Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Harbor, OR

FXUS66 KMFR 231123 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 423 AM PDT Wed Apr 23 2025

.Updated Aviation Discussion.

DISCUSSION
Satellite image shows the bulk of the cloud cover in northern Cal and in portions of Klamath and Lake County. Radar is showing returns in northern Cal and portions of Klamath County.
Mount Shasta is reporting light rain. Based on the radar returns, most of the precipitation is confined to central and eastern Siskiyou county early this morning. During the course of the morning, light precipitation will migrate northeast into southern Lake, southeast Klamath and portions of Modoc County.

Instability is marginal at best in southeast Siskiyou and Modoc County late this afternoon into early this evening, and we'll keep a slight chance of storms there.

Weak upper ridging builds in Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, then an upper trough will approach from the west resulting in a chance for showers and isolated storms along and west of the Cascades. The CAMS (convective allowing models) which shows radar reflectivity shows convective showers and thunderstorms developing from late Thursday morning and lasting into Thursday afternoon with most of the action along and west of the Cascades. Given the upper pattern with the upper trough still offshore Thursday afternoon typically results in increasing instability east of the upper low.

Additionally, the HRRR calibrated thunderstorms also shows the highest vales along and west of the Cascades mid to late Thursday afternoon, with storms shifting over the Cascades Thursday evening.

Friday and Saturday are shaping up to be cool and unsettled with isolated to scattered showers, with showers most frequent in the afternoon and early evening hours due to daytime heating.

The upper trough will begin to shift east Sunday with showers diminishing and becoming more isolated.

Evidence is pointing towards dry and mild weather for most of next week. -Petrucelli
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