Province, MA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Province, MA


September 23, 2023 3:29 AM EDT (07:29 UTC)
Sunrise 6:27AM   Sunset 6:38PM   Moonrise  3:26PM   Moonset 12:00AM 

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 101 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
Rest of tonight..E winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
Sat night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain likely.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Mon and Mon night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue and Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed and Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 101 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Area of low pressure moves over the coastal waters tomorrow and tomorrow night. This will bring gale force northeast winds to the coastal waters and seas building as high as 11 feet off the south coast. High pressure builds down from canada early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Province, MA
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 230543 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 143 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will bring dry and seasonable conditions today.
Then a pattern change this weekend into Monday, with periods of rain, gusty northeast winds and cooler than normal temperatures, as a subtropical low tracks south of New England. A trend toward drier weather should arrive later Monday into Tuesday and then persist much of next week. Cooler than normal temperatures linger into Monday and Tuesday, then modifying Wednesday and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
930 PM Update

Forecast remains on track so far this evening. Only made some minor tweaks to the near-term forecast to reflect latest trends and observations. See previous discussion for more details on tonight's forecast.

Previous discussion:

Pretty tranquil evening despite an increasing canopy of cirrus clouds, in an onshore flow regime given high pressure over the Maine seacoast. While satellite pics show some patches of stratus in the E flow across Nantucket, the vast majority of stratus remains well south of SNE.

Will continue to see increasing cloudiness but it should be of the mid to high cloud variety, greater coverage south than further north. With that said, window of opportunity for development of radiation fog in northern MA and the northern reach of the MA portion of the CT River given lesser amts of cloud cover and where NE winds project to be the lightest. NE wind speeds should gradually increase as we move into the early morning hrs, especially south of the Mass Pike. However despite rising PWAT values, dry weather is expected tonight with earliest onset of rain not starting at Nantucket until after sunrise.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
Tomorrow...

Rain ahead of Tropical Storm Ophelia arrives in the morning first from the south coast and reaching northern MA by late afternoon.
There has been considerable model disagreement with the northerly extent of heavy rain fall due to a ridge axis set up across southern New England. Because of this, there will likely be a sharp cut off in QPF. The best chance for moderate to heavy rain and QPF greater then 1 inch looks to be across SE MA and RI where areas north may only see light rain with QPF less then 1 inch. highs will stay below average only in the low 60s due to rain and thick cloud cover. It will be quite breezy during the day with winds gusting 20 to 25mph inland and 30 to 40mph over the Cape Cod and the Islands.

Tomorrow night...

Tropical Storm Ophelia transitions to a post tropical depression and begins to weaken overnight Saturday over the Washington DC area.
Moderate to heavy rain is still most likely across SE MA and RI where areas north likely see only light to moderate rain. Winds remains elevated overnight gusting 20 to 25mph inland and 25 to 35mph over Cape Cod and the Islands. Overnight lows only drop into the low to mid 50s with low cloud cover expected to stick around overnight.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Highlights:

* Mainly cloudy, cool and breezy Sun and Mon with rain mainly south of the Mass Pike and especially near the South Coast, gradually shifting southward. Rain amts on the lighter side.

* High pressure building southward brings tranquil weather Tue thru Fri with seasonable temps.

Details:

Sunday and Monday:

A bit more solution spread in model forecasts for Sunday and Monday which leads to reduced confidence in how long rain from Saturday may linger. More specifically the GFS is now depicting a shutout entirely for Sun and Mon, suppressing rain well south of the South Coast and into the southern waters. Did note that in its GFS ensemble member solutions that there are now fewer members which show rain. On the other side is the ECMWF, which has the benefit of continuity and it keeps at least a steady light to at times moderate wind-driven rains for areas south of the Mass Pike, with lesser amts north; unfortunately its ensemble membership shows a considerable number of its members still showing rain for Sunday and Monday. The Canadian GEM is something of a middle ground solution between GFS and ECMWF. So there is now two pretty distinct camps of outcomes which leads to the reduced confidence in how Sunday and Monday shake out, with the ECMWF showing a far more pessimistic outlook while the GFS shows a cloudy but mainly dry Sunday and Monday. Given the stated uncertainty and that the GFS is quite a continuity change from its prior run(s), we opted for the middle ground outcome for now closer to the Canadian GEM, which still shows lighter rains south of the Mass Pike for Sunday into Monday; with lesser chances north for both days.

Still think both days are cloudier than not, even if the drier GFS scenario ultimately plays out, with a continued NE breeze which will also keep temperatures in a narrow diurnal range, with highs in the lower to mid 60s and lows in the 50s.

Tuesday through Friday:

Height pattern aloft turns rather convoluted, slow-evolving and blocky for mid to late in the week. Surface pattern for much of New England looks governed by a strong 1028-1030 mb high pressure of Canadian origin that builds southward each day. In turn, this looks to suppress more active/unsettled weather to south of the mid-Atlc coastal waters. We do have to watch for some of this unsettled weather to return back northward toward late next week, but this portion of the forecast seems quite favorable and overall tranquil with onshore NE/E flow bringing temps around or just below seasonable levels.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Through 12z...

