Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Harbor, OR

AVIATION
16/18Z TAFs...Conditions will be mainly VFR today, except for local MVFR and terrain obscurations along the coast and along western and northern facing mountain slopes. Clouds are clearing through the morning, with VFR prevailing areawide by this afternoon.
Another front approaches the area late this afternoon through tonight, with clouds and showers spreading inland along with areas of MVFR and local MVFR/IFR ceilings. -BPN/Hermansen

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 850 AM PDT Fri May 16 2025/

DISCUSSION...The forecast is on track for this morning. Overnight cloud cover is starting to break up under daylight, but an approaching upper trough will bring more clouds this afternoon and evening. A concern for this shift will be nocturnal thunderstorm chances east of the Cascades. SPC HRRR guidance shows agreement for thunderstorms developing over Modoc and Lake counties late tonight into early Saturday morning. Anything that does develop looks to be scattered and below severe thresholds, but this period will get a closer look. Additional showery activity is expected across most of the area through the day Saturday.

Please see the previous discussion for more details on the short- and long-term forecasts. -TAD

MARINE
Updated 830 AM Friday, May 16, 2025
Gusty north winds and steep seas are weakening today. Low pressure will bring another round of gusty north winds, as well as areas of fog and showers tonight into Saturday. Increasing west-northwest swell is also expected this weekend. Calmer conditions are expected early next week, then the thermal trough returns by midweek. -BPN/Hermansen

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 305 AM PDT Fri May 16 2025/

DISCUSSION...Showers have moved out of the area this morning, but extensive areas of clouds remain banked up against the western and northern mountains slopes. These clouds will gradually diminish through the day, resulting in a mild and mostly sunny afternoon.

Another trough will arrive in the area tonight through Saturday, and will be quite similar to the one experienced earlier this week, though with less precipitation. Expect breezy winds again this afternoon and evening as the trough approaches the region, and even more so on Saturday as the trough moves overhead and enhances shower activity. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible Saturday afternoon along and east of the Cascades, and to a lesser extent in the Umpqua Basin, but convection should be mostly concentrated over Lake and Modoc counties, where instability is greatest. Current high res model guidance suggests the area around Lakeview and Alturas will be the most active area, with storms generally tracking west to east. Storms are not expected to be strong, but gusty winds and small hail are possible.

This upper trough moves east of the region late Saturday, with precipitation chances diminishing for most of the area, aside from some lingering showers along the coast, and along the Cascades north of Crater Lake.

Northwest flow persists through Sunday with a shortwave passing to our north, over northern Oregon and Washington. This could maintain some shower activity across far northern areas, but most of the region will remain dry with cooler than normal temperatures.

Low impact weather is generally expected for the remainder of next week. Temperatures will rebound to seasonal normals, maybe a few degrees warmer with overall dry conditions expected. Some ensembles show a weak front pushing through the region Monday into Tuesday, so there is a slight chance of precipitation in the forecast for areas along and north of North Bend/Roseburg/Crater Lake. Any precipitation amounts with this front will be light, and wouldn't be surprised to see precipitation chances dwindle as the time gets closer. -BPN/BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.