Friday, November27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Estral Beach, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 5:04PM Friday November 27, 2020 5:54 PM EST (22:54 UTC) Moonrise 3:53PMMoonset 4:45AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0057.000000t0000z-201115t1715z/ 1150 Am Est Sun Nov 15 2020
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. However a gale warning remains in effect. Boaters and mariners should continue to refer to the latest marine weather messages for the latest information. Lat...lon 4172 8347 4173 8345 4173 8350 4177 8350 4196 8328 4202 8323 4202 8324 4205 8319 4205 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 time...mot...loc 1648z 233deg 42kt 4197 8303
LCZ423 Expires:202011151659;;883356 FZUS73 KDTX 151650 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1150 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 LCZ423-LEZ444-151659-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estral Beach, MI
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location: 42.02, -83.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 272103 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 403 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

DISCUSSION.

Predictability late Sun night-Tues System:

Palpable energy/attention remains centered on the storm system that is expected to deepen east of the Mississippi River Valley Monday . then occlude/stall out Tuesday somewhere near the Eastern Great Lakes and Northeastern United States. Low deepening is tied to the interaction and phasing of two larger wavelength shortwaves; the closed low that releases off of the subtropical jet near New Mexico as an edge wave, and a deep Alaskan upper level trough that digs down into the Northern Plains. The details for the sensible weather forecast here locally hinges on the timing/placement of both the merger of potential vorticity anomalies along with the eventual positive-to-negative tilting of the main northern stream energy as it rounds through the subgeostrophic trough base on Tuesday.

Summarization of ensemble mean information supports upper level low amplification across the TN/OH River Valleys with the main surface cyclone tracking from the GOMEX shoreline 12Z Sunday 11/29 to upstate NY by 00Z Tuesday 12/1. WPC Cluster Tool are not immediately obvious in explaining the spread amongst the ensemble members, however, there is some weak signal suggesting speed of southern stream edge wave remains an influence on Day3 and a strong signal that variability is explained on Day4 by the deep Alaska trough advancing through the northern Plains. Satellite imagery suggests that a more comprehensive sampling of the Alaska wave will begin with the 00Z raobs tonight as it advances into British Columbia, full sampling by 12Z Saturday morning. This will be welcomed as Cluster Phase Space analysis shows the computed clusters remaining strongly biased toward the separate ensemble systems (i.e. EPS remains clustered together, GEFS together, CMCE together. The upcoming raob captures should help in a continued improvement in solution convergence during the next 6 to 18 hours.

Qualitative d(prog)/dt of model inits from the past 48 hours showed a shift to the south and east with the initial surface low track by an approximate 200 miles. The latest 12Z runs have largely held onto these gains with improved confidence in the start time of precipitation after 09Z Monday. Uncertainty for this event now revolves around the timing of the secondary low deepening event late Monday night and early Tuesday. The secondary low deepening will bring the possibility for the midlevel deformation axis/Trowal to stall out over portions of the cwa for an extended period from Monday night through possibly Tuesday evening. A less progressive solution trend has emerged after Day3 in the 27.12Z Operational GFS/ECMWF runs, but confidence remains low based on the aforementioned uncertainty depicted in the eof analysis at Day4.

Forecast Messaging narrative. The potential exists for widespread precipitation beginning after 09Z Monday and continuing into Tuesday. Latest forecast soundings analysis supports precipitation beginning in the form of rain Monday morning for the eastern cwa including Metro Detroit. Precipitation may then begin as snow or changeover to snow for portions of the western cwa as rates increase. Relatively warm boundary layer temperatures Monday may limit accumulations during the early portion of the event. Timing the end of the precipitation is difficult and could extend later into Tuesday night. It remains too early to offer forecast snow amounts. While the likelihood is higher than average for a longer duration accumulating snowfall Monday and Tuesday, confidence has improved that a Major Winter Storm System will miss Southeast Michigan to the south and east.

MARINE. Brisk westerly flow will back more southwesterly Saturday and continue through Sunday as high pressure passes to the south. A cold front will pass through Sunday night veering winds to the north. A large winter storm will take shape over the Ohio Valley and lift northeast Monday increasing northerly flow with gusts approaching gales Monday and Tuesday along with large waves peaking over 10 feet Monday night. Enough warm air with this system will produce mostly rain and snow mix over the marine zones.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1239 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

AVIATION .

Excess moisture to remain trapped underneath a low-level inversion will continue to hold MVFR stratus across all terminals through the afternoon and evening hours. Some brief pockets of low-end VFR will be possible this evening as wind direction veers from the southwest to west, however, expecting to see some reinforcing of the stratus deck back down to MVFR during the late evening/early night period given some extra lake enhanced moisture pulling off of Lake Huron. Additionally, some brief pockets of drizzle will be possible through the afternoon but was left out of the TAFs as confidence is low regarding chances and coverage of any drizzle. Dry air and large scale subsidence will then act to scour out cloud cover from west to east as early as after Midnight, however, went pessimistic for this TAF period with clearing trends given the the westerly flow in place. Opted with clearing trends taking place during the mid to late morning hours, with mainly clear skies by the afternoon.

For DTW . MVFR overcast is expected to hold over the terminal today well into tonight. Possible clearing of cloud cover after Midnight, with likely clearing of cloud cover by the late morning/early afternoon hours on Saturday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceiling below 5000 feet this afternoon and evening.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . CB MARINE . DRC AVIATION . AM

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 14 mi54 min SSW 12 G 13 44°F
TWCO1 23 mi24 min SSW 12 G 15 44°F 39°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 28 mi54 min SSW 8 G 9.9 44°F 1016.4 hPa (-0.3)37°F
CMPO1 34 mi84 min WSW 6 G 9.9
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 35 mi54 min SSW 6 G 9.9 45°F 1016.9 hPa (-0.4)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 40 mi54 min SW 4.1 G 8 44°F 45°F1016.5 hPa (-0.0)33°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI6 mi79 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast44°F37°F79%1016.9 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI15 mi75 minSW 710.00 miOvercast44°F40°F87%1016.9 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI17 mi61 minSW 106.00 miLight Rain44°F37°F76%1017.3 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI24 mi61 minSW 910.00 miOvercast46°F37°F71%1016.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONZ

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3SW3SW3SW3SW4W4SW3W5W4W3W3W4CalmCalmSW5SW5SW6SW9SW8SW9W8SW6SW4SW4
1 day agoSE8SE7SE5SE5SE3SE4S5S4SW3W6W5W5W5W7W7W7W8W6W8W7W7W6--W3
2 days agoSE3SE8SE6SE6
G14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.