Patchy MVFR cigs from south coast to SE MA, otherwise VFR.

Today...Moderate confidence.

MVFR cigs expanding northward to near the Mass Pike in the afternoon, with IFR developing across RI/SE MA. Mainly VFR cigs interior northern and western MA. Rain lifts north from the south coast in the morning, reaching Mass Pike region in the afternoon, but uncertain how far north into northern MA rain gets. Locally heavy rainfall possible Cape/Islands this afternoon. NE gusts to 25 kt developing along the south coast in the afternoon, up to 30 kt over the Islands.

Tonight...Moderate confidence

MVFR/IFR conditions with areas of rain and drizzle. NE gusts 20-25 kt south coast and 25-30 kt over the Islands in the evening, then diminishing overnight.

Sunday...Moderate confidence.

Mainly MVFR conditions with areas of IFR. Another round of rain/showers likely overspreading the region from SW.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in trends, moderate on timing.
Should remain VFR through the morning, then lowering to MVFR in the afternoon as rain overspreads the region. Uncertainty on northern extent of IFR cigs but kept these lower cigs to the south.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in trends, moderate on timing. VFR in the morning lowering to MVFR in the afternoon as rain overspreads the region.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA.

Monday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA.

Monday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Increasing E/ENE winds and building seas through Saturday, especially on all southern waters. Small craft advisories take effect tonight on southern waters as seas will build to near or above 5 ft. We then expect a period of gale-force gusts on these same waters starting Sat AM into Sat evening, with gale warnings in effect. Seas on Sat will continue to build to around 6-10 ft on the offshore southern waters and around 4-7 ft nearshore. Mariners traversing the southern nearshore and outer waters Sat can expect pretty difficult marine conditions given gale force NE gusts, building rough seas and rain, becoming heavy at times.

Further north into the eastern waters, conditions begin fairly tranquil with NE gusts around 15 kt and seas 2-4 ft. NE gusts look to remain just below small craft levels at around low-20s kt range on Sat, although seas look to build to around 5-7 ft on the outer waters later Sat night. We opted to refrain from SCAs at this time given some uncertainty when we'll see those conditions set in on Sat, but SCAs seem likely to be needed at least for Sat evening/night, if not potentially sooner.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely.

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Monday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 7 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 7 ft.

Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ232>235-237-255-256.
Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ232>235-237-255-256.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ236-254.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 16 mi50 min E 12G16 60°F 64°F30.3552°F
44090 18 mi60 min 60°F 65°F2 ft
CHTM3 22 mi60 min E 15G17 60°F 66°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 36 mi50 min E 18G21 61°F 69°F30.3155°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 37 mi105 min E 4.1 58°F 30.3351°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 40 mi50 min E 9.7G14 60°F 64°F30.3551°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 46 mi60 min 60°F 69°F30.32
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 49 mi60 min E 13G18 60°F 67°F30.32

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Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KPVC PROVINCETOWN MUNI,MA 10 sm33 minE 0510 smOvercast57°F52°F82%30.36
KCQX CHATHAM MUNI,MA 21 sm37 minE 0910 smMostly Cloudy63°F50°F63%30.34

Wind History from PVC
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Cape Cod Lighthouse, SE of, Cape Cod, Massachusetts
   
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Cape Cod Lighthouse
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Sat -- 06:03 AM EDT     6.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:03 PM EDT     1.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:16 PM EDT     7.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Cape Cod Lighthouse, SE of, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, Tide feet
12
am
0.7
1
am
1.4
2
am
2.6
3
am
4
4
am
5.3
5
am
6.3
6
am
6.7
7
am
6.4
8
am
5.4
9
am
4.1
10
am
2.9
11
am
1.9
12
pm
1.4
1
pm
1.9
2
pm
3.2
3
pm
4.7
4
pm
6
5
pm
7.2
6
pm
7.8
7
pm
7.6
8
pm
6.6
9
pm
5.2
10
pm
3.6
11
pm
2.1



Tide / Current for Provincetown, Massachusetts
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Provincetown
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Sat -- 06:07 AM EDT     7.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:09 PM EDT     1.58 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:21 PM EDT     9.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Provincetown, Massachusetts, Tide feet
12
am
0.7
1
am
1.4
2
am
2.8
3
am
4.5
4
am
6
5
am
7.3
6
am
7.9
7
am
7.6
8
am
6.4
9
am
4.9
10
am
3.5
11
am
2.2
12
pm
1.6
1
pm
2
2
pm
3.5
3
pm
5.3
4
pm
7
5
pm
8.4
6
pm
9.3
7
pm
9.1
8
pm
8
9
pm
6.2
10
pm
4.4
11
pm
2.6




Weather Map
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Boston, MA,



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