Friday, January22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Estral Beach, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:52AMSunset 5:36PM Friday January 22, 2021 5:49 PM EST (22:49 UTC) Moonrise 12:48PMMoonset 2:24AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0057.000000t0000z-201115t1715z/ 1150 Am Est Sun Nov 15 2020
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. However a gale warning remains in effect. Boaters and mariners should continue to refer to the latest marine weather messages for the latest information. Lat...lon 4172 8347 4173 8345 4173 8350 4177 8350 4196 8328 4202 8323 4202 8324 4205 8319 4205 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 time...mot...loc 1648z 233deg 42kt 4197 8303
LCZ423 Expires:202011151659;;883356 FZUS73 KDTX 151650 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1150 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 LCZ423-LEZ444-151659-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estral Beach, MI
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location: 42.02, -83.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 221958 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 258 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

DISCUSSION.

Lake effect snow showers focused mainly south of M-59 will taper off to flurries and end this evening as the low level airmass dries out considerably as high pressure builds into the region from the west. Inversion heights will also drop notably into the overnight period which will further restrict the plume of lake moisture from Lake Michigan. The last of the snow showers will actually hold on over parts of the Thumb through the evening before tapering off during the overnight as banding from Lake Superior/northern Lake Michigan arc into the area over Saginaw Bay. With time, skies will also become partly cloudy which will allow temperatures to settle back into the lower teens despite a steady northwest to west wind. As the center of this high builds over the area on Saturday, expect partly cloudy skies to continue and cold conditions to remains with highs in the mid to upper 20s.

A weak shortwave impulse ejecting from a developing system over the southwest CONUS will be picked up by another northern stream wave as it pivots through the plains around the base of an upper low over central Canada. An period of isentropic ascent will arrive over the region early Sunday as the resulting trough axis shifts into the central Great Lakes. Expect light snow to expand into the region with this area of ascent, but with overall weak to modest forcing and limited moisture, generally do not expect much more than an inch of snow on average. At this time, the best lift is forecast over the northern forecast area where a few areas may over-achieve with 1 to 2 inches. This positioning would also lead to lower amounts less than an inch further south to the Michigan and Ohio state line.

The aforementioned storm system digging through California today on into the southwest CONUS this weekend will eject into the southern plains as the next Pacific shortwave crashes onshore along the west coast. This system will lift into the Ohio Valley early next week and provide the area with a chance of accumulating snow. The north to south orientation of this shortwave as it tracks into the area remains the main question as its northward progression is shunted by the central Canada upper low as it is sheared east over Ontario.

While confidence in not particularly high as of yet on how the interaction with this wave with the northern stream baroclinic zone will evolve, medium range model solutions seem to be converging on a track that supports a relatively narrow stripe of heavy snow over the northern Ohio Valley into parts of far southern lower Michigan. As was mentioned yesterday, the gradient between little/no snow and significant 4-6" or more snowfall will be very tight so small changes to the track of this system will lead to widely varying snowfall potential. Hence, the continued low confidence even knowing the system will be in close proximity to the area by late Monday/Monday night.

Once snowfall from this system winds down Tuesday morning, the remainder of the week appears to be dry as high pressure settles southeast into the Great Lakes from Canada. This high will also maintain seasonably cold conditions as highs reach the 20s to around 30 and lows dip in the teens.

MARINE.

Northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots over the Central Great Lakes this afternoon will continue into the evening, as a cold airmass is fully entrenched over the region, leading to deep mixing and snow squalls over Lake Huron. Winds could briefly reach higher values in the enhanced convergence zones. Freezing spray will also be around as temps fall into the upper teens to around 20 degrees. Winds look to be slow to diminish tonight over the marine waters, and it is possible small craft advisories for the northern tip of the Thumb region will be extended into Saturday. Will decide with the 10 PM forecast issuance.

Northwest flow will persist on Saturday, but winds will drop to 15 knots or less by the end of the day, with light and variable winds setting up Saturday evening-night as a ridge axis slides through.

Light southerly flow expected on Sunday as weak low pressure tracks through the northern Great Lakes through Sunday night. A period of light warm advection snow likely in this time frame, but visibility's probably remaining at or above 2 miles.

A much stronger low will lift into the Ohio Valley late Monday, and will lead to increasing east-northeast/onshore flow (up around 25 knots), and small craft advisories may be needed by Monday evening and continued into Tuesday. Snow will likely overspread Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair, and possibly as far north as southern third of lake Huron.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1222 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

AVIATION .

The arctic air will continue to spread over Southeast Michigan this afternoon. This has kept MVFR ceilings and snow showers going through the morning and into the early afternoon. Trends are slowly starting to improve some as the mixing layer increases, however, MVFR and low VFR ceilings will likely hold through the evening. West- northwest winds will also continue to gust into the 20-25 knot range before settling back down this evening. High pressure will begin to work eastward from the Midwest overnight and into Saturday bringing in some drier air. This will allow for clouds to slowly scatter out tonight into Saturday morning.

For DTW . There is still potential for some lower end VFR ceilings this afternoon once the snow showers diminish. Overall, ceilings will continue this afternoon before clouds begin to scatter out later this evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceilings 5000 feet or less this afternoon.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ422-443.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for LHZ421-441-442.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . SF AVIATION . SS

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 14 mi109 min WNW 15 G 17 26°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 28 mi61 min NW 11 G 16 26°F 1016.7 hPa9°F
CMPO1 34 mi79 min WNW 9.9 G 15 27°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 35 mi49 min WNW 11 G 18 22°F 1017.9 hPa (+2.7)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 40 mi61 min W 19 G 22 28°F 33°F1015.8 hPa12°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI6 mi54 minNW 12 G 1810.00 miOvercast25°F8°F50%1017.3 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI15 mi54 minNW 12 G 1710.00 miOvercast24°F5°F44%1017.6 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI17 mi56 minWNW 1310.00 miOvercast23°F8°F53%1018.2 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI24 mi56 minWNW 1410.00 miOvercast25°F9°F50%1018.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONZ

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW12
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2 days agoW6W8W8SW9W8W5W5N13N8NW10NW9NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.