPs elsewhere. Some ridging will try and enter Monday night and will back off on PoPs for a brief period. Temperatures will be slightly below normal for the weekend into next week.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
There appears to be more consistency in the extended guidance for the forecast for the middle of next week. A positively-tilted upper trough will target the Great Lakes region and extend a weak low through the region. A warm front will try to enter the region on Tuesday, but the trough and the surface low will likely enter too soon to get it through the area. Rain will be the most favored precipitation type with this system on Tuesday. The system will pass through by Wednesday and there could be some transition to snow with cold air advection behind the system on Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, there appears to be plenty of dry air surging behind the low and any snow would be short lived. Precipitation chances on Thursday are trending down with the more consistent timing of the mid-week low and the entrance of surface ridging later in the week and can see the Thursday forecast becoming completely dry with later forecast cycles. Temperatures through the period will be slightly colder than normal but nothing far off for the first week of December.

AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/
Mainly VFR across the TAF sites early this morning with widespread deterioration to MVFR and IFR from low ceilings and rain later this morning and afternoon. Rain will spread northeast across the area this morning into the afternoon with mainly MVFR vsbys expected. Took out the IFR tempo groups for this morning/early afternoon as rain intensity appears weaker than previously forecast. Ceilings should remain low- end MVFR (~1kft) with the initial batch of rain, dropping to IFR and perhaps LIFR later in the afternoon and evening. MVFR and/or IFR vsbys are likely to remain as lingering rain becomes drizzle/mist.
Did not include IFR ceilings at ERI as weak downsloping should keep ceilings slightly higher.

Winds are generally from the south to southwest early this morning, 5 to 10 knots with a few isolated gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible ahead of the rain this morning. Winds will gradually shift more towards the south, then eventually back towards the southwest around 10 knots towards the end of the period.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected Friday night through Tuesday in low ceilings and/or periodic rain showers.

MARINE
A stalling front lies northwest of Lake Erie over southern Lower Michigan this morning and south to southwest flow over the lake is weakening early this morning. There could be a brief increase in the southerly winds today with precipitation entering the region and some mixing to the lake surface. A low pressure system will move across the lake tonight into Saturday and disrupt flow over the basin until Saturday night when a southeasterly direction will finally be favored. The changing wind directions will be destructive toward wave development during this time. Another low pressure system will move near/northwest of the lake on Sunday and southwest to west flow will pick up across the lake and waves should build over the eastern half of the lake. If the track remains northwest of the lake, there should be enough wind and wave build up present to allow for a Small Craft Advisory headline. Some ridging will enter from the southwest for Monday and northwest flow will be favored but colder conditions over the lake will allow for some lake effect processes to be present and there could still be some enhanced onshore flow. Another low will target the region for Tuesday and Wednesday and southerly flow will return ahead of the system before shifting northwest behind it. It is too early to say if any marine headlines will be needed at this time.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

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