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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi- 342 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Gusts up to 30 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Gusts up to 30 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast 10 knots or less. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain showers likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 49 degrees and at michigan city is 47 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 291042 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 542 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 256 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

After a cold start today with temperatures in the teens, temperatures warm into the thirties and forties today and into the forties and fifties on Thursday. Rain arrives later Thursday into Thursday night and continues through Friday. After a brief reprieve in the rain on Saturday, chances for rain return Saturday night and continue, at times, into the next work week.

SHORT TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 256 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

With the high pressure center to our southeast, the warm advection setup has been able to take over and the lake effect snow has subsided with southwesterly winds taking over. One final shortwave pushes out of the area resembling the backside of the departing trough today. Despite the warm advection occurring, the near-surface boundary layer was able to crater in the mid teens last evening before slowly rising after midnight. As such, we'll still start the day cold with temps in the upper teens to low 20s and a breeze up to around 20 mph resulting in another instance of single digit wind chills. Be sure to bundle up if there is a need to be outside this morning. Temperatures do look to recover further, especially when compared to yesterday, reaching the 30s. With the snow cover, wouldn't be surprised to see these temperatures slightly on the lower side due to snow's albedo. Additionally, the SREF seems keen on creating fog with a 70 percent chance of VISBY less than 1 inch this evening, which is something to keep in mind, but that also seems harder to do with dew points in the upper 20s in this warm advection setup. Will consider this forecast without the fog potential for now.

Despite 850 mb temperatures warming back above freezing Thursday night, the near-surface boundary appears able to drop back below freezing tonight in spite of sustained winds remaining active overnight at around 10 to 20 mph.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

High pressure in the southeast and a trough ejecting out of the southwestern US with a trough moving through south-central Canada allows a theta-e plume to approach the area Thursday. It is interesting to see the NAM/GEM hold off precipitation until after 00z whereas the GFS/ECMWF seem intent on bring precipitation in during the afternoon and evening time frame. This first batch of precipitation seems entirely tied to warm advection and with minimal forcing at the onset, which leads me to lean towards the later arrival time.

Friday's chance for precipitation still brings a higher ceiling to potential precipitation output (either side of 0.5 inch) than does Thursday's precipitation (likely around or less than 0.1 inch), but there's still quite a bit of spread on storm track owing to the eventual placement of the boundary across the area. The NAM suite appears much quicker than the rest with the GFS kind of a happier mean between the NAM, the slower GEM suite, and the farther southeast ECMWF. Although the QPF from the ECMWF is farther north, slightly removed from the low pressure track, likely owing to its large scale ascent placement. One thing to watch with this setup will be, with the high pressure so close to the northwestern side of the low pressure center, there could be some snow mixing in on its northwestern side, wherever the front ends up eventually. There is a shortwave that moves through Friday night into Saturday that may help push additional precipitation on the back end of this low as well into Saturday morning.

An active period of shortwaves ejecting either out of the southwest or northwest takes over for the weekend into next week. One such wave approaches the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, but it currently looks to stay mostly rain though. Best moisture and lift appear to situate themselves closer to Lake MI, which was also evident in yesterday's guidance. Yet another shortwave moves through the area Sunday night into Monday with rain and potentially some snow to mix in at times as it wraps cold air in on its backside.
Then, a wave of Canadian origin drops down bringing cold air with it for Tuesday. System snow or lake effect snow could result from that.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 542 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

5 kft cloud deck will exit quickly this morning as midlevel shortwave exits and ridge builds over the region. Dry air throughout the column will ensure VFR conditions through the evening. There is some nonzero chance of fog/stratus late tonight/early Thu given strong WAA over cold ground and some residual snow
However
vast majority of guidance maintains VFR conditions and will hold with that for now. SW winds will gust up to 20-25 kts today given strong gradient and decent mixing.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LMZ043.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ046.

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