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LMZ741 Expires:202311282215;;556887 Fzus53 Klot 281842 Nshlot
nearshore marine forecast national weather service chicago/romeoville il issued by national weather service lincoln il 1242 pm cst Tue nov 28 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz740>745-282215- winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il- wilmette harbor to northerly island il- northerly island to calumet harbor il- calumet harbor il to gary in-gary to burns harbor in- burns harbor to michigan city in- 1242 pm cst Tue nov 28 2023
Rest of today..West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming west 15 to 20 kt. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft.

LMZ700
No data

FXUS63 KLOT 281751 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL Issued by National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1151 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

SHORT TERM
Issued at 237 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Through Wednesday...

Key Message...
- Unseasonably cold today then moderating for Wednesday

Shallow stratus beneath a 4kft inversion has persisted into the early morning hours. Efficient snowflake production within the DGZ has also allowed flurries and light snow showers to continue.
However, upstream erosion of the cloud cover is becoming more apparent as the inversion lowers through the remaining saturated cloud depth from west to east. A window of mostly sunny skies is expected for much of the morning before increasing mid and upper- level cloud cover spreads into the area this afternoon and evening with a moisture-starved wave currently over eastern North Dakota.

After a brief pause in mid-level height rises with the weak wave noted above, low-amplitude ridging will build into the Ohio River Valley by Wednesday. Modest westerly low-level flow and mostly clear skies will result in a notable moderation of temps to near normal levels by Wednesday afternoon.

Kluber

LONG TERM
Issued at 237 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Wednesday night through Monday...

Key messages:

- Increasing rain chances late Thursday night/Friday, especially areas generally along and south of I-80. Uncertainty with northward extent of precipitation chances into far northern/northwestern IL remains. Accordingly, the potential exists for dry conditions across NW Illinois.

- Additional waves of precipitation possible (at times) this weekend into early next week.

The period will begin dry with seasonal temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday. However, forecast attention will quickly be turning to the next stout southern stream wave expected to eject out across the Texas Panhandle during the day on Thursday, and eventually out across the Mid-Mississippi Valley early Friday morning. As it does so, strongly diffluent upper level flow is expected to foster a broad east-northeastward advancing precipitation shield from the Ozarks late Thursday, into the Ohio Valley late into Friday. The expected track is such that there is likely to be a rather sharp gradient in precipitation potential along it's northern/northwestern periphery. So, while forecast confidence continues to increase in cold a soaking rain late Thursday into Friday for southern sections of the LOT CWA and points south and east, uncertainty remains with the northward extent of the precipitation shield into the Rockford and Chicago metro areas into Friday morning. Another potential complicating factor is that there could end up being a narrow corridor along the northern/northwestern flank of the precipitation shield in which profiles become supportive of wet snow Thursday night into Friday morning. With this still being a few days away, we continue to run with the blended POPs offered up by the NBM. This generally results in 60% + probabilities of rain across southern sections of the area (south of I-80), dropping to only 10-20% near the WI state line.

Friday night onward, a fast and active upper level flow pattern will continue across the region. This is likely to steer several additional disturbances in our direction. While significant ensemble spread exists at this timescale the larger scale pattern will be supportive of additional precipitation chances at times this weekend into early next week. Temperatures through the period look to remain seasonal, with highs in the lower 40s.

KJB

AVIATION
For the 18Z TAFs...

Surface winds will gyrate between west and southwest through the TAF period as a surface ridge axis pushes across northern Illinois. Low-level wind profiles will increase into the overnight period as the surface pressure gradient tightens below a strengthening 40 kt low-level jet. While there is a signal for low-level wind shear around 2 kft AGL, the marginal and transient nature of it was enough to keep it out of this round of TAFs.

NWS Chicago

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
Gary to Michigan City IN until noon Tuesday.

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