Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bridgman, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 246 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Postfrontal CAA now well underway with 850mb temps dropping into the low single digits in the wake of slowly departing mid/upper low.
Persistent low level cyclonic flow could support a few sprinkles in our N/NE zones at times today but expect only trace amounts with most of our area remaining entirely dry. Biggest sensible weather impact today will be ample clouds due to residual boundary layer moisture in CAA regime as well as some gusty winds. Despite expected cloud cover, still expect decent mixing with momentum transfer from forecast soundings suggesting frequent 30-35mph gusts. Calendar-day highs likely already reached with afternoon temps probably topping out in the mid 60s...roughly 5-10 degrees below normal. Overall not a great weather day. Sunday will be much better with less clouds, less wind and highs a few degrees warmer away from the lake.

A large upper low is expected to develop over the Rockies late this weekend and eventually eject eastward during the middle of next week.
There remain some important track details to work out given a fairly complicated interaction with persistent Quebec trough/upper low. No major changes to NBM initialization which was in line with previous forecast in showing high PoP's mainly Tue into Wed. A few embedded thunderstorms remain possible but the risk of severe weather is low given limited instability north of low track. Exact rainfall amounts highly uncertain at this range but not expected to cause any flooding given recent (mainly) dry conditions. This pattern will also support highs well below normal (low/mid 60s) for much of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 639 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025

An upper low passes by to the north of the area and heads towards the northeastern US. Behind a cold FROPA, some 850 mb moisture lingers starting around sunrise into daytime. LAV guidance has some MVFR CIGs , but the height of the moisture appears to be just a little too high for complete confidence in MVFR CIGs . Tracing back the location of MVFR CIGs advecting in does show that those CIGs do exist across WI so that increases confidence. Therefore, will include in these TAFs, but there is a chance that they could be pulled in the 12z TAFs. Otherwise, expect southwest winds to slowly veer towards westerly by the end of the TAF period and 20 to 30 kt wind gusts to be experienced.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043- 046.