Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Girard, PA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
A deepening upper level trough with a nearly vertically stacked low pressure is expected to meander east throughout the near term period, allowing for multiple chances of precipitation. Currently, this low pressure is extending a warm front across portion of Lake Erie, with the far eastern edge sagging south across far NE OH. This boundary will continue to lift north this morning as a weak cold front/shortwave trough pushes east into late morning. Overall forcing with the boundaries themselves is weak, however the atmosphere is still primed for the potential of severe weather, with the caveat being any storm would have to break the strong CAP to develop. Mesoanalysis suggests 1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE across the area with DCAPE values of 1000-1200 J/kg. In addition, an area of deep moisture convergence remains present over far NE OH and NW PA.
With all that being said, there remains a non-zero chance of isolated severe weather across far NE OH and NW PA over the next couple hours. Primary concern will remain gusty winds, although small hail cannot be ruled out.

By late morning, the aforementioned weak cold front will settle just south of the area, allowing for skies to become mostly sunny. Clear skies mixed with WAA will allow temperatures to climb into the low to mid 80s, possible feeling a tad warmer with dewpoints lingering in the upper 50s to low 60s. The stalled boundary will again lift north as another warm front this evening, followed by a stronger cold front late tonight into Saturday morning. These frontal passages will have better overall synoptic support with them as the center of the low moves across the northern Great Lakes. With clearing skies and a moist environment, decent destabilization is expected this afternoon with hi-res models suggesting 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE and around 50-55 knots of bulk shear. Even with the atmosphere being primed with basic ingredients for convection, there remains a bit of uncertainty on how far north the airmass will destabilize to that extent and in regards to how much CIN will develop with the transition to a less diurnally favorable timing, similar to what happened this past night. Taking into account all the variables, SPC has highlighted much of the area in a Day 1 Slight Risk, with the exception of far NE OH and NW PA which remain in a Marginal Risk. Primary concern will be strong, damaging winds but isolated large hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
This severe potential will be highly dependent on how the atmosphere changes over the next several hours. In addition, heavy rainfall associated with strong thunderstorms will pose a local flood risk, especially in poor drainage or low lying areas and as a result WPC has issued a Day 1 ERO for the entire area. Please stay weather aware today and have ways to receive warnings at night as this may turn into an overnight event. Temperatures tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s.

On Saturday, showers should gradually diminish from west to east as the cold front push east and a surface trough lingers over the area.
Enough wrap around moisture associated with the low in southern Ontario/Quebec will allow for rain showers to persist across the eastern portion of the CWA through Saturday, before drying out Saturday night. Much cooler temperatures arrive on Saturday behind the departing front, with highs only climbing into the low to mid 60s. In addition, gusty winds of 20-25 mph have the potential for temperatures to feel a bit cooler than that.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Upper level low continues its exit to the east with a few lingering cold air advection showers over the far northeastern zones aided by weak surface and upper level troughs. POPs gone by 00Z Sunday, but the general troughing over the southern Great Lakes will persist through Sunday with some degree of cloud cover with low level moisture that is still refusing to relinquish its grip on the region. This period of northerly surface winds, 500mb heights and 850mb temperatures slow to recover, and varying cloud cover will support a cooler stretch of weather that will push into the long term period with temperatures that will be around 10 degrees below normal. Low end POPs return late Monday with the approach of a warm front from the southwest for the southwestern zones of the CWA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Upper level ridging has built in across the eastern portion of CONUS bringing mild and dry weather to the start of the long term period.
The next upper level trough will be developing across the Rockies late Monday into Tuesday and will bring unsettled weather during the middle of the week. The accompanying surface low will be entering the region by Wednesday moving eastward across the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. There may be sufficient CAPE and instability come Wednesday evening into Thursday morning where a few thunderstorms could be possible across the region. As the surface low slowly departs out to the east, precipitation will be slow to depart as well and should expect periodic showers with the wrap around moisture to occur through the end of the period. Temperatures for next week are trending to be slightly below average with highs in the mid to low 60s and lows in the upper 40s.

AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/
Predominately VFR conditions should persist through much of this TAF period as the entire area lingers in the warm sector of a low pressure centered over the north central US. Initial thoughts earlier this evening were that a MCS was going to surge east across the area, however all of the convection has remained north of the area across Michigan. As a result, there was a large shift in the TAF forecast with limited gusts and thunderstorms now expected. Opted to maintain a TEMPO for heavy rainfall and a few rumbles of thunder over the next couple hours, however this may be a stretch given the strengthening CAP over the area.

By Friday daybreak, any lingering showers and thunderstorms will push east of the area allowing for clearing skies and winds 10-12 knots from the southwest throughout today. Tonight, another round of convection is possible between the 00-06Z Saturday time frame, although confidence remains low given the poor handling of ongoing convection in recent model guidance.
Opted to handle this potential with PROB30. There may be a brief period of non-VFR conditions, but will need to monitor model trends in the coming hours. Winds gusts will ramp up near the end of this TAF period as a cold front approaches from the west and strengthens the gradient across the area.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are possible through Saturday.

MARINE
West to southwesterly flow at 10-15 knots is expected across the lake for the majority of the day Friday before the winds start to back overnight to be predominantly out of the south. Waves between 1- 3 feet are expected during through Saturday morning. During the day Saturday, the winds will veer becoming westerly and increasing to 15- 20 knots across the lake with as a low pressure system moves across the Northern Great Lakes into Eastern Canada. Waves will build to 4- 8 feet throughout the day into Sunday before subsiding in the late evening. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for most of the day Saturday through Sunday afternoon for primarily points east of the Islands.

As the low pressure pushes off eastward, winds and waves will begin to subside and become west to northwesterly at 10-15 knots and waves 1-3 feet. Winds will becoming primarily northerly Monday morning as high pressure and ridging builds over the region and then veer to be northeasterly through Tuesday. Waves will be less than 3 feet during this time period.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.