Saturday, May30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Estral Beach, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 9:02PM Saturday May 30, 2020 8:15 PM EDT (00:15 UTC) Moonrise 12:46PMMoonset 1:41AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 Expires:202005291615;;940209 Fzus73 Kdtx 291519 Mwsdtx Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 1119 Am Edt Fri May 29 2020 Lcz422-423-460-lez444-291615- 1119 Am Edt Fri May 29 2020
.showers containing gusty winds approaching the waters... The areas affected include... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 1118 am edt, doppler radar indicated showers, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These showers were located along a line extending from 12 nm west of port huron to near the ambassador bridge to 19 nm west of luna pier, moving east at 35 knots. Locations impacted through 1230 pm, include... Elizabeth park marina, gibraltar, port huron, bolles harbor of refuge, woodland beach, stony point, st clair flats old channel light, detroit river light, north cape, belle isle, the ambassador bridge, new baltimore, st. Clair, luna pier, lake erie metropark harbor, algonac, grosse ile, estral beach, mt clemens harbor of refuge and Monroe harbor. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4173 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4226 8317 4233 8311 4239 8295 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8255 4302 8247 4300 8242 4261 8252 4254 8266 4237 8283 4230 8309 4205 8315 4196 8311 4172 8341
LCZ423


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estral Beach, MI
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location: 42.02, -83.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 302301 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 701 PM EDT Sat May 30 2020

AVIATION.

With a dry air mass in the mid levels, expect skies to clear with the loss of daytime heating. These conditions will persist as high pressure builds into the region. Any remaining gusts over 15 knots will also subside early this evening with winds remaining under 10 knots thereafter and backing from northwest to west to southwest over the next 24 hours or so.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 324 PM EDT Sat May 30 2020

DISCUSSION .

The initial surface ridging that developed over Southeast Michigan in post cold frontal environment late Friday has now since faded and generally expanded to the Mid Atlantic. Much stronger surface high pressure exists over the Upper Mississippi River Valley and is being forced by strong synoptic scale support of jet dynamics with confluence aloft and differential anticyclonic vorticity advection. Southeast Michigan remains sandwiched between these features at the moment, influenced by the deep polar trough that is in place from James Bay southward through Lake Huron.

Strong shortwave within broader H5 trough axis swung through the Straits to N. Lake Huron as of 18Z. Numerous showers invof of Grand Traverse Bay throughout the morning persisted due to combo of steep 900-800mb lapse rate plume, 1000-850 mb shoreline convergence, and lead edge of 1000-500mb geopotential height fall region. For the remainder of the afternoon, tail end to absolute vorticity max will settle into the remainder of Southeast Michigan with axis of lower tropospheric frontogenesis becoming organized north to south along Thumb/Lake Huron shoreline due to the difference in diabatic surface heating across land/water interface. Providing relatively greater support for shower coverage in the Thumb between 19-23Z is pool of higher 825-675mb ThetaE content that gets shoved southward in advance of +65kt midlevel jetlet. HRRR soundings corroborate with some better support for high based-low topped shower activity north of I 69/east of I 75. Increased PoPs into entry level chance late this afternoon.

Coherent midlevel anticyclone center will settle to Lake Superior tonight. Loss of depth to planetary boundary layer due to nocturnal cooling will then allow for overwhelming increase in near surface anticyclonic flow trajectories and systematic cold air advection overnight complete with requisite increase in 900-800mb static stability. A drying out of this layer will lead to extremely quiet and sunny conditions Sunday. No environmental wind in the lowest 6kft agl will yield light northwesterly winds.

Significant low to midlevel thetaE plume will advance towards Southeast Michigan from the west on Monday as southerly flow tries to bust into the state. Some uncertainty with how fast the warmer/moist midlevels will arrive. Current timing suggests Monday will remain under a more influence of the anticyclonic trajectories. However, there is some signal that enough warmth/moisture will bleed in on southerly flow to allow for some overachievement potential on moderating temperatures.

Textbook warm advection wing is forecasted to track across Lower Michigan Monday evening and Monday night. The warm advection will likely support a mature MCS type structure tracking through northern Wisconsin/U.P. during the day on Monday then for the forecast area that evening. Convective updraft strength appears limited due to lapse rates remaining at moist adiabatic with high static stability in the lowest 3.0 kft agl. Quality and depth of moisture could be impressive with PWATS spiking up toward a 1.5 inch. Most interesting aspect is the potential for a longer duration convective rain Monday night as the eastward push to the elevated warm front could be on the slower side. Will need to monitor QPF trends for Monday night.

Current model signal suggests shortwave anticyclonic gyre rolling across Southeast Michigan for a good part of Tuesday. Much warmer and more humid conditions set for Tuesday with heat indices approaching 90 degrees possible. A zonal cold front is then progged to settle due southward late Tuesday/Wednesday morning. A severe weather threat will exist conditional on timing of this cold front boundary. Also, there appears to be some potential for a boundary parallel flow that could bring a training of thunderstorm activity during this timeframe.

MARINE .

Moderate northwest flow continues through the evening before weakening late tonight. Small craft advisories are up for the Saginaw Bay due to gusts around 25kts and along the Thumb due to higher waves clipping the nearshore waters. Strong high pressure builds over the region early Sunday and remains overhead through the day Monday bringing quiet marine conditions for the period. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase again late Monday into Tuesday as the next low pressure system begins to move into the central Great Lakes.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ049.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ055-063.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ054.

Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ441>443.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ421-422.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . CB MARINE . KDK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 14 mi75 min WNW 11 G 12 68°F
45165 23 mi15 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 66°F 63°F1 ft52°F
TWCO1 23 mi25 min WNW 11 G 13 61°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 28 mi45 min NNW 7 G 11 67°F 1019.3 hPa42°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 32 mi75 min W 1.9 G 1.9 65°F 1019 hPa (+0.0)
CMPO1 34 mi105 min NNE 1 68°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 35 mi75 min NNW 4.1 G 11 66°F 1019.3 hPa (+0.3)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 40 mi45 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 66°F 63°F1018.9 hPa49°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI6 mi20 minNNW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F43°F43%1019 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI15 mi19 minWNW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F39°F38%1019.3 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI17 mi22 minNW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy65°F43°F45%1019.5 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI24 mi22 minNW 1210.00 miA Few Clouds68°F41°F38%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONZ

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS3W4CalmNW8NW6W4W3NW4W4NW5NW7NW9NW12
G18
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N10NW10
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1 day agoSW13SW7SW6SW5S4S5S8SW5CalmSW5SW7SW6SW5W6SW5SW6NW16
G21
N13N7NW5NW6NW6NW7NW3
2 days agoSE4E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S4S10S8S5S5S4S5S6S5S7S6S7S8SE9S10
G14
SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.