Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Brookings, OR

FXUS66 KMFR 111039 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 228 AM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

DISCUSSION
Satellite imagery early this morning is showing plenty of low stratus and fog in the west side valleys and along the coast. I couldn't find any evidence of precipitation in our forecast area from yesterday's weak strung out frontal system, but it did serve to deepen the marine layer across NW sections of the CWA So, what was largely fog yesterday morning north of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide (Roseburg/North Bend) is stratus this morning. Shallower moisture exists south of Glendale, into the Rogue/Illinois valleys, portions of the Applegate valley and the valleys of central/western Siskiyou County. Fog in those locations is reducing visibility to one quarter of a mile or less. As such, we've issued a Dense Fog Advisory again until 9 am PST this morning. Use caution when driving and slow down in low/poor visibility. Pedestrians/cyclists should also wear bright or reflective clothing to assist drivers in poor visibility conditions.

After the fog burns off, expect another dry, mild afternoon with high temperatures largely in the 60s. Even a few spots could get close to or surpass 70F. Expect another night of west side valley fog tonight into Wednesday morning.

Pattern shifts quickly Wednesday as a deep offshore trough swings toward the coast. Models continue to show a fairly strong pressure gradient (MFR-RDD) and mid-level flow initially of (~50-60 kt) during the day Wednesday. This will result in strengthening south winds along the coast and also in the usual spots -- the Shasta Valley and over the East Side. It doesn't appear it will come together soon enough to meet High Wind criteria along the coast, but gusts of 45-55 mph are expected.
Breezy to windy conditions will develop Wednesday farther inland, especially in the Shasta Valley and over the East Side, but also perhaps here in the Rogue Valley. Models show mid-level flow increasing to and peaking at 65-75 kt Wednesday evening/night, so High Wind Watches remain in effect for the Shasta Valley and the East Side. These will likely be upgraded to warnings later today.
The Rogue Valley from Ashland to Medford and the Klamath Basin around Klamath Falls have a near 90 percent chance of reaching Wind Advisory criteria (>45 mph gusts). So, expect additional wind headlines to be coming soon.

Once again, snow levels will initially be very high (~8000 ft), so precipitation, even in the mountains, will begin as rain. It does look like snow levels drop some, but not as much as it looked like yesterday. So, down to around 6000 feet by Thursday morning, then as low as 4000-4500 feet Thursday night into Friday. Some snow will accumulate above 5000 feet, but now it looks like 1-3" with locally 3-5" up around Crater Lake. In terms of rainfall, this looks like another Coast Range and into Siskiyou County event, where amounts of 1-3 inches will be common. West Side valleys will have a good amount of downsloping, so amounts there will be less than that -- generally 0.25-0.50" (bulk of precip coming very late Wednesday night into Thursday). But, post- frontal showers continue Thursday in moist, onshore flow. It'll remain breezy and turn cooler compared to earlier in the week.

Trough axis shifts east of the Cascades Friday, so precipitation chances should lower. It also doesn't look quite as chilly Friday with high temps closer to the seasonal normals (low to mid 50s west side and upper 40s east side). A closed low will settle southward into SoCal/NW Mexico Friday night into Saturday and this will allow a ridge axis to form over us. There is a warm front in there that could bring some higher PoPs and light precip from the coast to the Cascades, but from the Umpqua Divide south and eastward, Saturday should be dry and milder.

Models lift the main moisture axis to our north Saturday/Saturday night, but the next front is forecast to approach the coast Sunday. -Spilde/BPN
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