DISCUSSION
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

High pressure remains centered over the Great Lakes this afternoon, resulting in sunny skies and temps slightly below normal for late July. The high will gradually shift east on Saturday, with max temps into the mid 80s under increasing high- level clouds.

An elongated upper-level trough extending from southeast Texas through the Lower Mississippi River Valley will drift northward toward the Upper Mississippi River Valley through Sunday while drawing a moisture-rich airmass into the region. Scattered showers and diurnally enhanced thunderstorms are expected to spread across much of the area Sunday amid weak to modest mid- level lapse rates and minimal low-level capping. Locally enhanced forcing within a coupled weakly upper-jet structure combined with the higher PWAT airmass could support a narrow swath of 1"+ rainfall Sunday afternoon.

A weak trough over the central Great Plains will phase with the aforementioned trough on Monday. By this time, increasing lapse rates and low-level moisture will yield another window of scattered and diurnally enhanced showers and storms Monday afternoon and evening. While severe convection is not currently expected, favorable thermodynamic profiles within a weakly sheared environment could support pulsing convection with strong wind gusts.

Guidance remains generally in agreement with a broad, low- amplitude ridge building across the central CONUS Monday through Thursday, though there has been a weakening trend with the ridge over the past couple days. A weak cold front may stall over or just south and west of the forecast area late Tuesday into Thursday on the periphery of persistent steep mid-level lapse rates over the region. This puts the area in the vicinity of a weak ring-of-fire pattern with at least a couple periods of convection expected during the week. However, timing out these episodes can be difficult to impossible this far out. Either way, seasonably warm and humid conditions with heat index values well into the 90s to perhaps locally 100F appear likely mid to late week.

Kluber

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

No forecast concerns for the terminals as high pressure will remain in place through the period. Therefore, expect clear skies and generally light winds in the 5 to 10 kt range. Though wind directions will transition from easterly this afternoon to south-southeasterly Saturday morning.

Yack

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.