Friday, July10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Evanston, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:29PM Friday July 10, 2020 2:20 AM CDT (07:20 UTC) Moonrise 11:59PMMoonset 10:51AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:202007100900;;600105 Fzus53 Klot 100208 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 908 Pm Cdt Thu Jul 9 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-100900- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 908 Pm Cdt Thu Jul 9 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Friday evening...
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west toward daybreak. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Friday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 kt. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Friday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Evanston, IL
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location: 42.03, -87.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 100530 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

UPDATE. 923 PM CDT

The airmass ahead of the approaching/more organized area of thunderstorms is still fairly unstable (> 2000 J/KG of MLCAPE), but outflow is rushing out ahead of this thunderstorm complex. In addition, effective shear remains on the lower end of the spectrum. Therefore, the severe weather threat is low. Still, expect thunderstorms to expand in coverage. Winds will likely reach 35 to locally 40 mph in some areas, which is a tad lower than what was locally observed earlier this evening. These winds will arrive even ahead of the thunderstorms with a quick shift to the northwest. Forcing will decrease with southeastward extent.

KMD

SHORT TERM. 257 PM CDT

Through Friday night .

The chances for some severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall continue to be the primary concern for northern IL late this afternoon through the evening.

Thunderstorm activity over our area has remained isolated to this point. However, thunderstorms have been on the uptick to our west over IA early this afternoon in advance of an approaching MCV over central IA. The MCV will track eastward into northwestern IL this evening, and over northeastern IL tonight. As it does so, it will continue to interact with an uncapped and unstable environment (1800 MLCAPE per the 18z DVN RAOB) thus leading to more numerous showers and storm development in a band or two over northern IL into this evening. The threat of severe thunderstorms will continue to be primarily focused on some isolated instances of damaging wind gusts over northern central, and perhaps parts of northeastern IL this evening. This threat should wane across the area later this evening and overnight.

The other threat with these storms this evening into tonight is the threat for some periods of very heavy rainfall. Since the storms are expected to develop into north to south oriented bands, which will be nearly parallel to the steering layer flow, the potential exists for a period of training storms over northern IL this evening. This adds some concern for the potential for some areas of flash flooding as the rain rates in these storms could easily exceed 2" per hour. So, even though some of the area has been on the dry side lately, I cannot rule out this possibility especially in more urban areas. We have opted to hold off on issuing a flash flood watch, but this will need to be monitored closely for portions of northern IL this evening.

Some showers and storms could linger over eastern IL and northwestern IL late tonight, but this activity should begin to shift out of the area Friday morning. Thereafter, it appears that Friday afternoon could be mainly dry across the area. Temperatures should also be cooler on Friday as some breezy northwesterly winds develop and usher in a bit cooler airmass. Expect high temperatures to be in the mid to upper 80s.

KJB

LONG TERM. 316 PM CDT

Saturday through Thursday .

Northwest flow expected over the weekend with some model discrepancies regarding potential northwest flow shortwave. NAM and GFS both have a more amplified shortwave (likely result of convective enhancement) with an attendant greater convective risk, though with differing timing (GFS Saturday night vs NAM Sunday). The ECMWF doesn't really have any meaningful shortwave with the northwest flow this weekend and would support largely a dry weekend. While a more amplified solution cannot be ruled out, leaning toward the less amplified ECMWF solution. NBM pops were fairly aggressive for the weekend, so reverted back to previous shift's lower pops. Certainly the NAM/GFS would support hanging on to these pops, and should these more amplified solutions verify, then pops would likely need to be bumped up once confidence in timing increases.

Would appear the massive/intense heat dome over the central and western U.S. looks like it will briefly bulge northeastward into the area Tues/Wed time frame in advance of a northern stream shortwave trough. This should allow temps to rebound back into the 90s by Tuesday with NBM keeping 90s going the remainder of the week. Worth noting that if convection/convective debris were to linger during the afternoon, then there could be an unscheduled break in the 90 degree heat.

Tightening geopotential height gradient between the strong upper ridge and northern stream trough will result in a corridor of stronger flow aloft, which could certainly support a ring of fire type pattern with attendant strong/severe convective threat on the northern flanks of the upper ridge. At this distance, hard to say where exactly this will set-up and if it will affect our CWA. Our best chances look to be in the midweek Tue-Thu time frame, which is where NBM pops were targeting the best chances. Beyond that time frame, medium range ensemble guidance continues to suggest the heart of the upper ridge will build northeast into the Midwest next weekend. If this pans out, an even more intense spell of heat would be possible at that time.

- Izzi

AVIATION. For the 06Z TAFs .

* Period of scattered showers and lower MVFR ceilings through early Friday morning.

* Breezy northwest winds with gusts near 25 kt through the day Friday.

Weak surface low pressure, associated with a convectively enhanced mid-level short wave, was centered along the IL/WI border near KUGN at 05Z. An area of rain and scattered thunderstorms was occurring ahead of a cold front trailing from this low, moving east over Lake Michigan and approaching the IL/IN border farther south. Thunderstorms will be moving east of the terminals shortly, with a period of stratiform rain showers lingering through around 07Z for the Chicago terminals, tapering to a few isolated to scattered showers overnight until the mid-level trough axis moves east of the area after sunrise. While conditions remain largely VFR outside of the heavier showers, an area of 1200-1500 foot MVFR (and some patchy 500-900 foot IFR) ceilings was trailing the cold front across southwest WI and northwest IL. These lower ceilings are expected to spread east across the terminals overnight, and may linger into the early-mid morning prior to dissipating/moving east of the area. VFR conditions are then expected for the remainder of the forecast period.

Winds have become light/variable in the wake of the stronger convective line and within the baggy gradient associated with the weak surface low. The gradient will tighten up in the wake of the cold front during the pre-dawn hours, with winds settling in from the northwest and becoming breezy. Gusts near 25 kts are likely through the day, before easing later this afternoon.

Ratzer

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . Beach Hazards Statement . INZ001-INZ002 . 9 AM Friday to 9 PM Friday.

LM . Small Craft Advisory . LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744- LMZ745 . 9 AM Friday to 9 PM Friday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45174 7 mi21 min W 5.8 G 7.8 70°F 72°F1 ft1007 hPa (-1.0)69°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 10 mi31 min NW 6 G 6 72°F 72°F
CNII2 13 mi21 min SSW 7 G 8 73°F 68°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 22 mi51 min Calm G 1.9 72°F 1007.8 hPa72°F
45187 32 mi21 min 66°F 63°F1 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 39 mi81 min SW 1 G 8 71°F 1008.1 hPa
45170 43 mi21 min 7.8 G 9.7 75°F 79°F3 ft70°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL12 mi29 minWSW 310.00 miFair73°F72°F96%1007.7 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL12 mi30 minW 310.00 miOvercast74°F70°F88%1007.4 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL17 mi28 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast73°F70°F90%1006.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWK

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW3S5CalmSW3SE3SE9S10S9
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1 day agoCalmSW3CalmCalmN3E4NE3CalmSE3Calm4E6NE4NE5E7E5SE6CalmSE3SE4SW4S3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW8W6W5SW5W9W5CalmSE9E7S7S8CalmNW17
G24
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.