Sunday, January17, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Evanston, IL

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:48PM Sunday January 17, 2021 3:56 AM CST (09:56 UTC) Moonrise 11:11AMMoonset 10:41PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:202101171615;;047227 Fzus53 Klot 170912 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 312 Am Cst Sun Jan 17 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-171615- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 312 Am Cst Sun Jan 17 2021
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Snow after daybreak. Waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 kt. Snow ending in the late afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 kt. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 20 kt. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Evanston, IL
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location: 42.03, -87.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 170904 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 304 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021

SHORT TERM. 304 AM CST

Through Monday .

Day 4 of the light snow show is underway. Regional satellite and radar imagery depict a blossoming area of precipitation across eastern Iowa and western Illinois associated with a compact upper- level low moving toward the southeast. Ahead of the wave, freezing mist is the norm. As the morning progresses, light snow will spread eastward and encompass most if not all of northern Illinois by daybreak. The snow should become less steady this afternoon and more "showery" in coverage, especially in northwest Indiana. Flurries will then persist after dark.

Although the snowflake growth layer will be deep and close to the ground, a lack of more robust forcing should preclude snow rates and indeed amounts from getting out of hand today. The favored area for the steadiest snow rates (~.25"/hr) and highest amounts (2-3") will be within a narrow zone (1 county wide or so) just north of the path of the system within a modest 925-700 mb temperature gradient and zone of rotational deformation. Perhaps the writing is already on the wall of where this zone will materialize, given a narrow band of higher radar reflectivities already flaring from Monticello, IA to Mendota, IL at press time. Extrapolation of the band (accounting for the southeastward motion of the system) suggests the zone for steadiest snow rates may end up somewhere in between the I-88 and I- 80 corridors later this morning (note that's a smidge further north than the previous forecast package). Outside the narrow band, snow rates of 0.1-0.2"/hr should give way to an inch or two of snow, lowest near the IL/WI state line.

We do have to address a caveat, being freezing mist occurring everywhere outside the aforementioned band of snow. In fact, we have a light glaze of ice on our cars facing the wind. From what we can tell, the freezing drizzle threat should end as the core of the system moves into northern Illinois toward daybreak allowing the low-level temperature profile to become too cold for supercooled liquid. However, as cliche as it is to say, we'll be watching trends with an eagle eye over the next few hours in case we have to address a higher threat for icing than expected as was the case for our friends to our west.

Temperatures today will hold steady near 30 degrees, and light northwest winds will prevail. Tonight, overcast skies should prevent temperatures from tanking too far, with lows expected to dip to the lower 20s. Monday, mostly cloudy skies will continue with highs around 30 degrees and light west winds. Clouds may attempt to thin during the early afternoon hours before another wave dives south of the northern Plains thickening cloud cover once again.

Borchardt

LONG TERM. 222 AM CST

Monday night through Saturday .

Much of the upcoming week will be dry, though we will remain in an active flow pattern with a front draped across the region along with a strong upper jet nearby which could lead to brief periods of light snow at times, though with fairly limited duration or extent.

A sharp disturbance along the jet will move through the region Monday night. The general idea of somewhat of a southward shift to the focus of a narrow precip shield seems on track with the majority of the ensemble/deterministic suite of guidance which keeps the main axis of precipitation into central Illinois. Isentropic lift in most of our area ahead of this brief wave is subtle overall, even south of our local area. Therefore a light coating at best is possible in and south of US24. There are some modest lapse rates ahead of this wave, so wouldn't be surprised to see some flurries farther north, but the lower levels do not appear that they will saturate to support accumulating precipitation.

Another disturbance is forecast to drop through the sharp cyclonic flow aloft on Tuesday evening. The mid and upper levels will likely have become parched of any meaningful moisture by this time in the wake of Monday night's disturbance. However, forecast soundings show fairly quick re-saturation of the low-levels (under 800 mb or so). ECMWF ensemble members (60-80% of them) and the parent deterministic (for the last few runs) collectively show light QPF amounts spreading across northern Illinois during this time frame, again in a very brief window. The GFS and for the most part the GFS/CMC/SREF ensembles remain dry at this time, with the NAM just showing some spotty light QPF given the lack of deep moisture. The low levels cool such that if there is enough lower level moisture that soundings will fall in a portion of the snow production region but they still have more of a drizzle look to them. Will therefore hold at 10-20% precip chances for now given the larger model consensus for limited accumulating precipitation.

Another period to key in on is Wednesday night, though with a slightly less coherent ensemble signature for this. Some threat for isentropic-upglide-enhanced precipitation does exist into our southeast, but the multi-model consensus warrants just a low (20%) PoP mention Wednesday evening in our southeast.

Otherwise a cold front and associated drying from high pressure across the upper Midwest will usher some more January-like temperatures for Friday and Saturday along with some clearing skies. This high will open the door to potentially more active weather late in the following weekend, with a slightly more robust system in offing for parts of the region later Sunday into the start of the following week.

KMD

AVIATION. For the 06Z TAFs .

Patches of -SNDZ redeveloped late in the evening and will likely continue early this morning, with activity only briefly brushing ORD/MDW. Ceilings will continue to fluctuate between MVFR and VFR through daybreak, with pockets of IFR at RFD and possibly DPA. Otherwise, winds will generally remain W to NW at or under 10 knots.

A slow-moving mid-level wave will track southwest of the terminals today, producing a shield of -SN across northern Illinois into northwest Indiana. The northern extent of the steadier SN will likely extend northward through the Chicago terminals, but will be quite close to ORD/DPA. An extended period of MVFR visibility and low-end MVFR ceilings appear likely for all sites. A lake-enhanced snow band should form over Lake Michigan in the morning before gradually drifting south along the Illinois shore into the early afternoon. Further reductions in visibility are possible during this time as thermodynamic profiles support high snow-to-liquid ratios and larger flakes within any enhanced snow band. However, there is a chance that the band remains just east of ORD/MDW and only clips the immediate shoreline.

-SN coverage will diminish mid to late afternoon though isolated -SHSN may linger well into the evening.

Kluber

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 4 mi117 min 34°F
OKSI2 9 mi117 min W 4.1 G 7 35°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 10 mi57 min WSW 11 G 13 34°F 33°F
CNII2 13 mi42 min WSW 7 G 8 33°F 29°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 22 mi63 min WSW 4.1 G 7 32°F 1005.7 hPa32°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 24 mi117 min W 8 G 9.9 33°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 39 mi77 min WSW 6 G 7 34°F 1006.8 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 39 mi57 min W 7 G 8.9 33°F 1005.8 hPa (+0.4)
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 46 mi57 min WSW 15 G 16 34°F 32°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL12 mi65 minWSW 310.00 miOvercast34°F30°F85%1006.5 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL12 mi66 minWSW 68.00 miOvercast32°F29°F88%1006.1 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL17 mi64 minW 710.00 miOvercast33°F28°F82%1007 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWK

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SW6W5NW6NW7NW8NW10NW10NW11NW9NW10NW11NW9NW8NW8NW5W5W6W7W6W4SW3W3W3
1 day agoS6S8S8S6SE8SE5SE4S4S4Calm--CalmS3CalmN3CalmCalmW4SW3SW3W3SW4S4S5
2 days agoSE3S4S4S5S6SE7S7S10S7S9SE7S10S11S10SE12SE11
G21
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.