Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Estral Beach, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 5:02PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 7:36 PM EST (00:36 UTC) Moonrise 4:52PMMoonset 7:04AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 Expires:201910270922;;927514 Fzus73 Kdtx 270913 Mwsdtx Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 513 Am Edt Sun Oct 27 2019 Lcz422-423-460-lez444-270922- /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0061.000000t0000z-191027t0915z/ 513 Am Edt Sun Oct 27 2019
.the special marine warning will expire at 515 am edt... The affected areas were... Lake st. Clair... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The showers have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4225 8318 4233 8311 4239 8295 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4264 8256 4265 8255 4266 8255 4261 8252 4255 8259 4254 8266 4238 8282 4232 8306 4224 8313 4203 8315 4196 8311 4199 8314 4195 8329 time...mot...loc 0912z 210deg 39kt 4330 8288 4297 8249
LCZ423


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estral Beach, MI
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location: 42.02, -83.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 112317 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 617 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

AVIATION.

High pressure lifting across the region tonight will maintain a dry and stable environment. This ensures VFR conditions with clear skies across the lowest 6-8 kft throughout the night. Prevailing westerly winds gradually diminishing as the high builds in this evening, then backing with time overnight. An elevated warm front will then lift across southeast Michigan Thursday. Mid level cloud with thicken ahead of this boundary late tonight and Thursday morning. The passage of this boundary may offer a brief window for some lower VFR cloud during the midday period, but retention of a dry low level environment limits this potential. South to southeast winds strengthening late in the day, sustained near 15 knots at times.

For DTW . Clear skies across the lowest 5000 ft holds tonight. Brief window for a limited coverage of lower cloud carrying 3-5k ft cigs will exist late morning/early afternoon, simply highlighted with a sct mention attm.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for ceiling briefly below 5000 feet late morning/early afternoon Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 349 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

DISCUSSION .

Intersection of sub inversion cloud layer in the -12 to -15C/microphysics sweet spot and diabatic forced potential instability layer of 1000-900mb resulted in a respectable lake effect event across Southeast Michigan during the mid to late morning hours. Subtle synoptic scale forcing existed from differential increase in absolute vorticity and very brief upper level divergence. The synoptic scale forcing was not enough to increase coverage/duration of snow activity, but did provide for some favorable lower column convergence. Merging of individual convective line elements led to some isolated convective bands exhibiting +30 dbz and convective depths that pushed upwards of 6.0 kft agl.

Eastward progression of composite H3 - H5 trof is leading to efficient lower column subsidence down a fairly upright slope from 266 -271K equivalent potential temperature surfaces this afternoon. Forecast soundings bear this subsidence out with shallow equilibrium heights crashing from 4.5 kft agl down to approximately 3.0 kft agl. Latest regional mosaic and satellite imagery shows a disruption to the convective setup with fading of lake effect streams upstream of Southeast Michigan. Expect no support for snowflakes this evening due to increase in lower column stability.

Surface high pressure will pass through the Great Lakes region tonight with the 800-600mb anticyclone center drifting eastward through the Ohio River Valley 12-18Z Thursday. Very efficient setup for southwesterly return flow to be directed right into Southeast Michigan during the period from Thursday afternoon through Friday night. Effiency of the warm advection will be so good, any residence time for the elevated warm front from south to north is expected to be very brief. For the bulk of Southeast Michigan, system relative trajectories show a setup that will be mainly anticyclonic. Therefore, high confidence in dry conditions. The one area that has been hinting at some possible QPF potential is at the Tri Cities Thursday evening with a ribbon of enhanced Lake Michigan moisture shown to line out from SW to NE clipping Bay and Midland Counties. The problem is forecast soundings are very consistent in showing no midlevel moisture above 7.0 kft agl and deeper saturation remaining within the -2 to -6C range. From this vantage point there does appear to be some freezing drizzle potential Friday 00-08Z for the extreme northern CWA.

Very aggressive jet energy packent and anomolous south positioning of jet exit region supports greatest height falls and cyclogenesis to the east of Southeast Michigan Friday through Sunday. Will need to monitor the potential for some possible overrunning precipitation back to the west (daytime Saturday) especially given the degree of jet coupling and anticyclonic curvature to jet axis aloft. Any snow accumulation potential appears to be mitigated on Saturday by surface temperatures that will be in the lower to middle 30s. The offered guidance carries chance PoPs which is a compromise of synoptic deformation brushing the extreme east and what should be a door opening to some scattered lake effect snow showers.

Deep column anticyclone is then forecasted to build into the region for the beginning of next week. Models have shown high consistency in bringing a system in vicinity of Southeast Michigan Tuesday. Strong upper level jet dynamics is expected to result in a well organized mid latitude cyclone. Latest deterministic ECMWF run shows a southern shift of the storm track with strong ridging in place over much of the Great Lakes.

MARINE .

The coldest air aloft will push to the east of the region this evening as the gradient gradually eases, leading to weakening winds over the lakes tonight. A Gale Warning and Small Craft Advisory remain in effect over portions of Lake Huron into this evening. Brief improvement in marine conditions overnight as a ridge of high pressure tracks just to our south, but southerly winds then increase through the day Thursday as low pressure moves into the western Great Lakes. Southerly gales will be likely across southern and central Lake Huron late Thursday afternoon into the evening, and a new Gale Warning has been issued during this time frame. The low pressure will bring a good likelihood for snow turning to rain across northern Lake Huron on Thursday into early Friday. Winds weaken by early Friday, remaining out of the south through the day. A low pressure system lifting up the eastern seaboard will then flip the winds northerly by Saturday and drag an arctic air mass in by Sunday, leading to unsettled marine conditions once again for the late weekend.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Gale Warning from 4 PM Thursday to midnight EST Thursday night for LHZ362-363-462-463.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ421-441- 442.

Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ361-362.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ422.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . CB MARINE . TF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TWCO1 23 mi26 min W 15 G 21
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 28 mi48 min W 7 G 12 23°F 1033.6 hPa10°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 32 mi36 min W 17 G 20 25°F 1034.5 hPa (+2.4)
CMPO1 34 mi66 min W 8.9 G 12 21°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 35 mi46 min W 8 G 11 22°F 1032.8 hPa
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 40 mi48 min WSW 7 G 12 23°F 37°F1033.3 hPa10°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI6 mi41 minW 510.00 miFair21°F11°F64%1033.2 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI15 mi41 minW 610.00 miFair20°F11°F68%1033.2 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI17 mi43 minWSW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds22°F10°F60%1034.1 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI24 mi43 minWSW 910.00 miFair22°F10°F60%1034 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONZ

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW10W13
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2 days agoS8S8S6S5S5S3S5S6S4S3S4S5S8S10
G14
S7S10SW6S9SW9SW9SW9SW9
G14
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G14
SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.