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LMZ080 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 239 Pm Cst Mon Dec 4 2023
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south. Chance of rain overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming east late in the morning, then becoming northeast 10 to 20 kt early in the afternoon becoming north late. Chance of rain. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest. Chance of rain. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds to 30 kt. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Thursday night..South winds to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Friday..Southwest winds to 30 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north 15 to 25 kt. Chance of rain. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 041915 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 215 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 215 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Light snow and rain is expected late tonight into Tuesday. Snow accumulations up to an inch are possible, mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces along and north of highway 30. Dry and warmer conditions then follow for the second half of the week.



SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Key Messages:

* Snow, possibly mixed with rain, will expand over the area late tonight into Tuesday morning.

* Light, slushy snow accumulations will be possible, mainly on elevated and grassy surfaces Tuesday morning along and north of US 30.

* Main roads should remain mainly wet, though there is a chance for roads to become slushy where/if more enhanced snow bands setup.

Precipitation remains on target to expand over the area late tonight into Tuesday morning as a hybrid clipper drops southeast into the area. Decent moisture advection within the leading corridor of system relative isentropic upglide should allow light precip to break out from west to east in the ~9-13z window. Ptype may initially begin (or mix) with rain before full saturation and dynamic cooling allows for all snow for a time Tuesday morning. As mentioned in previous discussions, soundings and fcst x-sections continue to depict reduced stability above transient areas of elevated frontogenesis in mainly the 12-18z window. A period of enhanced snowfall rates and slushy accums on roads are possible if/where any banding occurs, though confidence on location and potential impacts are low given a marginal thermal profile and expected brief residence time within any stronger banding. A model consensus does favor areas along and just north of the US 30 corridor in nrn IN for the best chance for a half inch to inch of wet snow near the 700 mb shear axis.

Precipitation into the afternoon will trend lighter and more narrowed near the low level surface reflection tracking southeast through central and southern portions of the forecast area. The gradual loss of deeper moisture and slight warming of near sfc temps lead to a mix with drizzle/light rain during this time with no additional snow accum/impacts.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Key Messages:

* Scattered lake effect rain and snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning in nw IN and sw MI. Minor snow accums possible.

* Dry, breezy and unseasonably mild weather is expected for the second half of the week.

* Active weather returns this weekend (chances for rain/snow/wind)

A brief period of cool northerly flow will bring at least scattered lake effect rain and snow showers into nw IN and sw MI overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Forecast soundings are rather shallow with the convective layer below the dendritic growth. The result would be more of a light drizzle/rain scenario within the pivoting lake plume.

Flow trajectories will quickly back to the wsw late Wednesday through the end of the week under building heights aloft. This will occur in advance of a longwave trough digging into the Western US.
The result will be some sunshine, unseasonably mild temps and breezy southwest winds in time for Thursday and Friday.

12z model guidance continues to slowly hone in on a more active pattern in time for this weekend. The Western US trough will eject east and send a developing sfc cyclone northeast through the Midwest and Great Lakes. As expected, there is considerable model spread in track/timing/strength at this forecast range. No adjustments were made from the NBM as a result with the overall evolution suggesting rain developing near a leading baroclinic zone, transition to snow showers and gusty within trailing wrap around for the end of the weekend.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Satellite shows some improvements here-and-there this afternoon, but the overall short term picture remains MVFR BKN/OVC.
Improvement late this afternoon, toward 00z this evening, is plausible as the clipper system exiting southern Indiana departs and trajectories off Lake Michigan become westerly. Clouds were eroding over IL but have filled in, while clearing continues over portions of WI. Confidence is low for the timing of VFR conditions and is low for the duration of any VFR conditions.
Model guidance favors MVFR ceilings sticking around.

The next clipper arrives late tonight, just prior to sunrise and looks to bring a quick onset of snow to KSBN, and soon after KFWA.
A period of LIFR conditions is possible as the snow moves through at both sites.

Temperatures are expected to gradually rise above freezing through the day such that a transition to -RA or -RASN is anticipated toward 18z along with decreasing intensity.
Total snowfall less than 1" is expected. Pavement temperatures will be critical for any accumulation on pavement.

Precipitation ends just outside this TAF period.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

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Northern Indiana, IN,