Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stevensville, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 324 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A very challenging forecast is in store over the next couple of days as the active pattern continues. The focus for this package will reside on the next 24 to 36 hours with minimal changes or discussion on later periods.While CAMs vary considerably on evolution of convection through tonight there is 2 general areas to keep an eye on for both a severe threat and possibly a heavy rain threat.

Skies have generally cleared out behind the morning area of showers and storms, allowing for destabilization across the area (SPC Meso indicating SBCAPE of 1500-2500 j/kg with higher levels to the west).
18Z soundings from KILX and KDVN show a powder keg waiting with a strong cap/EML to be overcome.

Our first area of concern will be storms that fire most likely in central IL, but could also start along/south of US-24 along a remnant outflow from this mornings convection. Plenty of shear and steep lapse rates will result in rapid intensification of the storms which then move generally east with time. Large hail would be the main threat, but strong winds and possibly some tornado concerns are in play as well. The window for this looks to be from 20Z to maybe 2Z. SWOMCD #422 goes into greater detail on concerns. Have went with chc pops for now in the south until we see how the convection sets up. Heavy rain would also be a concern with plenty of moisture in place.

Focus then shifts to expected rapid storm development somewhere in the NE IA/NW IL area in the near future. Specifics can be found in SWOMCD #419 highlighting an eventual Tornado watch as far east as the Chicago area. It is this activity that will become our concern late this evening into the overnight hours with CAMs all over the place on the handling of it. Sufficient signals do exist for the northern third to half of the area most likely in the crosshairs of 1 or 2 batches of storms and an increased threat for severe weather and heavy rainfall. SPC upgraded locations N of US-6 earlier today to Enhanced with all modes possible (trending towards damaging winds with time). The copious amount of rainfall expected could cause a greater overall flood concern than the south given a longer potential duration. A Flood Watch was issued earlier for the northern half of the area where confidence in cover and intensity is greater. That does NOT mean southern areas are not at risk for flooding concerns. WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook placed the entire area in a Slight risk to highlight the concerns.

Limited changes have been made into Wednesday and Wednesday night as final evolution and impacts of overnight convection may dictate later chances. SPC has the area in a Marginal Risk for severe storms, with the focus likely being the afternoon or evening hours. Hydro concerns could also be there (hence the watch in effect through 8 pm Wed.

A trough moves through with renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms. The severe threat doesn't appear to be as high at this point (Marginal risk for the time being), but something to watch. The trough will quickly exit with an increasing SW flow behind it again as a much deeper trough moved across the Plains are into the area this weekend. Additional severe storms appear possible Saturday with DY6 outlook placing a 15% prob for severe over the area. Behind the front, a shot of colder air and gusty winds arrives for Sunday and Monday as highs drop into the 50s (some 40s?) before moderation starts.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1243 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

An outflow boundary, depicted on satellite as the interface of mid- level cirrus and sprouting fair-weather cumulus, will be the focus for isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon.
These storms may drift into KFWA near 00z. Not enough confidence in this scenario to move beyond PROB30. Additional TSRA, likely in a weakening state, is anticipated later in the period as a line storms drops southeast from MI. MVFR ceilings may linger beyond daybreak Wednesday.

At KSBN, greater confidence in the timing of TSRA there which does pose a gusty wind threat. This will need to be monitored.
Additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible near daybreak Wednesday as activity departs Illinois.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening through Wednesday evening for INZ005>009-012-014-103-104-116-203- 204-216.
OH...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Wednesday evening for OHZ001-002-004-005.
MI...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Wednesday evening for MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...None.