Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gibraltar, MI

DISCUSSION

Temperatures climbed out of the deep cold hole this morning and have risen into the single numbers this afternoon. With very light winds, very low dew pts, and lingering surface ridging, radiational cooling could allow for a brief dip below back below zero this evening (across the normally colder sites) before clouds thicken up sufficiently.

The 12z Euro came in reasonably close to its 00z run; thus, the previous updated discussion and thoughts remain intact, and no adjustments to headlines/amounts will be made. To recap: total forecasted snowfall amounts, 5-8 inch for Monroe, 4-7 inches for Lenawee, Washtenaw, and Wayne counties, and 2-4 inches (with isolated 5-inch amounts) along the M-59 corridor counties.

The southern wave is just now moving into Mexico, and does not reach western Ohio until late Sunday. This forcing will support our best snowfall rates Sunday afternoon, as specific humidity in the 850-700 mb layer peaks just above 2 g/kg over Monroe county and far southern Wayne/Washtenaw counties. With the 850-700 mb circulation tracking through Northwest Ohio into western Lake Erie and forecast soundings indicating saturation/forcing hanging around in the -10 to -12 C layer, snow to liquid ratios will average less than 20:1. Also, with the long-duration light snow developing late tonight and continuing Sunday morning, some modest compaction/snow settling needs to be accounted for, unlike most model total snowfall forecasts.

The good news is this wave is fast moving and snowfall should diminish fairly fast Sunday evening. Although, some Lake Huron enhancement may prolong activity snow showers into Sunday night across eastern areas, extensive ice over southern Lake Huron and low level winds backing quickly should help limit intensity and duration of bands potentially impacting the eastern Thumb region.

Continued cold next week, as the next clipper system/re-enforcing shot of cold air (850 mb temps in the negative lower 20s) arrives on Tuesday. Snow showers associated with the arctic front brings the potential of a dusting to 2 inches of snow accumulation.

Another shortwave and even colder shot is progged to arrive Wednesday night, per 12z Euro. Wind chills Thursday morning have a good chance to reach -15 F as 850 mb temps drop to around -25 C and sustained winds hang around 15 mph. Otherwise, Friday night could see advisory type wind chills as winds look to stay up.

MARINE

Lighter winds persist through the day as a strong high pressure system over the Great Lakes departs into the continental northeast and into Quebec. Light snow to then expand from Lake Erie up through southern Lake Huron overnight as an expansive low pressure winter storm system moves through the Appalachia region. Embedded lake effect snow bands will likely through central and southern Lake Huron Sunday into Monday. Cold air is reinforced within the wake of this low across the Great Lakes early next week, which will bring the return of elevated wind gusts through the midweek period.



CLIMATE

Flint set a record low today (-24 degrees), and was just 1 degree away from tying the all time record low temp of 25 degrees (set in JAN 18 1976 AND Feb 20 2015).

The record low min temps for today, January 24th.

Detroit: -13 Degrees (Set in 1963)
Flint: -24 Degrees (Set in 2026)
Saginaw: -13 Degrees (Set in 1963)

The record low max temps for today, January 24th (Flint and Saginaw still have not risen above these values today, as of 3 PM).

Detroit: 4 Degrees (Set in 1963)
Flint: 5 Degrees (Set in 1963)
Saginaw: 8 Degrees (Set in 1961)

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1215 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

AVIATION...

Quiet cold conditions will prevail through midnight. Otherwise, advancing high cloud field associated with a developing large scale winter system will overspread the airspace through the balance of the daylight hours. The deeper moisture profile associated with the storm system will crawl in from the south through the course of the overnight hours - ushering in MVFR ceilings and the onset of light snow. The longest duration of snow with the poorest conditions will be across the Detroit airspace. While light snow will persist through the morning, the most intense snowfall with the greatest impact (dropping into IFR around Detroit) will be during the afternoon hours on Sunday. Winds will be modest in strength and slowly back around from east to north as the surface low passes to the south of the region.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings aob 5000 feet Sunday after 09z.

* High in precipitation type of snow.

* Medium in ceilings of 200 ft or visibilities of 1/2SM in falling snow after 18z Sunday.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night for MIZ063-068>070.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night for MIZ075-076-082.

Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night for MIZ083.

Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.